Gale Warning 21, NWS Anchorage, AK

164 
FZAK61 PAFC 071237
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 AM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-080215-
337 AM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

Low pressure lingers across the Gulf. A front associated with 
another strong North Pacific low will move to the southern 
Gulf of Alaska Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-080215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
337 AM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 10 to 20 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 20 to 30 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 29 ft.

$$

PKZ352-080215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
337 AM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 29 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 28 ft.

$$

489 
FZAK61 PAFC 080018
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
318 PM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-081545-
318 PM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1002 mb low forms Tuesday afternoon near 55N 149W and moves to 
59N 145W at 1010 mb by Wednesday morning. This low opens to a 
trough by Wednesday afternoon. A 961 mb N Pacific low is located 
near 49N 151W by Thursday evening and quickly moves to 57N 143W at
973 mb by Friday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ351-081545-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
318 PM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft building to 18
to 22 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 29 ft.

$$

PKZ352-081545-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
318 PM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 31 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
635 AM AKST Mon Jan 6 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The forecast remains pretty much on track this morning with high
wind or winter weather headlines out for much of Southcentral
through Tuesday. The first of several systems this week have
moved through as of this morning. The latest of these quickly
lifted north across the western Gulf towards Kodiak overnight and
has now moved up into the northern Susitna Valley. This system
resulted in some gusty winds for the Cook Inlet, Kenai, and Homer.
Steady precipitation has been falling for most of the coastal
areas along the Gulf. Most of this has been falling as rain for
lower elevations, but for areas where the cold air has been more
difficult to scour out such as Valdez, precipitation has remained
all snow. However, temperatures has inched up to 32 degrees in
Valdez and expect a change-over to a wintry mix then possibly to
all rain at some point today.

We now turn our attention to a very strong system that is currently
lifting northwards out of the North Pacific. Strong lift associated
with this system is already resulting in the next round of moderate
to heavy precipitation to blossom over the northern Gulf. But that
isn't the only thing this system will bring. As this system
approaches, it will bottom out around 960 mb just southeast of
Kodiak Island. The surface low is then progged to move up the Cook
Inlet and elongate, but still remaining quite strong at 967 mb.
Winds will start to to increase over much of Gulf with both the NAM
and GFS developing a swath of hurricane force winds from the SW
entrance of Prince William Sound to the Copper River Delta and
extending further back to the southeast. These winds will funnel
towards the western Sound by this evening. Cordova will see winds
starting to increase this morning with strongest winds of 40 to 55
mph with gusts up to 75 mph are expected during the afternoon and
evening hours before decreasing overnight. As such, a High Wind
Warning has been issued for Southeast Prince William Sound. Strong
winds will then work into Whittier later this afternoon and evening
with gusts up to 65 mph possible.

Strong winds will also work over the Kenai and Chugach Mountains
with very strong winds for higher elevations. Winds will funnel down
into Portage and the Turnagain Arm by this evening with gusts up to
75 mph along the Arm and higher gusts possible for Portage. A High
Wind Warning is also in effect for these areas. Lastly, winds are
expected to increase through the Mat Valley this afternoon as the
pressure gradient tightens. As the low lifts north out of the Inlet,
Mat winds will look to slacken as the Knik winds take over. As such,
a High Wind Warning is also in effect for the Mat Valley.

Lastly, this system will bring a mix of precipitation with it.
Precipitation will increase in coverage by this afternoon with
precipitation working up the inlet. The southern end of the Kenai
Peninsula will see rain working in this morning with temperatures
having warmed into the 40s. Further north temperatures are still in
the 30s and upper 20s resulting in  wintry mix. Precipitation will
continue to work up towards the Anchorage Bowl and Susitna Valley
this afternoon. Precipitation and strong winds will wind down
Tuesday as the system exits the region; however, another system
looks to follow a similar track by midweek though there are still a
lot of details to work out on that system.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Monday through Thursday morning)...

A cold airmass remains over the central and western Bering while
unsettled weather brings precipitation to Southwest Monday and
Tuesday.

This morning, a small occluded low will remain over Unalaska
through the afternoon with continued light rain for the eastern
Aleutians and AKPen. A second low over Cook Inlet weakens as it
encounters the Alaska Range, but retains enough energy to bring
periodic snow across Southwest Alaska through the morning.
Meanwhile a larger North Pacific low races up the western Gulf
through the day before pushing its front over Southwest Monday
afternoon. This system is expected to bring additional widespread
snow showers for most of interior Bristol Bay and the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley, with a focus on an area including Dillingham,
New Stuyahok, and Koliganek, which may see anywhere from 3 to 8
inches of snow and reduced visibility through Tuesday morning.

Warmer surface temperatures will generally reduce snow
accumulation south of King Salmon along the AKPen, however, Togiak
may see up to two inches of snow through late Monday night.

Finally, the cold airmass over the western and northern Bering
will continue to bring gusty northeasterly winds from Saint
Lawrence Island down the western half of the Bering. Gusts of 35
to 50 knots will be possible within this region with seas of 15
to 20 feet. Further east, the threat of freezing spray continues
for the Bering Sea north and west of the Pribilof Islands. Heavy
freezing spray will continue along the ice edge between Nunivak
Island and north to Saint Lawrence Island.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

A very active weather pattern will continue for much of southern
Alaska through the end of the week and into next weekend. The
longwave pattern features a strong upper level low dominating much
of the Bering Sea-western mainland Alaska and a steep ridge of high
pressure along the Canadian Coast and Eastern Alaska. The high
pressure ridge will weaken and retreat eastward slightly along the
Gulf of Alaska and Southern Alaska allowing a very strong North
Pacific low and its associated fronts to travel northward into the
Gulf and into the Alaskan Peninsula Thursday and into Friday before
being absorbed by the long wave trough of low pressure over the
Baring Sea. This pattern will bring unseasonable warmer temperatures
and mixed precipitation along the coastlines near the surface and
has the real potential for heavy snow accumulations in the higher
elevations.

The upper level low will gradually retreat back into Eastern Siberia
and the Chukchi Sea as the Ridge of high pressure reasserts its
dominance Friday and into Saturday. This will flatten out the
southern portion of the long wave trough allowing several compact
surface lows and their associated fronts to transit along the
Aleutians and coastal southern Alaska.

Confidence in the model guidance is moderate with a slight bias
between the GFS and European solutions through Thursday. The
European and Canadian better handle the synoptic features Friday and
into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to persist through most
of the TAF period. Strong downslope southeasterly flow through
today will begin to turn more southerly tonight. This will allow
precipitation to fill in over the area with better chances of MVFR
conditions tonight into Tuesday morning. VFR conditions should
return by mid-morning Tuesday as precipitation becomes more
scattered in nature.

Meanwhile, there is a brief period for Turnagain Arm winds to
bend into the terminal this morning before down-inlet flow
strengthens again late morning and northerly winds resume late
morning to early afternoon through tonight. Winds aloft will stay
strong and out of the southeast which will promote low-level
windshear with winds at the surface remaining out of the north. As
flow throughout the atmosphere begins to turn more southerly
starting this afternoon, low-level windshear will diminish. Strong
gusty southeasterly winds return late tonight into early Tuesday
morning as low pressure moves up Cook Inlet and reorients the
pressure gradient to more of an east-west gradient.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
143 PM AKST Mon Jan 6 2025

AKZ103-126-070900-
East Turnagain Arm-Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Girdwood, Portage, Whittier, Seward,
and Moose Pass
143 PM AKST Mon Jan 6 2025

...STRONG WINDS FOR WHITTIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AREAS
OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS WEEK...

A strong storm in a series of systems that will affect the area
this week will lift north through the Gulf through today. The
front will enter Prince William Sound beginning this afternoon.
Easterly winds will continue pick up through Passage Canal and
into Whittier today. Peak winds are expected this afternoon into
the evening hours today where winds could briefly gust to 75 mph.
Easterly winds begin to diminish through the overnight hours into
Tuesday morning as flow turns more southerly by then.

In addition to strong winds, the series of storms will bring
considerably warmer weather and a chance of precipitation from
today through Tuesday. While temperatures are expected to
gradually rise above freezing through Monday, surface temperatures
may remain below freezing due to the recent cold weather. Rain,
heavy at times, may flow across and/or puddle on various surfaces.
Untreated and snow-covered surfaces and roadways may become
extremely slick. Please exercise caution if traveling over the
next few days.