Gale Warning 264, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 AM AKDT Sat Mar 22 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A weak low hovers over the Alaska Interior near the Al-Can
border. Snow showers near Paxson and the Tok Cut Off will
gradually decrease through today. Meanwhile, a compact low
skirting the northern Gulf of Alaska coastline today will bring
periods of showers to western Prince William Sound and eastern
Kenai Peninsula. Lower elevations can expect rain while higher
elevations from around 500 feet could see snow showers. Showers in
Kodiak become more likely tonight through Sunday as another low
approaches the western Gulf of Alaska. Confidence decreases beyond
this weekend in regards to the timing of showers as each
shortwave trough moves through the area.

Overall daytime highs will remain above normal for this time of
year. No significant weather or cold producers are on the horizon
through at least this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(This Afternoon through Monday afternoon)...

Steady, cool, northerly flow entering the Bering Sea is promoting
a stable layer of stratus covering much of the region. Areas of
stratus may develop lower, resulting in patchy fog near the
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Snow showers falling from this
stratus layer across the Aleutian Chain will continue this
weekend. In Southwest Alaska, an inverted trough has built over
the area, increasing the likelihood for light snow showers across
the region, and are expected to persist into late this weekend and
early next week.

On Sunday, a shortwave will drop past the Pribilof Islands,
allowing for a period of snow showers and small craft winds. This
system is expected to lack the organization to produce more
intense winds and snowfall rates, bringing instead some gusty
winds and the chance for some light snowfall rates. This is
followed by a broad ridge pushing in from the west. By Sunday
afternoon, the ridge will envelope the western half of the
Aleutians. Continued show showers and colder temperatures from
northerly flow remains. By Monday, the large ridge will move into
the Eastern Aleutians, drying much of the region. However, gale
force gap winds will continue near the Alaska peninsula as
northerly winds linger. Snow showers in the southwest mainland
will slowly dwindle through Monday as the low is stretched.

By late Sunday evening, the next main feature is set to enter the
Western Bering and Aleutians. A broad front bringing gale force southerly
flow and moisture, expectedly returning rainfall or a rain/snow
mix as the front steadily sweeps eastward across the Chain and
Bering, potentially reaching Adak by Monday afternoon.

-CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday - Friday)...

The extended period starts out with an upper level low pressure
over the central Alaska and extending deep into the North Pacific.
A strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the western portion
of the state and the Bering Sea. As the week progresses the upper
level features become entrenched, forming a blocking pattern
across the entire forecast region.

This pattern will setup a prolonged moderate northerly wind
pattern across the Bearing Sea, Aleutian Islands and the western
part of the State, allowing cooler air to move into this region.
The Upper level low over the central part of Alaska and the Gulf
of Alaska will allow mostly weak surface lows to transit along the
low and trough axis bringing periods shower/snowy precipitation
along the Gulf Coast and Eastern Alaskan Peninsula.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds continue. On Saturday
Turnagain Arm winds increase, but are expected to remain south of
the terminal.

&&