Gale Warning 202, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
527 AM AKST Sat Mar 1 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3)...

A weak low is departing into the eastern Gulf while troughing over
Bristol Bay lifts north. The combination of these two features
today will lead to a reduction in shower activity along the coast,
though easterly flow may yield some weak upslope precipitation
over the eastern Kenai Peninsula. Elsewhere, expect similar
conditions to yesterday, though cloud cover will increase for all
areas other than the Copper Valley. Once again temperatures will
be well above normal.

On Sunday a north Pacific low will elongate from north to south as
it moves into western Alaska. It's trailing surface front will
move into the Gulf, but will weaken quickly as it moves into the
Sound. Southeasterly winds will focus most of the light
precipitation to the eastern Kenai Peninsula/Western Sound, though
some light rain and upper elevation snow is also expected for
Valdez and Cordova. For inland areas, downsloping should keep
things mostly dry, however there is a chance for light spill over
into the lee-side from the western kenai north into Anchorage.
Additionally, a turnagain arm wind may bend into Anchorage briefly
in the afternoon as the surface low crosses 60N latitude. The
winds should be fairly short lived however as another low moves
south of Kodiak Island Monday morning. This will bend the winds
back down the Inlet, as another front streams north into the Gulf.
Once again the precipitation will be confined mostly the coast
and Kodiak Island. Warm temperatures will persist and generally
speaking there will be little change in the weather for most areas
through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Saturday through through Monday)...

Synoptically, a departing low will continue to bring light
snow/rain to SWAK this morning. Another low will another round of
rain/snow to SWAK this evening into tomorrow afternoon.
Occasional snow showers can be expected for the Aleutians through
Monday.

As of 4am today, precipitation over the the Bristol Bay, SWAK
coastline and portions of the Kuskokwim Delta remain a mix of
rain/snow showers. This precipitation will end later this morning
for SWAK and Bristol Bay. However, snow will continue for the
Kuskokwim Delta through the afternoon hours with an additional 1
to 3 inches of snow expected. Widespread fog will continue
through late this morning across most of SWAK and the AKPen.

A low moving quickly from the North Pacific crosses the
Aleutians/AK Pen this afternoon bringing increased winds, snow
and rain. Warm air quickly arrives to the area changing the
precipitation to a snow/rain mix and eventually to all rain by
tomorrow morning. As warm air continues to push into the area,
rain will be the main precipitation type through Sunday before
ending. As the low moves into Bristol Bay, snow will begin to
overspread areas from Dillingham to Koliganek northward to the
Lower Kuskokwim Delta late this evening. This precipitation will
bring a brief period of southerly/southwesterly winds ranging from
30 to 40 knots. Though warm air continues to push northward, a
few inches of wet snow can be expected by sunrise Sunday. Rain
mixes with snow then changes to all rain by the late morning
hours. In the Kuskokwim Delta, the change to rain will occur
Sunday afternoon as northerly to northwesterly winds will
continue to keep cooler air in place. Snowfall accumulations from
Quinhagak through Bethel to Aniak range from 3 to 6 inches. A
quick moving low brings another round of rain/snow showers to the
AKPen and southwest Alaska Monday into Tuesday.

After periods of weekend rain/snow showers, a front moves through
the Western Aleutians bringing rain/snow showers to begin the
work week. A more potent low moves into the region Monday bringing
storm-force winds and heavy precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Tuesday through Friday)...

The high amplitude upper level ridge extending over Southeast
Alaska and Western Canada across Interior Alaska continues to
weaken and slip further into the Canadian Provinces towards the
weekend. An upper level North Pacific low pushes into the Gulf of
Alaska and dissipates into a trough for Wednesday. Another low
works its way from the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf through
Friday. A well developed upper low marches over the Aleutians to
the Alaska Peninsula through Friday. Moderately good continuity
using an ECMWF / GFS / Canadian cluster with the larger scale
features yields to an ensemble blend by the end of the forecast
period. Highest uncertainty rests in the smaller details working
through the pattern with shortwaves supporting surface weather.

Cold air pools over the Bering with the broad trough moves into
Western Alaska for Thursday, and continues through Friday into the
Interior. Warm air ahead of the trough is becoming reduced over
Southcentral coasts into the Eastern Interior. The forecast opens
Tuesday with a decaying front spreading locally moderate rainfall
along the coasts from Kodiak Island to Prince William Sound and
continuing to the Canadian Border through Wednesday. Areas of snow
over Western Alaska slip over the Bering through Friday. A second
low and front spreads mostly rain from the Western and Central
Aleutians Tuesday into the Eastern Aleutians and AKPEN through
Friday. A moderately strong North Pacific surface low and front
reinforces locally heavy rain from the AKPEN and Kodiak Island to
Southcentral Alaska to the Copper River Delta Tuesday Thursday and
Friday.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. There will be
some potential for LLWS to develop at the terminal towards the end
of the TAF period early on Sunday morning as southeast winds aloft
intensify ahead of low pressure system moving into Southwest
Alaska.

-AS

&&