Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
330 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- SLIGHT RISK (2 of 5) again for today and tonight. Wind and hail
are the primary threats, though can't rule out a brief tornado in
far eastern SD/western MN.

- Two rounds of storms are expected in the slight risk. The first
will develop late this afternoon in eastern SD/west central MN. The
second will move in from the west late this evening and progress
east through Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

A front is draped southwest to northeast across the forecast area
this afternoon, stretching from south central SD to around Sisseton.
Areas along and east of this forcing mechanism will be in the
crosshairs for severe storms this evening. Hi-res CAMS are pointing
to a start time of 22z around the Sisseton hills. 35 kts of bulk
shear and 3000 to 4500 J/kg MUCAPE with no significant cap (+10-
+12C) provide a decent set up for discrete cells with hail and wind.
Low level helicity increases toward 1z across east central SD and
west central MN with an STP of 1 to 2 on the RAP13, so can't rule
out a tornado or two either as bulk shear increases to 45 kts.

Another round of thunderstorms moves in from the west and southwest
around 5z. This looks to be mostly post frontal with an agitated
shortwave trough. With 40 to 50 kts of bulk shear and 2000 to 3000
J/kg of CAPE in central SD at the time convection, the potential for
strong to severe hail and wind gusts exists through the night.

The other concern will be the potential for flooding across the east
and Jones/Lyman county where antecedent conditions have left wet
soils and creeks near bankfull.

The shortwave trough exits Sunday morning with weak sfc high
pressure building in behind it. However, another shortwave trough
moves through Sunday night with an upper trough/backdoor cold front
that could set off some showers through Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Added and adjusted prob30 groups for all taf sites with potential
for showers and thunderstorms ramping up again after 21z and
continuing into Sunday morning. KATY has the highest chance of
seeing severe storms between 22z and 02z. Future adjustments will
likely be needed. Vsby/cigs may fall to MVFR in heavier rain.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
642 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-291145-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
642 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 /542 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms east of a
line from Pierre to Aberdeen with storms expected to develop along a
stalled boundary in central and eastern South Dakota later this
afternoon. Storms come with the risk for large hail and damaging
winds. We cannot rule out a tornado or two in far eastern South
Dakota and western Minnesota.

Another round of storms will move into central South Dakota from the
west during the early morning hours Sunday. The risk for widespread
severe weather with this cluster of storms is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our X
feed.

TMT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
555 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     Funnel Cloud     4 NE Veblen             45.90N 97.22W
06/28/2025                   Roberts            SD   Emergency Mngr

            Message on Slack about a persistent funnel
            cloud (around for about 6 min since 5:29)
            near Veblen. Roberts county EM said that
            dispatch has had a few calls about a funnel
            west of the Dakota Magic Casino.

&&

NV