Gale Warning 161, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Ridging persists across much of Southcentral over the next couple
of days and keeping most areas dry. There has been and will
continue to be a very gradual easterly shift of the ridge as a
frontal boundary skids northwards across the southern Gulf of
Alaska. However, the ridge will remain strong enough to keep the
front nearly stationary over Kodiak Island/southern Kenai
Peninsula.

For Kodiak Island, rain and low clouds will continue through at
least Tuesday night bringing rainfall totals of 1.00" to 2.00".
Winds will be east/southeasterly with gusts to 45 mph possible
across Kodiak Island (especially over Afognak Island) and up to 60
mph near the Barren Islands. Temperatures will hover near 40F
today and tomorrow, keeping precipitation as all rain at the
surface. Snow levels ranging 2000' to 2500' will allow for snow
along the higher elevations. Similar conditions are expected along
portions of the southern Kenai Peninsula with rain and high
elevation snow fall. The strongest will will remain just to the
south through the Barren Islands, though gusts to 30 mph are
possible near Seldovia.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

Overall, the forecast remains on track; only minor updates have
been made to the previous forecast. Generally expect strong winds
to persist through Tuesday as a ~940 mb low and its front extend
across the Bering Sea and into coastal Southwest Alaska. Most
areas will see periods of light rain; the exception to this will
be the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula, where persistent
onshore flow will lead to upwards of an inch of rain. By
Wednesday, winds diminish and temperatures begin to drop as the
storm system exits the region.

Diving into the details... it's been a windy evening and night
for the Bering Sea, Aleutian Islands, and Southwest Alaska. For
the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, the low and its front have
brought 70+ mph gusts to Adak and Nikolski, and 60+ mph gusts to
Dutch Harbor, Cold Bay, and King Cove. For Southwest Alaska, a
robust shortwave moving north along the coast has been the primary
weather maker: a gust of 71 mph was reported at Platinum near
Goodnews Bay, while gusts of 60+ mph were reported at King Salmon
and Koliganek.

Confidence is high that strong winds will continue through about
Tuesday morning, though there have been some minor updates since
yesterday afternoon's forecast package. Most notably, the coverage
and duration of storm force winds over marine areas have been
lowered as models trend towards sub-storm force winds. Over land,
wind speeds have been bumped up as observations have over-
performed in favored gap locations like Cold Bay and King Salmon.

Looking ahead to early Tuesday morning, one aspect of the forecast
that we're less confident in is the evolution of an upper level
shortwave and its attendant surface low. Some models are hinting
at a stronger surface low and, therefore, increased chances of
storm force winds early Tuesday morning from Bristol Bay north to
the Kuskokwim Delta coast. However, should the surface low lean
weaker, winds will likely remain at gale force. As a middle
ground, have trended winds towards high-end gales in the forecast.
The uncertainty associated with this surface low will also affect
rain chances along the Southwest coastline, although any
precipitation that falls should remain light.

By Wednesday, conditions improve as the strong storm system
weakens and exits the region. Still, weaker shortwave troughs
moving through the area will keep the weather unsettled.

-Chen

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Predictability in the extended forecast looks about as high
confidence as you can get in the field of medium-range
meteorology. The feature most responsible is a large sprawling
dome of high pressure that extends well into the upper atmosphere
over the Arctic, stretching southward over the Great Land. The
closed high pressure, a blocking high, is keeping the prevailing
storm track south of the Aleutians which looks to continue through
at least the weekend. As far as impactful weather, there looks to
be a front impacting the western Aleutians on Friday, and another
low pressure system south of the Gulf of Alaska that swings a
front northward toward the Gulf Coast over the weekend.

One feature to keep an eye on will be a disturbance associated
with an upper- level trough over northern Canada. That upper-level
shortwave looks to have implications on our sensible weather,
perhaps the next chance at precipitation for many locations across
the southern Mainland. As it currently looks in the models, that
wave will bring a return of Arctic air across Southcentral and
Southwest Alaska, Friday into the weekend. More uncertain with
this scenario will be how that disturbance interacts with the
prevailing storm track, namely whatever energy is left over in the
Gulf of Alaska. Currently, the GFS/ECMWF are showing moisture and
energy being pulled from the Gulf being pulled over the Mainland,
as snow. However, lots can change in a week but that looks like
the next real chance for active weather. Until then enjoy clear
and colder for Southcentral Alaska, with dry and mild(for winter)
for Southwest Alaska.

MTL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions expected to continue through much of the
period, though, there is a chance for fog and/or low clouds to develop
over Cook Inlet by early Monday morning as high pressure starts to
push eastwards. Otherwise, calm winds and high clouds beginning to
work in from the south and east through Monday night.

&&