Gale Warning 225, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
508 AM AKST Sat Mar 8 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A rather benign weather day should be in store for Southcentral
today as most areas will see partly clouds skies and periods of
sunshine. The north Gulf coast and Prince William Sound will see
a few rain and snow showers throughout the day and more cloud
cover than the rest of Southcentral.

Saturday night, a triple point low will develop southwest of
Kodiak along a front crossing the Alaska Peninsula. This low will
move over Kodiak Sunday and to the Barren Island Sunday night and
then weaken as it then tracks southeast into the Gulf. This will
not be a very strong low, but it is in an effective position to
bring persistent precipitation for the eastern Kenai Peninsula and
parts of Prince William Sound. Models are all in surprisingly
good agreement with the track and timing of this low. That leaves
the two main uncertainties as to where the rain-snow line will be
and how far west the precipitation makes it. Thinking right now is
that Kachemak Bay will be right on the western edge of the
precipitation. At this point, Homer looks to only be in store for
around an inch of snow Sunday night into Monday morning and
Seldovia around 3 inches. However, just a small amount farther
west with the track of this low and both of those areas could get
a bit more snowfall. Expecting the precipitation type to start as
rain on Sunday and then turn to snow as the night wears on and a
little colder air moves in. Therefore this is an area we will
continue to monitor for chances in expected precipitation amounts.

Seward is in a similar situation as Kachemak Bay with precipitation
type uncertainty, though the propensity for snow will increase as
one heads northward with mainly snow expected for Portage and
Whittier. Portage, Whittier and into Turnagain Pass are the areas
which may see the biggest amounts of snowfall and also gusty
easterly winds. The winds and snow will begin early Sunday morning
and persist into Monday. While it does look to be cold enough
aloft for mostly snow throughout the day Sunday for far eastern
Turnagain Arm and Whittier, temperatures will warm above freezing
which will make it a wet, heavy snow and could turn to rain at
times. Expect limited visibilities at times along the Seward
Highway in eastern Turnagain Arm and through Turnagain Pass Sunday
into Monday morning. With temperatures near and above freezing,
the limited visibility should be more from snow intensity than
blowing snow, though the wind will not help matters.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday morning)...

The front from our well-advertised low west of the Western
Aleutians continues to push eastward this morning. The front is
about to make it to the Pribilof Islands as of 5AM AKST. The
Blizzard Warning remains out for that area through 1PM AKST this
afternoon. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 5 inches along with
winds gusts of 45 to 55 mph could cause visibilities to drop to
one-quarter mile or less at times this morning. Conditions look
to improve this afternoon as the front continues eastward.

The front then reaches the coast of mainland Southwest Alaska this
evening as it occludes. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued
for the threat of snow and blowing snow for both the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast, including Nunivak Island, as well as for Bristol Bay
from Dillingham and west from 7PM AKST this evening to 7AM AKDT
Sunday morning. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches as well
as winds gusting of 30 to 40 mph could cause visibilities to drop
to one- half mile at times; especially this evening and
overnight. Nunivak Island has the best chance for visibility to
briefly drop to one-quarter mile overnight. Conditions look to
improve through Sunday morning as winds begin to diminish and
steady snow tapers to snow showers. Steady snow could linger
around Dillingham through the morning hours before it fully moves
out and further inland late Sunday morning/early Sunday afternoon.
A triple-point low spins up near Kodiak Island Sunday morning and
this could help to enhance snow for interior Bristol Bay Sunday
into Monday; especially along the mountain ranges where upslope
westerly flow will be present.

The parent low that brought this front to the Pribilofs and
mainland Southwest moves into the central Bering by Monday as it
continues to weaken. Its trailing secondary front, much weaker
than the initial front, will make it to the coast of Southwest
Monday morning and bring another round of light snow to the coast.
Snow showers look to continue across the rest of the Bering Sea,
Pribilofs, and Aleutian Chain through Monday night as cyclonic
flow around the Bering low and cold air remain across the area.
Another North Pacific front lifts towards the Aleutian Chain for
Tuesday bringing morning gusty winds and precipitation to the
area.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Tuesday through Friday)...

On the Alaska Weather map, an unusually elongated upper level
trough extends from the Russian Far East across the Bering into
the Gulf of Alaska. It then curves into the Northern Canadian
Provinces through the forecast period. An equally long upper level
ridge stretches across the Arctic. A smaller scale upper ridge
slides across the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska through Thursday.
Several shortwaves ride through the pattern through the week.
Generally good continuity rests on a deterministic blend through
the forecast, with uncertainty locked in with smaller features
moving across the region.

A Western Bering surface low and a second low in Bristol Bay
brings areas of mostly snow and areas of gale force winds across
the Central and Eastern Bering, diminishing Wednesday. Another low
in the Gulf of Alaska spread mixed precipitation, mostly over
water, and diminishing Wednesday. A strong North Pacific low and
front makes its way over the Western and Central Aleutians late
Tuesday, and continuing over the Bering and Eastern Aleutians
Wednesday. Locally heavy rain and windy conditions spread along
the Aleutians, diminishing late Wednesday. Rain continues to
spread into the Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak Island and across the
Southcentral coasts through Friday.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions, increased cloud cover and light winds will
persist through tomorrow morning.

&&