Gale Warning 258, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
548 AM AKDT Wed Mar 19 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Much of today's weather will be focused over the Gulf of Alaska
and mainly impacts the eastern Kenai, Prince William Sound, and
northern Gulf coast. The first of two fronts has moved over the
Kenai and western Chugach Mountains and is producing a thin band
of precipitation. Ceilings of 6-8 kft are preventing much if
anything to reach the ground as it starts to push into the lower
Susitna Valley and northern Cook Inlet. Given the upper low
sitting near the Seward Peninsula with a front extending from the
low southwards to Kamishak Bay, increasing convergence from the
westwards progressing front will allow ceilings to gradually lower
and some light snow to reach the ground. However, shortwave
ridging building westwards across inland Southcentral will help to
cut precip off by later today.

The second front is already starting to move into Prince William
Sound as of about 5 am this morning. Another band of precipitation
will accompany the front, becoming more showery as it pushes west.
For the past several days, models have favored a low deepening over
the eastern Gulf then tracking north along the coast before
retrograding west. Models have all latched on to this scenario and
satellite imagery concurs that the progged low is quickly deepening
over the eastern Gulf this morning. Yesterday models favored the
surface low tracking towards Prince William Sound, but have now
shifted the track slightly south with the low moving into the
northern Kenai Peninsula near Seward by early Thursday morning. Gale
force winds will accompany the compact low as it moves across the
northern Gulf with the strongest winds on the north side of the
low.

Strong easterly flow will allow for modest upsloping along
the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. Temperatures today through early
evening should remain warm enough for mostly rain at lower
elevations. However, as the low nears the eastern Kenai late
Wednesday, cooling temperatures and dynamic cooling will allow for
rain to change over to a mix or all snow. The western Kenai
should remain mostly dry as cross-barrier flow increases with the
exception of the southern Kenai. As the low tracks inland it will
take a more southerly track with increasing showers for the
southern Kenai Peninsula. Meanwhile, another low will cross the
Aleutians from the Bering into the southwest Gulf then lift up
towards Kodiak Island. Its front will lift across the central Gulf
before rotating back towards Kodiak Island Thursday morning. Rain
showers will spread over the island by the afternoon then
gradually wind down as the low weakens.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A surface low in the southern Bering Sea has brought light snow
to the Pribilof Islands, eastern Aleutians, and the Alaska
Peninsula overnight as its front expanded eastward. Mostly clear
skies over Southwest Alaska will give way to increasing cloudiness
through the day. Precipitation is expected to diminish, remaining
south of Bristol Bay as the front becomes increasingly zonal in
orientation and the center of the system moves south of the Alaska
Peninsula late this afternoon. This will reduce chances for
precipitation for both the Bering and Southwest mainland and draw
a colder airmass south across the Bering.

By Thursday morning the low will have moved south of Kodiak
Island. Shortwaves rotating around the eastern and northern sides
of the system might retain enough energy after crossing the
Alaska Range to bring light precipitation the eastern Bristol Bay
and lower Kuskokwim Valley. An upper-level low north of the
Bering Strait will continue to draw shortwaves north across the
western side of the state into the weekend.

On Friday morning, another North Pacific low moves into the area
but remains south of the Aleutian chain. There will be potential
gale force winds for gaps and passes along the chain and Alaska
Peninsula through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday - Tuesday)...

Persistent troughing early next week across the Gulf of Alaska,
with several waves of low pressure rotating counterclockwise along
the Gulf coast. Rain/snow chances will linger from Friday into
early next week from the Copper River Delta into Prince William
Sound. Further inland, drier conditions with normal to just above
normal temperatures are anticipated.

To the west, a broad frontal system will impact the Western and
Central Aleutians on Friday before giving way to a highly
amplified ridge of high pressure over the Bering. Northerly flow
should expand in coverage across the Bering through early next
week with drier conditions and below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Southeasterly winds gusting to 30 knots diminish and shift
out of the north later this morning. Then, VFR conditions with
light northerly winds prevail through at least Thursday morning.
On Thursday, there is a low chance of snow showers which could
intermittently bring cig/vis down to MVFR. More likely is a
possible shift back to southeasterly winds with the Turnagain Arm
winds briefly working in over the terminal and gusting to 25
knots.

&&