Gale Warning 224, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
438 PM AKST Fri Mar 7 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Friday afternoon through Monday afternoon)...

Most of Southcentral Alaska will see fair conditions through late
Saturday night as a weakening low and its occluded front slowly
exit the region. The exception will be along the north Gulf coast,
where gusty outflow winds are occurring through the usual gaps
and passes. As such, a Blizzard Warning remains in effect for
Thompson Pass through early this evening as gusts to 45-55 mph
loft recently fallen snow. Beginning late Saturday night, stormier
conditions are expected as a front enters from the Bering Sea and
a triple point low develops along the front. Forecast confidence
is low to medium due to uncertainty with the triple point low's
track. However, we are monitoring the potential for heavy snow and
blowing snow on Sunday and Monday, with more details to come as
forecast confidence increases.

Diving into the details... some minor changes are in store for
tonight's forecast as models finally have a handle on the occluded
low currently in the Gulf. An upper level shortwave trough
rotating around this low will bring light precipitation to areas
around Prince William Sound, but forecast amounts have diminished
as the shortwave trends weaker. Winds and precipitation chances
will diminish through tomorrow as the low exits the region, though
showers will linger along the coast.

The bigger story will be from late Saturday through Sunday as a
robust front enters Southcentral Alaska. Expect gusty winds and a
decent plume of moisture with this front. Kodiak Island and the
north Gulf coast will be the primary locations impacted by this
storm; strong winds aloft will lead to downsloping across most of
Western Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage, while a more southerly low
track will generally keep Mat-Su and the Copper River Basin out of
the fray. Not much warm air will be brought in by this front, so
precipitation should stay mostly snow or snow/rain mix. This means
that some areas along the coast could pick up a hefty amount of
precipitation, with the potential for heavy snow and potentially
even blowing snow. While the storm is certainly strong enough to
bring these impacts, the details are more uncertain. A triple
point low forming along the front will greatly influence where the
strongest winds and precipitation are located and, thus, where
hazardous conditions may occur. Stay tuned as we continue to hone
in on this storm.

-Chen

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

Northerly flow on the backside of a low pressure system in the
Gulf of Alaska will bringing gusty winds through Alaska Peninsula
bays and passes into the evening hours tonight. Our focus is now
shifting to a large Kamchatka low making its way into the Western
Bering Sea. A strong front is associated with this system,
currently bringing widespread mixed precipitation and 40-50 mph
wind gusts to the Western and Central Aleutians. A Winter Weather
Advisory for blowing snow and reduced visibilities is currently in
effect for the Central Aleutians until 9 PM tonight.

This front will progress eastward tonight, crossing over the
Pribilof Islands early tomorrow morning. As a result, there is a
Blizzard Warning out for the Pribilofs from 4 AM tomorrow morning
through 1 PM tomorrow afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 2 to
4 inches with southeast winds gusting 45-55 mph will could cause
significantly reduced visibility down to one-quarter mile or less
at times. Precipitation may mix with rain in the afternoon before
cold air moves back in from the west after the front passes.

Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the Western Capes and
the Kuskokwim Delta coast & Nunivak Island from 6 PM Saturday to 4
AM Sunday as the front pushes ashore. Blizzard conditions are
expected with 2 to 4 inches of total snow accumulation and
southeasterly winds gusting 35-45 mph. The front will weaken as it
pushes inland through Sunday. Widespread light precipitation will
spread across the Bering Sea as the system moves west through
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Tuesday through Friday)...

On the Alaska Weather map, an unusually elongated upper level
trough extends from the Russian Far East across the Bering into
the Gulf of Alaska. It then curves into the Northern Canadian
Provinces through the forecast period. An equally long upper level
ridge stretches across the Arctic. A smaller scale upper ridge
slides across the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska through Thursday.
Several shortwaves ride through the pattern through the week.
Generally good continuity rests on a deterministic blend through
the forecast, with uncertainty locked in with smaller features
moving across the region.

A Western Bering surface low and a second low in Bristol Bay
brings areas of mostly snow and areas of gale force winds across
the Central and Eastern Bering, diminishing Wednesday. Another low
in the Gulf of Alaska spread mixed precipitation, mostly over
water, and diminishing Wednesday. A strong North Pacific low and
front makes its way over the Western and Central Aleutians late
Tuesday, and continuing over the Bering and Eastern Aleutians
Wednesday. Locally heavy rain and windy conditions spread along
the Aleutians, diminishing late Wednesday. Rain continues to
spread into the Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak Island and across the
Southcentral coasts through Friday.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Winds will
shift to southeasterly this afternoon and will continue into
tonight, switching back to northerly after 12Z. Cloud cover will
move in with the approaching shortwave from the Gulf of Alaska.

-KM

&&