Brisk Wind Advisory 63, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 PM AKST Tue Dec 30 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Friday)...

Ridging in the Bering Sea and troughing over Southcentral and the
Gulf of Alaska continue to define the upper-level pattern this
afternoon. The trough is anchored by a vertically-stacked low
pressure system in the east-central Gulf, while a closed upper-
level low sits over interior Alaska. Conditions are largely cold
and dry across Southcentral as the Gulf low slowly tracks toward
Southeast Alaska. This will be punctuated by some light snow as a
band of precipitation extending from the Susitna Valley across the
Alaska Range into the Interior drops south tonight, aided by the
closed upper-low to the north swinging a shortwave trough across
Southcentral. Light snow is most likely near the Alaska Range,
with accumulations up to an inch or so possible along the Denali
Highway and near Paxson. Some flurries and lighter accumulations
are possible further south in the Matanuska Valley and even
Anchorage (the best chance would be on the Hillside and higher
elevations of Eagle River) later this evening as the snow works
its way south. By around midnight tonight, this band of
precipitation will begin to interact with the moist easterly flow
wrapping around the Gulf low and bring slightly heavier
precipitation to Prince William Sound and portions of the Copper
River Basin.

Meanwhile, a separate potent shortwave trough tracking over the
top of the Bering ridge digs southeastward across Southwest Alaska
and digs into the western Gulf tonight into Wednesday. Cold
advection associated with the trough spreads across Southcentral,
with winds already increasing through the coastal mountain gaps
this evening. Wind gusts in Whittier already approaching 65 mph
are reducing visibility to one half mile by lofting low density
snow that fell earlier this morning. Low visibilities look to
continue through the night, at minimum, until the transportable
snow is mostly scoured out. While the strongest area of cold
advection will be across the Alaska Peninsula, the western Gulf
coastal waters, and Kodiak Island, cold air deepens across the
rest of Southcentral as well, so gap winds look to ramp up again
through Wednesday (New Year's Eve). Fortunately, one gap that will
be spared with this northwesterly flow event is the Matanuska
Valley, where winds will remain fairly light.

Gusty winds, already ongoing through Thompson Pass, are also
expected to reduce visibility to one half mile or less as snow
returns after midnight. Visibility is expected to improve as now
comes to an end across Prince William Sound and the Copper Basin
Wednesday evening. In all, snow accumulations up to around 3
inches are expected near the coast, with decreasing amounts
further inland/north. After that point, dry and cold conditions
will settle back in across the region as the upper trough
marches eastward. Gap winds will begin to gradually diminish
Thursday into Friday with the loss of the upper-level forcing from
the trough. Meanwhile, temperatures will gradually trend downward
into the weekend. We are monitoring the potential for wind chills
40 below zero or lower developing across the Copper Basin and
mountain passes of the Alaska Range as early as Wednesday night.
By Friday, ambient temperatures in the single digits above and
below zero are expected across the Cook Inlet region (Anchorage,
western Kenai, Mat-Su) and even much of the north Gulf coast
(including Seward, Whittier, Valdez, and Cordova). Meanwhile, the
Copper Basin will likely be in the range of 20 to 30 below zero.
Cold temperatures look to stick around through Monday next week.

Quesada

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

A stout upper ridge is making slow but steady progress eastwards
today, allowing dry conditions to spread across the
central/eastern Aleutians and Pribilofs. Farther west, a front
associated with an North Pacific low has pushed over the western
Aleutians from the south, spreading low-end Gale force winds, and
moderate rainfall into the western Chain. Across the AKPen, very
strong and gusty north winds persist this morning, fueled by
strong northerly flow between the Bering ridge and a deep low
meandering across the Gulf. These strong winds will continue
through tonight, remaining storm-force through the southern gaps
and passes, through tonight diminishing Wednesday morning. Winds
causing the resuspended ash from several of the volcanoes along
the AKPen have diminished, and the ash is no longer airborne.

The Bering front will continue to make steady northeast progress
into the western and central Bering through midweek, spreading
mainly rain across the Aleutian Chain as it moves across.
Precipitation could start out as snow in the Pribilofs as the
front moves in Wednesday afternoon, but a fairly quick transition
to rain is likely by Wednesday evening as warmer air along the
boundary pushes through.

Across Southwest, a weak low and trailing front currently moving
across the far northern Bering is on track to push a quick shot of
snow showers across the Kuskokwim Delta this evening into early
Wednesday. Moisture support for snow along this incoming front
still looks unimpressive, with up to an inch of new snowfall for
areas of the Kusko Delta anticipated as the front races past
tonight, before deteriorating. Across the rest of Southwest, cold
and dry conditions will persist through Thursday as north winds
gradually die down. For the AKPen region, very strong and gusty
northerly winds will continue today, weakening slightly by
Wednesday, then coming down more sharply by Thursday as the Bering
ridge erodes and as the Gulf low weakens.

By the end of the workweek, a shift toward more active weather
across the Bering Sea and Southwest coastline is expected with a
broad trough moving in. No significantly deep lows on the horizon
yet, however the passage of several shortwaves through the area
may be the beginning of a longer term shift out of the high
pressure benign pattern.

-AS/CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Very cold, dry weather will persist into the weekend across mainland
Alaska, while the Aleutians remain near- or just above-average in
terms of temperatures thanks to a strong amplified upper-level ridge
that remains in place across the central Bering Sea. Models are
beginning to converge to a solution which features a deep low
crossing over the Aleutians and into the Bering late Saturday into
Sunday, helping shift that large ridge eastward a bit. Strong
winds, large waves, and heavy precipitation are all a possibility
with this low as it shifts north, with the strongest winds
currently expected to be from approximately Atka west.

For Southcentral, the main hazard for the weekend will be the
continuation of strong gap winds through Sunday before the pressure
gradient relaxes. Temperatures will be quite cold, with highs near 0
for Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula, with lows closer to 10 below.
The Copper River Basin will remain frigid, with temperatures largely
hovering between 20 and 40 below.

Models diverge, and thus confidence lowers, as we head into the
beginning of next week. There's still reasonable consensus that a
strong front associated with this low will rotate east into mainland
Alaska, helping break down the ridge that would then be across the
Gulf of Alaska north. A strong triple point low may also develop
across the northern Gulf, which would bring heavy precip/snow to
much of the Southcentral Coast. Details are still murky with this
one, but this would ultimately be the next chance of significant
snow accumulation for much of the area. Stay tuned.

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Gusty winds will finally die down today, slowly diminishing
through the morning hours. A weak upper short-wave digging into
Southcentral from the Interior tonight, will keep some clouds
overhead, though mostly mid to high clouds. There is a just a
slight chance of ceilings dropping to 5000 feet or a bit lower
as the trough crosses overhead between 09Z and 15Z.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
924 PM AKST Tue Dec 30 2025

AKZ701>703-711>714-721>729-731-732-735-741>751-010100-
Anchorage-Anchorage Hillside / Eagle River-East Turnagain Arm-
Lower Matanuska Valley-Hatcher Pass-
Sutton / Upper Matanuska Valley-Eureka / Tahneta Pass-
Southern Kachemak Bay-SW Kenai Peninsula-NW Kenai Peninsula-
Skilak Lake-Southern Kenai Mtns-Interior Kenai Peninsula-
Turnagain Pass-West Prince William Sound & Whittier-Tyonek-Valdez-
Thompson Pass-Cordova-Northern Copper Valley-
Western Copper Valley-Central Copper Valley-Ernestine-
Western Susitna Valley-Southern Susitna Valley-
Central Susitna Valley-Northern Susitna Valley-
Southern Copper Valley-Tok Cutoff-McCarthy-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Eklutna,
Anchorage Hillside, Upper Eagle River, Indian, Girdwood, Palmer,
Wasilla, Big Lake, Hatcher Pass, Sutton, Chickaloon, Eureka,
Tahneta Pass, Lake Louise, Seldovia, Halibut Cove, Nanwalek,
Homer, Anchor Point, Ninilchik, Clam Gulch, Kenai, Soldotna,
Sterling, Nikiski, Cooper Landing, Skilak Lake, Seward,
Moose Pass, Summit Lake, Hope, Turnagain Pass, Whittier, Chenega,
Tyonek, Valdez, Thompson Pass, Cordova, Tatitlek, Paxson,
Nelchina, Tolsona, Mendeltna, Glennallen, Gakona, Copper Center,
Tonsina, 46 Mile, Skwentna, Willow, Talkeetna, Trapper Creek,
Petersville, Chulitna, Broad Pass, Denali Highway, Kenny Lake,
Chitina, Chistochina, Slana, Mentasta Lake, Nebesna, and McCarthy
924 PM AKST Tue Dec 30 2025

...RETURN OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK...

Clearing skies and a cooling airmass will bring well below normal
temperatures beginning Thursday, with readings continuing to fall
through the weekend. Temperatures are expected to vary
significantly over short distances due to wind and terrain
effects, with the coldest conditions occurring in low-lying,
wind-sheltered areas. Low temperatures in the Copper Valley could
reach -35F to -45F with wind chill values near or below -55F. The
Susitna Valley could reach -35F in low laying areas like Willow.
For the Matanuska Valley, Anchorage and Kenai Peninsula, low
temperatures between -5F and -25F are expected. High temperatures
may remain below 0F by the weekend. Winds will keep temperatures
warmer through the Prince William Sound communities, but wind
chill values between -10F and -25F are expected.