Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1108 AM MST Mon Mar 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1049 AM MST Mon Mar 3 2025

- Fire Weather: Rapid spread of any fires in central and eastern
  New Mexico today due to critical to extreme fire weather
  conditions. Strong winds stick around Tuesday, but a slight
  increase in moisture will produce only near-critical fire
  weather conditions across southern areas.

- Strong Winds and Blowing Dust: Strong to damaging winds will
  create areas of blowing dust that may reduce visibility on
  roadways, including in Roswell on Monday and Tuesday.

- Winter Weather: Snow and blowing snow may create difficult
  travel in far northeastern NM Tuesday morning, with potential
  for blizzard conditions between Raton Pass and Clayton. Light
  snow on mountain routes will create minor impacts.

- Outlook: Confidence is increasing in another round of strong
  winds and critical fire weather in central and eastern areas
  Thursday. A colder and wetter Pacific storm may bring more
  precipitation late Friday, with snow level lowering.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM MST Mon Mar 3 2025

A Pacific storm system will bring strong to potentially damaging
winds to eastern and portions of central NM today, along with areas
of blowing dust. Strong winds will continue overnight and Tuesday,
especially across eastern NM. A round of snow will combine with the
strong winds to produce blizzard conditions across far northeast
NM Tuesday morning. Expect a break on Wednesday, followed by more
strong to potentially damaging winds and blowing dust on Thursday
when another Pacific storm system approaches. This system will
bring snow to the northern and western mountains, followed by
another round that may focus further south across the area Friday
night. More tranquil and warmer conditions are forecast by Sunday,
with much less wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM MST Mon Mar 3 2025

A strong upper level low pressure system will cross the central
Rockies today and tonight, then deepen quickly while exiting
slowly eastward over the Great Plains on Tuesday. The storm system
will draw a strong southwest-to-northeast oriented jetstreak over
southern and eastern parts of the forecast area today, then a
strong northwest-to-southeast oriented jetstreak over the forecast
area on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a very strong surface low will bottom
out around 986 mb over eastern CO today and tonight, then track
southeastward over OK on Tuesday. Together, these features will
result in very strong winds today, through tonight, and much of
Tuesday. With this forecast package, we are buffeting the ongoing
Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning with additional Wind
Advisories over central and southwest parts of the forecast area.
A zone to keep an eye on today is Gallup, since guidance suggests
gusts up to 50 mph are possible there around midday, but a thick
mid cloud deck is forecast to arrive as well...likely preventing
enough atmospheric mixing for winds to get that strong. Winds will
probably weaken some with sunset this evening as the
southwesterly jetstreak begins to shift east of the state, but
they will strengthen again around midnight as the upper low
deepens intensely and rapidly once it gets east of the CO Rockies
strengthening northwest flow aloft over NM. With this forecast
package we are bumping up the start time of tonight's High Wind
Watch over portions of eastern NM, and expanding it to a few more
zones.

Besides the wind there will be precipitation. Rain showers, snow
showers, and a few thunderstorms are forecast over the northwest
third of the forecast today.  Precip will then spread to include
central and northeast parts of the forecast area tonight, then be
relegated to northeast and far east central areas on Tuesday. The
northern and west central mountains have the potential to accumulate
a few to around 8 inches of snow mainly above 7500 feet tonight.
With this forecast package we will defer to the day shift to issue
any Winter Weather Advisories for the northern and west central
mountains.  However, we will issue a Blizzard Watch for Raton pass
and Union County for late tonight and Tuesday, since wind gusts are
likely to reach 70 mph there with a few inches of snow that will
produce whiteout conditions for much of the time from 3 AM until
noon.  Most of this snow looks to accumulate between Raton and
Clayton, and especially around Capulin.

High temperatures will plummet below 30-year averages over central
and western areas today with the clouds and precip, and the arrival
of a Pacific cold front. Then, they will plummet below 30 year
averages over eastern areas as well on Tuesday after the arrival
of a gusty backdoor cold front Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM MST Mon Mar 3 2025

Strong winds will continue across eastern NM into the early evening
on Tuesday, but then quickly diminish as the upper low accelerates
east and away from the area. An upper level ridge will transition
east across the region Wednesday, bringing the one nice day of the
work week with much less wind and temperatures within several degrees
of average. Another potent upper level trough/low will hit the west
coast late Wednesday, then move east across the Great Basin and Desert
SW Wednesday night. A 150kt jet at 300mb will transition east ahead
of the trough and across NM on Thursday, combining with a deepening
lee side surface trough down to 988mb to bring another round of
strong to damaging winds and areas of blowing dust. The initial
upper low is forecast to lift northeast into the central Rockies
Thursday as another upper low associated with a jet maxima dives
south along the west coast. All the while, Pacific moisture will be
over the region and both forcing from the parent trough and orographic
forcing from strong westerly winds will bring much-needed snow to the
western and northern mountains with a mix of rain/snow at the lowest
elevations. The 2nd upper low will take a more southerly track and move
across southern NM late Friday into early Saturday morning, bringing
some much-needed snow to the southern mountains. Friday won't be nearly
as windy as Thursday due to the track and timing of the 2nd upper low.
If the track of the 2nd upper low is as advertised by the 00Z
operational runs of the ECMWF and GFS, which are in good agreement,
don't be surprised if it brings some snow to the Albuquerque Metro
Friday night. An upper level ridge will amplify across the
Intermountain West on Saturday and begin to move east toward the
Rockies, bringing improving conditions to NM. By Sunday, the ridge
will be oriented over NM and temperatures will rise above normal
areawide with fairly light winds and plenty of sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 AM MST Mon Mar 3 2025

An extended period of moderate to major impacts to the airspace
is taking shape with a powerful storm system developing over the
southern Rockies. Strong southwest to west winds will impact all
terminals thru late this afternoon with gusts of 40-50KT common,
along with areas of BLDU and potential IFR vsby restrictions at
times. Winds will shift out of the west late this afternoon as a
Pacific cold front surges from west to east thru the state. Rain
and snow showers over northern and western NM may produce brief
MVFR cigs/vsbys thru tonight with mt obscurations likely across
northern NM. The focus will shift to northeast NM Tuesday morning
where north winds may gust to between 55 and 65KT from near KCAO
to KTCC. Snow and blowing snow is also expected to impact KCAO
with blizzard-like conditions for a few hours Tuesday morning.
BLDU is likely again with these powerful north winds as far south
as KTCC and KCVN. Strong north and northwest winds will continue
for much of central and eastern NM Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM MST Mon Mar 3 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM TODAY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN NM...

A fire growing pattern will develop today and continue Tuesday. A
strong upper level low pressure system crossing the central
Rockies will steer a strong southwesterly speed maximum in the
polar jet over southern and eastern areas today, then a strong
northwesterly speed max over the forecast area tonight and
Tuesday. Wind gusts around 65 or 70 mph are forecast east of the
central mountain chain today with gusts from 35-50 mph further
west. After southwest winds briefly weaken with sunset, northwest
winds will become very strong again around midnight tonight and
continue through Tuesday. Northwest wind gusts from 40-65 mph
look common on Tuesday in the wake of the exiting system, except
potentially over 70 mph over northeast areas. Humidities will drop
near and below 15 percent across south central and eastern parts
of the forecast area today, where Red Flag Warnings remain in
effect. Humidities will be higher on Tuesday as temperatures fall
below average, so we aren't planning any fire weather highlights
Tuesday unless there are active fires after today. Rain and snow
showers are forecast over western and northern areas tonight
through Tuesday. Snow accumulation of a few to several inches is
forecast mainly in the northern and west central mountains mostly
tonight. A few inches of snow are also forecast over far northeast
areas late tonight and Tuesday, where blizzard conditions are
likely.

A ridge of high pressure will pass eastward over the forecast area
with lighter winds Wednesday, then a broad upper level low
pressure system crossing the central Rockies will bring another
round of wind and fire weather concerns Thursday and to a lesser
extent Friday. The potential exists for widespread wetting precip
on Saturday as an upper level low pressure system crosses from the
west with a tap of subtropical moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  47  29  54  25 /  70  50   0   0
Dulce...........................  45  19  51  14 /  60  50   5   0
Cuba............................  45  24  46  20 /  40  70   5   0
Gallup..........................  43  22  52  14 /  50  80   0   0
El Morro........................  39  23  46  23 /  40  80   0   0
Grants..........................  45  24  52  16 /  20  60   0   0
Quemado.........................  43  24  48  22 /  20  40   5   0
Magdalena.......................  49  29  51  29 /   0  20   0   0
Datil...........................  43  25  47  24 /   5  20   0   0
Reserve.........................  47  21  58  17 /  20  30   5   0
Glenwood........................  51  24  61  23 /  20  20   0   0
Chama...........................  39  17  44  16 /  70  50  10   0
Los Alamos......................  50  27  49  29 /  20  60  10   0
Pecos...........................  53  27  49  24 /   5  30  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  46  21  45  22 /  30  50  10   5
Red River.......................  39  17  39  18 /  30  60  20   5
Angel Fire......................  43  20  41  17 /  30  50  20   0
Taos............................  49  22  49  17 /  20  50  10   0
Mora............................  52  24  46  19 /  10  30  10   0
Espanola........................  56  28  56  24 /  10  50   5   0
Santa Fe........................  51  27  51  28 /  10  50  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  54  28  54  25 /  10  40  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  55  30  56  36 /   5  30   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  55  32  58  32 /   0  20   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  56  32  59  29 /   0  20   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  32  57  30 /   0  30   5   0
Belen...........................  58  31  61  25 /   0  20   5   0
Bernalillo......................  56  32  58  29 /   5  30   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  56  31  60  25 /   0  20   5   0
Corrales........................  56  32  58  29 /   0  30   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  56  31  60  24 /   0  20   5   0
Placitas........................  54  30  55  32 /   5  30   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  55  31  57  31 /   5  30   5   0
Socorro.........................  60  35  62  32 /   0   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  52  27  49  30 /   5  30   5   0
Tijeras.........................  55  29  54  31 /   5  30   5   0
Edgewood........................  58  28  53  29 /   0  20   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  58  26  54  21 /   0  20   0   0
Clines Corners..................  53  26  48  23 /   0  20   0   0
Mountainair.....................  56  27  53  27 /   0  10   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  55  28  52  25 /   0   5   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  57  30  56  32 /   0   5   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  52  27  48  30 /   0   5   0   0
Capulin.........................  56  26  39  17 /   0  70  60   0
Raton...........................  59  27  48  17 /   0  50  30   5
Springer........................  61  29  52  18 /   0  30  20   0
Las Vegas.......................  56  29  52  20 /   0  20   5   0
Clayton.........................  68  29  46  23 /   0  50  50   0
Roy.............................  62  30  52  22 /   0  20  10   0
Conchas.........................  70  36  62  26 /   0  10  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  64  35  58  26 /   0   5   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  72  37  61  25 /   0  10  20   0
Clovis..........................  73  33  60  28 /   0   0  20   0
Portales........................  74  33  61  27 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  71  36  62  26 /   0   0   5   0
Roswell.........................  76  38  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  66  33  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  64  29  56  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ223>240.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ104-106-109-
123>126.

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon
for NMZ227-230.

High Wind Watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon for
NMZ228-231-234>236-238.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ212-214-215-218-
219-241.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ220>222.

High Wind Watch from this evening through Tuesday afternoon for
NMZ223-224-226-233-237-239-240.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1145 AM MST Mon Mar 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 E Santa Rosa          34.94N 104.64W
03/03/2025  M59 MPH          Guadalupe          NM   AWOS

            AWOS station KSXU Santa Rosa Airport.

&&

ANM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1155 AM MST Mon Mar 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 19 WSW Oscuro           33.40N 106.36W
03/03/2025  M65 MPH          Lincoln            NM   Mesonet

            Mesonet station WSM06 Pole 616 (WSMR).

&&

ANM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1156 AM MST Mon Mar 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 28 SE Bosque del Apache 33.49N 106.60W
03/03/2025  M59 MPH          Socorro            NM   Mesonet

            Mesonet station WSM33 Zumwalt Track (WSMR).

&&

ANM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1202 PM MST Mon Mar 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 7 NW Willard            34.67N 106.12W
03/03/2025  M61 MPH          Torrance           NM   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW3653 Estancia 7 SSW.

&&

ANM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1239 PM MST Mon Mar 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 E Puerto De Luna      34.83N 104.56W
03/03/2025  M63 MPH          Guadalupe          NM   Mesonet

            Mesonet station CELN5 Puerto De Luna 3.3 E.

&&

ANM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
135 PM MST Mon Mar 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     Dust Storm       2 SSW Midway            33.26N 104.46W
03/03/2025                   Chaves             NM   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Multiple vehicle crash, including
            semi-tucks, on US 285 south of Roswell due
            to near-zero visibility in blowing dust.

&&

MBD