Alert archive / South Dakota / High Wind Warnings in 2025
High Wind Warning 2, NWS Aberdeen, SD
NWS Aberdeen, SD issued this high wind warning at Mar 14, 2025, 1:08 PM CDT for 8 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 13 hr. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 14, 2025, 1:08 PM CDT (18:08 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 15, 2025, 2:37 AM CDT
- In force
- 13 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Aberdeen, SD
Counties Buffalo County, SD, Hand County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Hyde County, SD, Jones County, SD, Lyman County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Sully County, SD
The radar
The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 172 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 7:07 PM CDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 58 | 1 Ne Stephan, SD | Mesonet station 183 Macs Corner (SDDOT). |
| Mar 14, 9:39 PM CDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 60 | 3 Se Reliance, SD | Mesonet station 54 Reliance (SDDOT). |
| Mar 14, 9:44 PM CDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 59 | 1 Ne Stephan, SD | Mesonet station 183 Macs Corner (SDDOT). |
| Mar 14, 10:19 PM CDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 63 | 3 Se Reliance, SD | Mesonet station 54 Reliance (SDDOT). |
| Mar 15, 12:29 AM CDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 68 | 2 N Pierre Regional Air, SD | Mesonet station AV812 Pierre. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 134 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2290 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 89 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 76 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
023 WWUS73 KABR 141808 NPWABR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 108 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 SDZ033-045-048-150415- /O.UPG.KABR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250315T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KABR.HW.W.0002.250314T1808Z-250315T1600Z/ Stanley-Jones-Lyman- Including the cities of Murdo, Fort Pierre, and Kennebec 108 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 /1208 PM MDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ SATURDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * WHERE...Jones, Lyman, and Stanley Counties. * WHEN...Until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Saturday. * IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around or damaged by the wind. && $$ SDZ034>037-051-150415- /O.UPG.KABR.WI.Y.0009.250315T0000Z-250315T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KABR.HW.W.0002.250314T2200Z-250315T1600Z/ Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Buffalo- Including the cities of Onida, Highmore, Pierre, Miller, and Fort Thompson 108 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM CDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Buffalo, Hand, Hughes, Hyde, and Sully Counties. * WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM CDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around or damaged by the wind. && $$ SDZ006-018-150415- /O.EXB.KABR.WI.Y.0009.250315T0000Z-250316T0000Z/ Brown-Spink- Including the cities of Redfield and Aberdeen 108 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Brown and Spink Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ SDZ003-015-150415- /O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250315T1800Z/ Corson-Dewey- Including the cities of McIntosh and Isabel 1208 PM MDT Fri Mar 14 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...Corson and Dewey Counties. * WHEN...Until noon MDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ SDZ004-005-009-010-016-017-150415- /O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0009.250315T0000Z-250315T1800Z/ Campbell-McPherson-Walworth-Edmunds-Potter-Faulk- Including the cities of Faulkton, Gettysburg, Herreid, Ipswich, Eureka, and Mobridge 108 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Campbell, Edmunds, Faulk, McPherson, Potter, and Walworth Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ Wise
3 follow-up statements
728 WWUS73 KABR 150338 NPWABR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1038 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 SDZ033-045-048-151400- /O.CON.KABR.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250315T1600Z/ Stanley-Jones-Lyman- Including the cities of Murdo, Kennebec, and Fort Pierre 1038 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 /938 PM MDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ SATURDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * WHERE...Jones, Lyman, and Stanley Counties. * WHEN...Until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Saturday. * IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around or damaged by the wind. && $$ SDZ034>037-051-151400- /O.CON.KABR.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250315T1600Z/ Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Buffalo- Including the cities of Highmore, Onida, Fort Thompson, Pierre, and Miller 1038 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * WHERE...Buffalo, Hand, Hughes, Hyde, and Sully Counties. * WHEN...Until 11 AM CDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around or damaged by the wind. && $$ SDZ003-015-151400- /O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250315T1800Z/ Corson-Dewey- Including the cities of Isabel and McIntosh 938 PM MDT Fri Mar 14 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Corson and Dewey Counties. * WHEN...Until noon MDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ SDZ004-005-009-010-016-017-151400- /O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250315T1800Z/ Campbell-McPherson-Walworth-Edmunds-Potter-Faulk- Including the cities of Mobridge, Herreid, Faulkton, Gettysburg, Eureka, and Ipswich 1038 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Campbell, Edmunds, Faulk, McPherson, Potter, and Walworth Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM CDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ SDZ006-018-151400- /O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250316T0000Z/ Brown-Spink- Including the cities of Aberdeen and Redfield 1038 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Brown and Spink Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ Parkin
930 WWUS73 KABR 150600 NPWABR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 100 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 SDZ033-045-048-151400- /O.CON.KABR.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250315T1600Z/ Stanley-Jones-Lyman- Including the cities of Murdo, Kennebec, and Fort Pierre 100 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 /1200 AM MDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Northwest winds 30 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...Jones, Lyman, and Stanley Counties. * WHEN...Until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning. * IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around or damaged by the wind. && $$ SDZ034>037-051-151400- /O.CON.KABR.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250315T1600Z/ Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Buffalo- Including the cities of Highmore, Miller, Pierre, Fort Thompson, and Onida 100 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Northwest winds 30 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...Buffalo, Hand, Hughes, Hyde, and Sully Counties. * WHEN...Until 11 AM CDT this morning. * IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around or damaged by the wind. && $$ MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-019>023-151400- /O.EXB.KABR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250315T2100Z/ Traverse-Big Stone-Marshall-Roberts-Day-Clark-Codington-Grant- Hamlin-Deuel- Including the cities of Clark, Ortonville, Watertown, Milbank, Webster, Clear Lake, Hayti, Britton, Sisseton, and Wheaton 100 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...In Minnesota, Big Stone and Traverse Counties. In South Dakota, Clark, Codington, Day, Deuel, Grant, Hamlin, Marshall, and Roberts Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 PM CDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ SDZ006-018-151400- /O.EXT.KABR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250315T2100Z/ Brown-Spink- Including the cities of Redfield and Aberdeen 100 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Northwest winds 30 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...Brown and Spink Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 PM CDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ SDZ003-015-151400- /O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250315T1800Z/ Corson-Dewey- Including the cities of McIntosh and Isabel 1200 AM MDT Sat Mar 15 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...Corson and Dewey Counties. * WHEN...Until noon MDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...21 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ SDZ004-005-009-010-016-017-151400- /O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250315T1800Z/ Campbell-McPherson-Walworth-Edmunds-Potter-Faulk- Including the cities of Herreid, Eureka, Gettysburg, Mobridge, Ipswich, and Faulkton 100 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...Campbell, Edmunds, Faulk, McPherson, Potter, and Walworth Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM CDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ BC
844 WWUS73 KABR 150737 NPWABR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 237 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 SDZ033-045-048-151400- /O.CAN.KABR.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250315T1600Z/ /O.EXA.KABR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250315T1800Z/ Stanley-Jones-Lyman- Including the cities of Murdo, Kennebec, and Fort Pierre 237 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 /137 AM MDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Jones, Lyman, and Stanley Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ SDZ034>037-051-151400- /O.CAN.KABR.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250315T1600Z/ /O.EXA.KABR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250315T1800Z/ Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Buffalo- Including the cities of Highmore, Miller, Pierre, Fort Thompson, and Onida 237 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Northwest winds 30 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Buffalo, Hand, Hughes, Hyde, and Sully Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM CDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-019>023-151400- /O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250315T2100Z/ Traverse-Big Stone-Marshall-Roberts-Day-Clark-Codington-Grant- Hamlin-Deuel- Including the cities of Clark, Ortonville, Watertown, Milbank, Webster, Clear Lake, Hayti, Britton, Sisseton, and Wheaton 237 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...In Minnesota, Big Stone and Traverse Counties. In South Dakota, Clark, Codington, Day, Deuel, Grant, Hamlin, Marshall, and Roberts Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 PM CDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ SDZ003-015-151400- /O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250315T1800Z/ Corson-Dewey- Including the cities of McIntosh and Isabel 137 AM MDT Sat Mar 15 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Corson and Dewey Counties. * WHEN...Until noon MDT today. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ SDZ004-005-009-010-016-017-151400- /O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250315T1800Z/ Campbell-McPherson-Walworth-Edmunds-Potter-Faulk- Including the cities of Herreid, Eureka, Gettysburg, Mobridge, Ipswich, and Faulkton 237 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Northwest winds 30 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...Campbell, Edmunds, Faulk, McPherson, Potter, and Walworth Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM CDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ SDZ006-018-151400- /O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250315T2100Z/ Brown-Spink- Including the cities of Redfield and Aberdeen 237 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Northwest winds 30 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...Brown and Spink Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 PM CDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ BC
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this high wind warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Aberdeen, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind warning went out at Mar 14, 12:27 PM CDT, 41 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- A storm system will move in this evening and impact the forecast area through Saturday. Rain will transition to a wintry mix and eventually all snow by early Saturday morning.
- Strong northerly winds (gusts of 40-55 knots) will move into the area this afternoon and persist through the day Saturday. A Wind Advisory is in effect for areas west of the James River Valley from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.
- Strong winds and heavy snow (accumulations upwards of 6" in some places) will combine to reduce visibilities Saturday morning along and east of the James River Valley. A Winter Storm Watch for Blizzard Conditions is in effect for that area from early Saturday morning to Saturday afternoon.
- Another storm system will move east across the Central Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. Impacts may be mainly across southern SD and points south, although some light accumulations generally under 3 inches are possible over the area.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 14, 12:27 PM CDT, 41 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A storm system will move in this evening and impact the
forecast area through Saturday. Rain will transition to a wintry
mix and eventually all snow by early Saturday morning.
- Strong northerly winds (gusts of 40-55 knots) will move into
the area this afternoon and persist through the day Saturday. A
Wind Advisory is in effect for areas west of the James River
Valley from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.
- Strong winds and heavy snow (accumulations upwards of 6" in
some places) will combine to reduce visibilities Saturday
morning along and east of the James River Valley. A Winter Storm
Watch for Blizzard Conditions is in effect for that area from
early Saturday morning to Saturday afternoon.
- Another storm system will move east across the Central Plains
Tuesday into Wednesday. Impacts may be mainly across southern SD
and points south, although some light accumulations generally
under 3 inches are possible over the area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Continuing to hash out thoughts about headlines this morning. Same
confidence issues persist with placement of the low and associated
snow totals. A little more concerned with sustained winds than
wind gusts tonight; they may merit a warning with sustained
speeds around 40 mph. No major changes in overall trends regarding the
upcoming winter storm, just fine-tuning the details.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 423 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
The main focus in the near term continues to be the storm system
beginning this evening and continuing on through Saturday. As the
low pressure center moves up out of the southwest, precipitation
along the north side of the low will impact the northeastern South
Dakota and western Minnesota portions of the forecast area,
beginning as rain this evening. The current trend in hi-res model
guidance suggests that the heaviest rainfall will stay to the south
and east of the forecast area tonight. Between 0.5"-0.75" would
still fall as rain through Saturday morning for areas east of the
James Valley. There are a few model scenarios hanging onto a
solution in which the heavier rainfall totals do make it up into
northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota, dumping an inch or
more of rain to the area. Probability for this scenario to play out
is between 10-30%, so it still represents a significant alternate
scenario for this event.
As the low pressure center progresses, strong northerly winds will
develop on the backside, impacting most of the forecast area through
the day Saturday. Sustained winds of 30-35 knots and gusts of 40-50
knots make this a higher end Wind Advisory, and consideration was
given to upgrading to a High Wind Warning. However, probabilities in
both the NBM and HREF ensembles for Wind Warning criteria remain
unconvincing (only showing small pockets of >50%), and even looking
at the NBM 90th percentile leaves much of the area just shy on
gusts. The potential is certainly there for an upgrade, and will
need to be re-evaluated during the day today.
Precipitation looks to change over from rain to winter precipitation
on Saturday morning, eventually ending up as snow for the duration
of the event. Hi-res model guidance displays some level of agreement
in the changeover to winter precipitation occurring somewhere around
10Z Saturday morning. However, strong low-level cold air advection
of 50-60 knots could help accelerate the cooldown by an hour or two
and push that transition earlier into the night. An inversion around
the 850mb level will also create a brief period of freezing rain or
potentially even sleet due to the warm nose melting hydrometeors to
liquid aloft. This warm nose will eventually push below freezing and
bring snow to the surface by Saturday morning.
Saturday morning will see the heaviest snow of the event, located
again over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. A moist
profile with good vertical lift throughout will have the potential
to create high snowfall rates. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty in the snowfall totals, with 25th-75th percentile
spreads over parts of the area reaching a difference of 5-6". This
large spread is in no small part due to a bit of a split in model
guidance, with a number of hi-res models resolve upwards of 6"
within the span of 6 hours (~40% chance between 12Z-18Z). The
majority of that snow would likely fall in the first few hours of
that timeframe (effectively the first few hours after the changeover
to snow) while the strongest omega is present throughout the deep
saturated layer. Only a few tenths of snow is forecasted to fall
after 18Z as the omega will decrease significantly and the lower
layer will eventually de-saturate behind the front. One additional
point of interest is that a small handful of models have begun to
push the band of heavy snow slightly east, but just enough to where
the highest totals may fall outside the Aberdeen forecast area,
instead moving further into Minnesota. While this is only
represented in a small percentage of the models, it is an additional
reason why the spread remains so high just 24 hours out.
The strong winds mentioned above will persist through the day
Saturday, leading to the potential for blizzard conditions Saturday
morning where snow is falling (or Saturday afternoon where snow has
accumulated). As a result, the Winter Storm Watch for Blizzard
Conditions for the James Valley and east remains in place from 06Z
Saturday through 00Z Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 423 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
At the start of the extended period, the storm system will have
moved east of the area as a narrow surface ridge axis builds into
the region. Still some breezy northwest winds to contend with early
on Saturday evening, but as the ridge builds in, winds go rather
light by 12Z Sunday. Skies also look to be mostly clear for a good
portion of the night, so we're setting the stage for some chilly
lows in the teens. Depending on how much snow the eastern CWA
receives on Saturday, these numbers may need to be dropped and would
not be surprised if single digits are realized.
Models still show a weak surface low skirting eastward across the
Dakotas and into MN Sunday night into Monday, but any precip chances
from this remain north into ND/MN, with a dry forecast persisting
across the CWA at this time.
Main focus in the extended period is the next (stronger) storm
system that moves east across the Central Plains Tuesday into
Wednesday. Surface low looks to eject eastward into the Plains
Tuesday/Tuesday night, with differences noted in location/track.
GEFS camp of solutions remains the furthest north with the mean
MSLP, taking the low center across NE into IA. Meanwhile, the
GEPS/ENS remain in agreement with each other, and further south with
the mean MSLP low center from KS to MO. The resultant snow output
also reveals the northern GEFS outlier, while GEPS/ENS remain
further south across southern SD into NE with highest impacts.
Probability for 24-hr snowfall greater than 2 inches show the
highest values (40-70%) across southern/southeast SD into NE and IA
when looking at GEPS/ENS output. GEFS remains further north into our
CWA with these values.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
A spring storm system will bring deteriorating conditions from
west to east through tonight as rain transitions to a wintry mix
and then to all snow. IFR vsby in blowing precipitation (rain or
snow) are expected at all sites at times. KATY is the most likely
location to see blizzard conditions develop Saturday morning. The
whole system exits to the east by the end of the taf period.
Northwest winds 25 to 35 kts with gusts up to 50 kts are possible
across the area through Saturday morning.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Saturday evening
for SDZ006>008-011-018>023.
Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday for SDZ003-015-
033-045-048.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday for
SDZ004-005-009-010-016-017-034>037-051.
MN...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Saturday evening
for MNZ039-046.
&&
UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WiseHazardous weather outlook, Mar 14, 4:32 AM CDT, 8 hours 36 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 432 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 SDZ003-015-033-045-048-150945- Corson-Dewey-Stanley-Jones-Lyman- 432 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 /332 AM MDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota and north central South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Strong northerly winds gusting to 45 to 60 miles per hour will arrive this afternoon. A Wind Advisory begins at 3 PM and continues through tonight. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. Travel may be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Strong northerly winds continue through the day Saturday. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. Travel may be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. The Wind Advisory is currently set to end at 1 PM on Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. SDZ004-005-009-010-016-017-034>037-051-150945- Campbell-McPherson-Walworth-Edmunds-Potter-Faulk-Sully-Hughes-Hyde- Hand-Buffalo- 432 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota and north central South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Strong northerly winds gusting to 45 to 60 miles per hour will arrive this afternoon. A Wind Advisory begins at 7 PM and continues through tonight. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. Travel may be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Strong northerly winds continue through the day Saturday. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. Travel may be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. The Wind Advisory is currently set to end at 1 PM on Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-150945- Traverse-Big Stone-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-Day-Spink-Clark-Codington- Grant-Hamlin-Deuel- 432 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota and northeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A storm system will move in this evening, bringing rain to northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. Precipitation will change over to a wintry mix of freezing rain and/or sleet and eventually snow late tonight. Strong norherly winds gusting to 45-60 miles per hour will also arrive tonight. These two factors will combine to potentially reduce visibilities late tonight. A Winter Storm Watch for Blizzard Conditions begins at 1 AM tonight. Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile, and whiteout conditions are possible. Travel may be difficult tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Winter Storm Watch for Blizzard Conditions continues on Saturday. Heavy snow will fall through the morning Saturday, and strong winds will continue to reduce visibilities, making travel hazardous. Some parts of northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota may see upwards of 6" of accumulation. Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile, and whiteout conditions are possible. Travel may be difficult through Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Aberdeen, SD issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 1:08 PM CDT | Blizzard Warning | ABR | Codington, Deuel, Grant, Hamlin, Roberts | 18 hr |
| Mar 14, 1:08 PM CDT | Winter Weather Advisory | ABR | Clark, Day, Marshall | 18 hr |
Nearby
High Wind Warnings in South Dakota, 2025Every high wind warning in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.