Gale Warning 231, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
418 PM AKDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Sunday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon)...

Active weather continues through Monday, with improving
conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday. Models have come into better
agreement with the low currently near the Barren Islands, leading
to increased forecast confidence through early tomorrow morning.
However, there's still uncertainty as another low moves in from
the east and skirts along the north Gulf coast through Monday. In
terms of hazards, the concern for heavy snow in East Turnagain
Arm and Eastern Kenai Peninsula has diminished as above-freezing
temperatures will likely limit overall accumulations, even as snow
continues overnight tonight. The other hazard we'll be monitoring
is the potential for enhanced winds and precipitation along Prince
William Sound as the second low moves through on Monday.

Diving into the details... radar shows widespread showers moving
across Prince William Sound and Eastern Kenai Peninsula, with a
few showers even producing light snow or flurries for Western
Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage. Previously, there was concern for
heavy snow along East Turnagain Arm and Eastern Kenai Peninsula,
but temperatures in the mid to high 30s today have severely cut
back on snow accumulations in these areas. These higher
temperatures are leading to a rain/snow mix or plain rain along
the coast, and are melting any accumulations that might have
occurred earlier today. Area webcams seem to show no new snow on
the ground, at least not near sea level. Temperatures may dip a
little tonight, but based on what we've seen today, there likely
won't be snow accumulations of more than a handful of inches at
lower elevations.

By tomorrow morning, forecast confidence dips as models continue
to struggle with the track of a compact surface low that slides
westward along the north Gulf coast. There's growing consensus
that this compact low will eventually be absorbed by the low
currently near the Barren Islands, but models are having a hard
time resolving this feature. This will primarily impact
communities along Prince William Sound and Eastern Kenai
Peninsula, and perhaps the northern portion of Kodiak Island. As
such, stay tuned to the forecast for potential changes. For now,
we're anticipating the potential for gusty outflow winds to pick
up in response to this low (especially through Thompson Pass),
with the strength of these winds highly dependent on the track of
the low.

By Tuesday afternoon, the merged low will weaken and sag
southwards into the Gulf, leading to drier conditions for much of
Southcentral. However, an upper low moving in from the Yukon
Tuesday night could bring increased precipitation chances as it
slides westward across interior Alaska through Wednesday. Any
precipitation that falls looks to be light for now.

-Chen

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

The deep low pressure system that has been the western Alaska
weather instigator for the last couple of days continues to make
its way across the Bering Sea. Its initial front made landfall
last night and brought widespread snow and blowing snow to the
western coast. It has since died off and conditions have improved
throughout the day, leaving more showery conditions in its wake. A
compact triple point low centered over the Barren Islands will
aid in light snow accumulations tonight in areas around Iliamna
and against the Aleutian Mountains. The broad parent low in the
Bering will send a weak secondary front to the mainland coast
tomorrow morning, enhancing snow showers there through Monday
afternoon.

This system continues eastward in the Bering through Tuesday
morning before making it to the southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN)
and dissipating by then. Expect continued off and on snow showers
through Monday evening for the Western and Central Aleutians
before a ridge builds in. Strong gusty westerly winds are expected
across the Central Aleutians today through Monday. Falling snow
in conjunction with the strong westerly winds could significantly
reduce visibility at times. A Special Weather Statement has been
issued for the Central Aleutians to highlight this threat. Expect
much of the same for the Eastern Aleutians and southern AKPEN
lasting into Tuesday as the low itself tracks nearby.

A low from the North Pacific will then send its front across the
Western Aleutians starting Tuesday morning, bringing strong
southeasterly gusts and moderate precipitation. Cold air in place
should be sufficient to start precipitation off as snow before
warm southerly flow transitions it to rain Tuesday evening. This
system looks to traverse the south side of the Aleutian Chain
through Wednesday, continuing an unsettled weather pattern for
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Thursday through
Sunday)...

A broad upper level area of low pressure, combined with a surface
low and associated fronts, occupies much of the western Bering
Sea and extends well into the North Pacific. This system will
steadily migrate to the southeast as a fairly strong ridge of high
pressure moves in from the North Pacific to replace it. This will
allow for several fast moving shortwave troughs and surface
fronts to migrate across the region bringing gale force winds and
mixed precipitation across the Central and Eastern Bering through
Friday. Rain continues to spread into the Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak
Island and across the Southcentral coasts through Saturday.

A upper level low, over Central Alaska, will move slowly to the
northwest then merge with a strong upper level longwave trough
over the northern Bering Sea late in the period. This system could
produce some moderate snow fall across parts of the Copper River
Basin and northern South Central Alaska as it move across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Due to down
inlet winds developing, easterlies over the mountains are now
expected to be above the 3000ft threshold, so LLWS is no longer
expected. Some showers may make it over the mountains, creating
virga or a few flurries, and cigs may fall briefly to 5000ft, but
this should be short-lived should it occur.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
221 AM AKDT Mon Mar 10 2025

AKZ181-185-110100-
Alaska Peninsula-Eastern Aleutians-
Including the cities of Cold Bay, Sand Point, Unalaska,
and Nikolski
221 AM AKDT Mon Mar 10 2025

...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY...

Periods of snow showers and strong westerly winds gusting up to
60 mph are likely for the Eastern Aleutians through Tuesday with
gusts up to 50 mph for the Southern Alaska Peninsula. Strong winds
in conjunction with falling snow could significantly reduce
visibility. The best chance for visibility to drop to one-half
mile will be this afternoon for the Eastern Aleutians and this
evening for the Southern Alaska Peninsula. Rain could also mix in
at times. Conditions will gradually improve from west to east on
Tuesday as a ridge builds in.