Wind Advisory 8, NWS Aberdeen, SD

748 
WWUS73 KABR 101651
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1151 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

SDZ003-004-009-015-110300-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0008.250310T1700Z-250311T0400Z/
Corson-Campbell-Walworth-Dewey-
Including the cities of Herreid, Isabel, McIntosh, and Mobridge
1151 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 /1051 AM MDT Mon Mar 10 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Campbell, Corson, Dewey, and Walworth Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few 
  power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

SDZ005-006-010-016-017-110300-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0008.250310T2000Z-250311T0700Z/
McPherson-Brown-Edmunds-Potter-Faulk-
Including the cities of Aberdeen, Faulkton, Eureka, Ipswich, and
Gettysburg
1151 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM 
CDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Edmunds, Faulk, McPherson, Potter, and Brown Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 2 AM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few 
  power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-021-110300-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0008.250310T2200Z-250311T0700Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-Marshall-Roberts-Day-Grant-
Including the cities of Webster, Sisseton, Wheaton, Milbank,
Ortonville, and Britton
1151 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM 
CDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Minnesota, Big Stone and Traverse Counties. In South 
  Dakota, Day, Grant, Marshall, and Roberts Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few 
  power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

TMT

204 
WWUS73 KABR 110121
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
821 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

MNZ039-046-SDZ005>008-010-011-016-017-021-110230-
/O.CAN.KABR.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-250311T0700Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-Edmunds-Day-
Potter-Faulk-Grant-
Including the cities of Milbank, Gettysburg, Ipswich, Wheaton,
Aberdeen, Webster, Faulkton, Sisseton, Britton, Eureka, and
Ortonville
821 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind gusts may briefly surge with gusts near 45 mph with the 
advancing cold air this evening, but only for about 20 minutes. 
Otherwise, winds remain under advisory criteria.

$$

SDZ003-004-009-015-110230-
/O.CAN.KABR.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-250311T0400Z/
Corson-Campbell-Walworth-Dewey-
Including the cities of Isabel, McIntosh, Herreid, and Mobridge
821 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 /721 PM MDT Mon Mar 10 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind gusts may briefly surge with gusts near 45 mph with the 
advancing cold air this evening, but only for about 20 minutes. 
Otherwise, winds remain under advisory criteria.

$$

Wise

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
706 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind and fire weather headlines in place on Monday to highlight
  potential for gusts 45-60mph and critical fire weather
  conditions due to low humidity (20% or less) windy conditions,
  along with dry fuels.

- Record highs possible on Monday with much above normal
  temperatures (upper 60s to low 70s) moving in.

- A potential storm system could be affecting the region for the
  end of the week. Uncertainty surrounding system track, timing,
  precipitation type and change-over and strength of wind
  components, just to name a few, are all making this a complex
  system for Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Allowed the Red Flag Warning for today to expire. Winds have
diminished this evening and relative humidity has begun to slowly
rise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Over the past hour or two, several observations across the region
are showing humidity around 20 percent or less with wind gusts
around 25 mph, give or take. Will therefore leave the Red Flag
Warning in place until its expiration time of 00Z this evening.
Temperatures are currently in the 60s across the region and have not
noticed anyone hit 70 yet, but it's certainly not out of the
question as we have a few more hours of heating left.

Focus then shifts to Monday afternoon/evening with warm and dry air
surging eastward into the CWA. 925mb temps tomorrow are a few
degrees warmer than today, with readings topping out around +17C to
+20C across the CWA. So, likely adding a handful of degrees onto
Monday's highs compared to what we saw today. This will bring most
areas into the upper 60s and low 70s. HREF cloud cover ensemble mean
does not suggest an overly abundant coverage of cirrus. Combine this
with good mixing, and the stage is set for near maximum heating
potential. Upped highs a few degrees and could easily see some/many
areas rising into the low 70s, perhaps even some areas around 75
degrees. After examining the new wind/RH numbers for Monday
afternoon, decided to add the rest of the CWA into the Red Flag
Warning. Also expanded the warning until 02Z as the wind shift with
the front moving south into the evening hours will be problematic
for any fires that start.

Strong winds still look like a good possibility across at least
northern SD by late afternoon Monday. 3hr pressure changes on the
order of 8 to 10mb showing up across northeast SD Monday evening.
Would like to see this coincide a bit better with daytime mixing,
but there is an opportunity for this perhaps over north central SD
by late afternoon into early evening, even further east across the
northern tier of counties. Things setting up more nicely over ND,
but still see some potential for high winds with gusts approaching
60 mph immediately in the wake of the frontal passage. Will stick
with the High Wind Watch for now and have mid shift take one final
look at how things are shaping up before any possible upgrades to a
warning. At the very least, a Wind Advisory is likely needed for
parts of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Northwest to zonal flow aloft expected for the middle of the work
week, with ridging Thursday in response to a trough deepening over
the western CONUS. Flow becomes diffluent aloft Friday as this wave
continues through the Rockies ahead of the upper low development
late Friday/early Saturday. This Colorado Low type setup continues
through Saturday as the upper low makes a curved track up to the
northeast through Minnesota.

At the surface, the long term starts with a departing 1016-1018mb
high pressure system. There is an about 10mb gradient across the
state for late Tuesday/early Wednesday so a brief stiff southerly
breeze before the pressure gradient relaxes during the day Wednesday.
Low level warm advection will get rid of the Canadian airmass from
earlier in the week. Continued, though light return flow means
slowly moderating temperatures through the end of the work week. At
00Z-06Z Friday, 850mb temperatures peak around +14C between the main
deterministic members, however ensembles/ensemble means are a bit
cooler with the EC ensemble only bringing the +12C line as far north
as Omaha, while the NAEFS has +12C up into south central South
Dakota. These represent a standard deviation to maybe about 2
deviations above climo. Deterministic members suggest later in the
day we see the wrap around cold airmass begin to actually impact the
CWA, with easter portions remaining in the milder air even into the
00Z-12Z Saturday timeframe.  PWATS are a little underwhelming as
well, only about a standard deviation over South Dakota despite the
fact we're still in mid-March, say as in comparison to when we're
mainly getting our Colorado lows between April and May. GFS
deterministic does go as high as 1" over towards Minneapolis, but
the values overhead are nothing earth-shattering at this point.

What is impressive at this point is how similarly the output between
deterministic members are at this point, with fairly similar surface
low placement through the surface low progression, though the
Canadian is a little slower. Surface pressure, and an estimated 25mb
gradient across the state translates into extremely windy
conditions on the backside of the system. Thus will leave the
blowing snow aspect of this system in the forecast.  850mb
temperature gradients are also fairly similar in timing, though the
Canadian is a little slower on the colder air migration, while the
EC is, as expected a little lower resolution so the gradient in
temperatures isn't as extreme as the other two models. Still though,
there is still a lot of uncertainty between even GEFS members, with
QPF ranges of only around 0.1 to in excess of 2 inches likely the
result in slight shifts of the backside deformation zone and TROWAL
plus slight displacements in the thermal gradient/snow line.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 703 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Monday. West to northwest
winds will increase on Monday with gusts as high as 45 kts.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
     MDT/ Monday for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

     High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
     SDZ003>011-015.

MN...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for MNZ039-046.

&&

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
356 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051-100900-
Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Walworth-Edmunds-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-
Spink-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
356 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025 /156 AM MST Sun Mar 9 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota, north
central South Dakota and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Red Flag Warning in effect today due to wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph,
relative humidity as low as 18 percent, and ongoing dry fuels.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Red Flag Warning in effect for Monday due to wind gusts of 50 to 60
mph, relative humidity as low as 18 percent, and ongoing dry fuels.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SDZ007-008-011-019>021-100900-
Marshall-Roberts-Day-Clark-Codington-Grant-
356 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Due to wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph and ongoing dry fuels, the
Grassland Fire Danger index is high to very high today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Red Flag Warning in effect for Monday due to wind gusts of 50 to 60
mph, relative humidity as low as 20 percent, and ongoing dry fuels.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MNZ039-046-100900-
Traverse-Big Stone-
356 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Strong west winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph along
with afternoon relative humidity dropping to 20 percent are
expected to create elevated Grassland Fire Danger conditions on
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SDZ022-023-100900-
Hamlin-Deuel-
356 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.