Winter Storm Warning 7, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1202 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1150 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

- Significant snow is expected over the Northern Mountains,
  northeast and east central New Mexico Friday through Saturday,
  though some rain may mix with snow at low elevations at times.
  Minor to moderate travel impacts are likely. Confidence is high
  for widespread wetting precipitation.

- Cold, with near record low max temperatures for eastern New
  Mexico on Saturday. Temperatures throughout the state will be 15
  to 40 degrees below normal.

- A warming trend begins on Sunday and continues through mid week.
  Dry conditions will prevail through this period.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A change to a wetter weather pattern is underway. Rain and snow
showers have developed across western NM, while rain showers and
thunderstorms continue across the east. This precipitation will
continue before becoming more widespread Friday night and Saturday,
especially across eastern NM, behind a potent cold front. Much
colder temperatures, a switch from rain to snow, and areas of
blowing snow will plague much of eastern NM. The front will push
through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain, bringing very strong
winds to the Albuquerque Metro Area and more rain and snow showers
to areas along and west of the Rio Grande Valley. Significant
snowfall accumulations will favor the Northern Mountains and
portions of eastern NM, while spotty amounts of 1 to 4 inches will
be common across western NM. Precipitation will diminish Saturday
night into Sunday, then a slow warming trend is on tap for next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Current satellite imagery shows the center of a low pressure system
over southeastern Utah that has brought isolated light snow showers
to the Four Corners region throughout the day. Deeper moisture over
eastern New Mexico has allowed for a persistent band of clouds and
sprinkles to remain strewn across southeastern parts of the state.
Current surface observations show a dewpoint gradient which can be
seen on satellite as the boundary between these mid to high clouds
and a dry slot over central New Mexico where conditions are clearer.
It is along this pseudo dry line where new convection is popping
up, particularly in northeastern areas where there is more
favorable instability and shear. These high base storms have
already produced a couple of lightning strikes near the NM-TX
border. These isolated storms may also produce gusty and erratic
outflows and some light sprinkles, but they should diminish by
late afternoon. Northeast areas have had a pretty steady southwest
wind throughout the day, with Clayton having gusted up to 50 mph
earlier in the afternoon. Winds will diminish after sunset,
becoming light after the evening hours.

For tomorrow, all the attention turns to the late season winter
storm approaching from the west. Behind the low in southeastern
Utah, a secondary trough digs south into Arizona, with pressure
heights dropping as a low pressure center forms along the U.S. and
Mexican border. As the system approaches the area, it begins to
interact with some deeper Gulf moisture in eastern New Mexico.
Precipitation mainly develops on either side of the dry slot over
central New Mexico, but all areas will see increased cloud cover
tonight and into tomorrow. Chances of rain first develop for
southeastern areas early tomorrow morning and continue into the
afternoon. Higher amounts of up to an inch may fall for locations
near the Texas border such as Clovis and Portales. Chances for
precipitation then expand as potent backdoor cold front begins to
push through northeast New Mexico on Friday afternoon. As this
backdoor cold front continues southwest, rain will transition to
snow along eastern New Mexico and accumulations will start to ramp
up along the northern mountains. There are currently Winter Storm
Watches for the Sangre De Cristo Mountains, Tusas Mountains, and
Jemez Mountains, as well as for areas east of the mountains and
south towards Quay and Curry county. Bumped down liquid equivalent
QPF for the Friday night period, but there is still about a 50 to
60% chance of snowfall greater than a foot for the high peaks of the
Sangre De Cristo mountains. Another area of concern will be along
the I-40 corridor as the front interacts with the deeper Gulf
moisture. There is still some uncertainty about the timing of the
rain to snow transition, which would depend on how fast and cold the
front is. In any case, temperatures will drop significantly behind
the backdoor front and wind gusts could get as high as 55 mph. For
the RGV, this may limit snowfall accumulations, but for areas along
the eastern plains, these strong winds may contribute to areas of
blowing snow which will create hazardous driving conditions. Minor
to moderate winter impacts are expected along the eastern half of
the state.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

By 6am Saturday, the backdoor cold front will have pushed through
the majority of the eastern plains and much of the rain will have
changed over to snowfall. Strong northerly winds behind the front
will be resulting in poor visibility and difficult driving
conditions in blowing snow. The front will have also pushed through
the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain, and 50 to 60 mph wind gusts
will be ongoing across the ABQ Metro. As the front continues
westward, with daytime heating additional rain and snow showers will
develop over western NM. Meanwhile, snow will persist across the
Northern Mountains and snow or a rain/snow mix will persist across
the eastern NM through the day Saturday. Forecast soundings suggest
only the lowest few hundred feet, if that, will be above freezing in
some of the lowest elevation areas of eastern NM, so snow vs. rain
will be dependent on terrain/elevation. Total snowfall amounts of 8
to 12 inches with locally higher amounts near 15 inches are expected
across the Northern Mountains and along the NM/CO border near Raton
Pass. Snowfall amounts across western NM will be spotty, but will
generally range from 1 to 4 inches. Total snowfall amounts of 1 to 4
inches will also be common across eastern NM, though higher amounts
near 6 inches will be possible near/along the I-40 and I-25
corridors and the Caprock. Little snow accumulation remains on tap
for the Rio Grande Valley.

The upper level low aiding the precipitation will be shifting from
west to east south of the NM/MX border on Saturday. This is a little
farther south as compared to yesterday. This farther south track
will aid in the stronger east winds in the ABQ Metro, but also will
limit how much precipitation occurs across the west on Saturday,
since the area won't be directly under the low and benefit from the
steeper mid level lapse rates - hence the lower snow
amounts/coverage. High temperatures on Saturday will struggle to
reach above freezing across much of eastern NM.  Most areas east of
the Central Mountain Chain will be 30 to 40 degrees below normal for
early April. The west will be chilly as well, with most areas
between 15 and 25 degrees below normal.

The upper level low will eject northeastward Saturday night leaving
cold, meridional flow in its wake. Most, if not all, areas will see
a hard freeze Saturday night. Outdoor plants/crops will need to
protected if they have been already planted for the season.

The warming trend begins on Sunday and continues through mid week.
Sunday's temperatures will remain below normal areawide, most
significantly snow where snow is on the ground. By Tuesday
afternoon, all areas should be a few degrees above normal. Dry
conditions will be the rule Sunday afternoon through at least mid
week, but fortunately, little wind is in store. A few breezes will
be noted Sunday afternoon across central and western NM, then more
widespread breezy conditions on Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A slow-moving upper level storm system taking shape over southern
AZ tonight will begin moving east into NM Friday with widespread
impacts to the airspace. Low level moisture surging westward into
the approaching low tonight will help develop widespread -RA and
MVFR cigs along and east of a line from KTCC to KROW thru Friday
morning. Instability beneath the low Friday afternoon will then
allow scattered to numerous SHRA/TS to develop over northern and
western NM. This activity will produce brief MVFR cigs with rain,
snow, hail, gusty winds, and some lightning strikes. A strong
backdoor cold front will then surge southwest into eastern NM late
Friday afternoon and change rain to snow from north to south thru
Friday night. Widespread IFR with snow and BLSN is likely in many
areas north and east of KABQ after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions in northeastern
New Mexico will diminish throughout the evening as winds speeds
begin to die down. Fire weather concerns then drastically lessen
as a widespread rain/snow event is looking increasingly more
likely Friday and Saturday. A strong backdoor cold will push into
eastern New Mexico on Friday evening bringing much colder air into
the region. This will create a transition from rain to snow from
north to south across the eastern plains on Friday night. Heavy
snow will be possible for the Sangre De Cristo mountains and
adjacent eastern slopes. Overall precipitation amounts are likely
to average 0.25 to 0.75" across eastern NM. Central parts of the
state look to remain a little bit drier as canyon gap wind could
create a snow/rain hole along the Rio Grande Valley.

Warm and dry conditions look to return early next week as high
pressure ridging builds over the Desert Southwest. Fortunately,
winds look to remain pretty light, so minimal concerns for fire
weather conditions at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  27  54  32  52 /   5  20  30  50
Dulce...........................  15  50  20  47 /   5  40  70  50
Cuba............................  23  49  24  43 /  10  40  80  70
Gallup..........................  16  47  19  47 /   5  50  30  60
El Morro........................  23  44  25  42 /  10  60  70  70
Grants..........................  19  51  21  45 /  10  50  70  70
Quemado.........................  24  46  25  45 /  10  70  60  60
Magdalena.......................  30  52  28  42 /   5  40  60  80
Datil...........................  26  47  27  41 /   5  50  70  70
Reserve.........................  21  52  20  54 /  10  60  40  60
Glenwood........................  26  56  24  60 /   5  50  30  60
Chama...........................  14  43  19  40 /  10  60  80  50
Los Alamos......................  30  49  28  39 /   0  50  90  70
Pecos...........................  27  46  26  38 /   0  60 100  80
Cerro/Questa....................  23  45  23  39 /   5  70  90  60
Red River.......................  18  34  16  29 /  10  80 100  70
Angel Fire......................  16  42  14  32 /   5  80 100  80
Taos............................  18  50  19  40 /   0  60  90  60
Mora............................  22  45  20  35 /   0  70 100  80
Espanola........................  25  57  27  46 /   0  50  90  60
Santa Fe........................  30  50  29  38 /   0  60  90  80
Santa Fe Airport................  27  54  28  43 /   0  60  90  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  37  55  36  46 /   5  40  80  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  34  58  33  47 /   5  40  80  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  32  60  32  49 /   5  40  80  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  34  58  33  48 /   5  40  80  50
Belen...........................  29  60  28  49 /   5  30  80  50
Bernalillo......................  32  58  32  48 /   5  40  80  60
Bosque Farms....................  29  60  29  48 /   5  40  80  50
Corrales........................  32  59  32  49 /   5  40  80  60
Los Lunas.......................  30  60  30  48 /   5  40  80  50
Placitas........................  34  54  33  44 /   5  50  80  70
Rio Rancho......................  34  58  33  47 /   5  40  80  60
Socorro.........................  35  62  33  52 /   0  30  60  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  28  49  28  39 /   5  50  90  80
Tijeras.........................  30  52  29  40 /   5  50  90  80
Edgewood........................  24  52  26  37 /   5  50  90  80
Moriarty/Estancia...............  19  53  22  40 /   5  50  80  80
Clines Corners..................  26  47  21  31 /   5  60  90  80
Mountainair.....................  26  51  25  36 /   5  40  80  80
Gran Quivira....................  28  53  25  34 /   5  40  70  80
Carrizozo.......................  35  56  29  41 /  20  30  60  80
Ruidoso.........................  32  48  27  32 /  30  40  60  90
Capulin.........................  28  41  16  28 /  30  80 100  80
Raton...........................  26  48  20  35 /   5  80 100  70
Springer........................  27  50  22  35 /   5  70 100  70
Las Vegas.......................  24  47  21  33 /   5  70 100  80
Clayton.........................  37  49  22  36 /  20  70 100  70
Roy.............................  34  50  23  34 /  10  60 100  80
Conchas.........................  39  56  28  38 /  10  60 100  90
Santa Rosa......................  36  53  27  33 /  20  60  90  90
Tucumcari.......................  39  57  28  36 /  40  60 100 100
Clovis..........................  41  54  28  35 /  70  60  90 100
Portales........................  42  54  28  36 /  80  60  90 100
Fort Sumner.....................  40  56  28  35 /  40  60  90  90
Roswell.........................  45  58  36  40 /  60  60  80  90
Picacho.........................  37  54  29  37 /  30  50  70  90
Elk.............................  34  51  27  37 /  40  40  50  80

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
afternoon for NMZ212-223-228>235.

Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
afternoon for NMZ210-211-213>215-227.

&&

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...42

Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated on or about Friday, April 4.