Wind Advisory 16, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Bernalillo County, NM, Catron County, NM, Chaves County, NM, Cibola County, NM, Colfax County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Los Alamos County, NM, McKinley County, NM, Mora County, NM, Quay County, NM, Rio Arriba County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, San Juan County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Sandoval County, NM, Santa Fe County, NM, Socorro County, NM, Taos County, NM, Torrance County, NM, Union County, NM, Valencia County, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1026 AM MST Wed Mar 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1012 AM MST Wed Mar 5 2025

- Another round of strong to damaging winds and critical fire
  weather will develop on Thursday, especially across central and
  eastern New Mexico. Widespread areas of low visibility in
  blowing dust will impact much of northern and central New
  Mexico, and any fires will have the potential to spread rapidly
  due to the dry and windy conditions.

- Light rain and snow showers will develop in western and
  northern New Mexico Thursday into Friday before expanding
  eastward Friday night and early Saturday. Snow accumulations of
  a couple to a few (2-6) inches will be common in the western and
  northern mountains and surrounding highlands with lesser
  amounts elsewhere. Wintry travel will impact these higher
  elevation areas (above 7,000 feet).

- Dry and tranquil weather will prevail Sunday and Monday, but
  another windy day is forecast on Tuesday of next week with more
  critical fire weather in central and eastern areas that will
  remain dry.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 AM MST Wed Mar 5 2025

A short-lived, but welcome break from the strong March winds will
arrive today. Temperatures will be considerably warmer, rising
above normal in most of northern and central New Mexico. However,
another stretch of cooler, unsettled weather will arrive Thursday,
Friday, and Saturday with more strong winds and additional rain
and snow. Winds will be strongest on Thursday along and east of
the central mountain chain where gusts may exceed 60 mph and cause
damage to trees, utility poles, and power lines. Snow will be
mainly focused over the western and northern mountains with the
higher accumulations occurring Friday night into early Saturday
when 2 to 6 inches will be common above 7,000 feet and lighter
amounts in surrounding areas. Rain and snow will slowly taper off
and exit the state late Saturday with dry and more seasonable
weather starting next week. Strong winds will return by Tuesday
though.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM MST Wed Mar 5 2025

A ridge of high pressure will cross from the west today with lighter
winds, but they will still be gusty in the mountains and at lower
elevations east of the central mountain chain. High temperatures
will generally climb a few to around 15 degrees above Tuesday's
readings, or from near to around 10 degrees above 1991-2020
averages. A few to 14 degrees of additional warming are forecast
over central and eastern areas on Thursday, but readings will cool
a few to 10 degrees over western areas as a gusty Pacific cold
front moves in.

Another round of very strong wind is forecast on Thursday as a broad
upper level low pressure system migrating from the Great Basin over
the central Rockies steers a southwesterly jetstream over NM. Wind
speeds at 700 mb are forecast to vary in the 40-60 KT range with the
strongest speeds aloft crossing central and eastern parts of the
forecast area in the afternoon around the time of peak atmospheric
mixing. Meanwhile, a surface low pressure system is forecast to
bottom out around 988 mb over southeast CO on Thursday afternoon
inducing a very strong surface pressure gradient. These
ingredients will produce another round of damaging winds along and
just east of the central mountain chain. A limiting factor for
wind speeds will be abundant high clouds that are forecast to
develop areawide tonight, then clear out over central and perhaps
northeast areas with the arrival of a dry slot early Thursday
afternoon. Favored deterministic models are in fairly good
agreement that the high clouds may not clear out along and east of
a line from Roswell to Clovis until around sunset, which would
significantly inhibit atmospheric mixing and prevent winds from
getting as strong as MOS guidance currently suggests. So, with
this forecast package, we forecast wind speeds on the lower side
of guidance over southeast areas and the Caprock, but speeds will
still be strong enough for blowing dust and fire weather concerns.
With this forecast package we are issuing a High Wind Watch along
and just east of the central mountain, where the dry slot is
forecast to clear out the high clouds early Thursday afternoon.
Peak gusts in the Watch area will probably reach 50-65 mph, with
peak gusts varying in the 35-50 mph range elsewhere across the
forecast area. Wind speeds will weaken with sunset.

The upper low will also produce some rain and high terrain snow
showers over far western and north central areas near the CO border
Thursday, but wetting precip should be pretty spotty. The
northern mountains near the CO border may accumulate a few inches
of snow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM MST Wed Mar 5 2025

A steady stream of positive vorticity is modeled to continue
entering NM through Friday as an upstream low takes shape over AZ.
This along with some weak orographic forcing in stiff westerly
flow will keeping light rain and snow showers developing over
western and northern zones Friday. The position of the upstream AZ
low will shove the mid level jet farther south, taking the
strongest surface winds into south central NM zones with lower
speeds (but still windy conditions) found over the east central
plains Friday afternoon.

The upper low is now projected to swing eastward on a track
across southern NM Friday night which could be more beneficial for
rain and snow coverage in our forecast area. POPs have been
steadily increasing and expanding during the Friday night to
Saturday time frame, as large scale ascent associated with the low
and a well- defined trowal feature are still being modeled. The
sweet spot of the trowal looks to be most favorable for
northeastern to east central zones where higher QPF totals are
aligning, but any deviations in track will certainly redistribute
this. A slower exit of the low is also being depicted now with
rain and snow looking to persist longer through the day on
Saturday. In fact, many central valleys and eastern plains
locations could still see some light snow falling through Saturday
morning. The more significant snow accumulations would stack up
above 7,000 feet in the western, northern, and central mountains
and highlands where 2 to 6 inches will be common with isolated
higher amounts nearing 8 to 10 inches above 10,000 feet.

A broad and strong upper level ridge will move over NM on Sunday
before getting shunted eastward into Monday of next week. This
will lead to warmer, drier, and less windy conditions. However,
the active and progressive pattern will stay intact with the split
flow quickly bringing the next upstream trough into the picture
for NM by Tuesday. Another round of light precipitation would
break out over the western and north central zones while stronger
winds also arrive and likely provide more notable impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1012 AM MST Wed Mar 5 2025

Tranquil weather conditions today with VFR prevailing thru tonight
and into Thursday morning. Breezy afternoon winds with gusts of 15
to 20 kts will be common this afternoon, persisting thru much of
tonight outside of protected valley areas. An approaching storm
system from the west will bring increasing southwesterly winds
aloft tonight into Thursday morning. This increases the risks from
LLWS, notably along the Continental Divide and central mountain
chain of NM. Have included LLWS at KGUP and KLVS to account for
this. These stronger winds begin to reach down to ground level at
exposed terminals by 15Z to 18Z at the end of the TAF period. Look
for quickly strengthening southwesterly winds across all of NM
with the 00Z TAF package for Thursday afternoon. Blowing dust will
again raise the risk of visibility impacts at dust prone
terminals like KROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM MST Wed Mar 5 2025

A ridge of high pressure will pass eastward over the forecast area
with lighter winds and warmer temperatures today, but it will still
be gusty over the mountains and east. A broad upper level low
pressure system crossing the central Rockies will bring another
round of wind and fire weather concerns Thursday. Wind gusts from 35-
50 mph will be common in the afternoon, except up to 65 mph along
and just east of the central mountain chain. Confidence in the
current wind speed forecast is low to moderate east of the central
mountain chain due to uncertainty about when a broad shield of
high clouds will clear out. However, a 988 mb surface low over
southeast CO should still induce winds strong enough to reach
critical thresholds. Humidities will plummet near and below 17
percent across much of the area along and east of I-25 Thursday
afternoon and early evening, while humidities farther west remain
mostly in the 20s-30s percent as a gusty Pacific cold front moves
in with a chance for rain and snow showers. The northern
mountains near the CO border may accumulate a few inches of snow
on Thursday.

Breezy conditions will return to eastern areas Friday as
temperatures fall below 30-year averages most places. Humidities
look to climb above 16 percent areawide as another upper level
low pressure system begins to cross from the west. Models are now
in fairly good agreement that the center of the upper low will
pass eastward over the southern third of NM, casting the main
precipitation shield over northern and central NM. So, confidence
is growing in widespread rain and mainly mountain snow showers
developing along and west of the central mountain chain Friday,
then spreading to include the remainder of the fire weather
forecast area Friday night as the snow level drops to valley
bottoms. Precip will then decrease from west to east Saturday
afternoon and evening. A few to 6 inches of snow accumulation will
be possible in the mountains, with a few to 5 inches at lower
elevations of the northeast with the arrival of a gusty backdoor
cold front Friday night.

After a cool start to the weekend, temperatures will trend warmer,
the weather will dry out, and ventilation will become poor early
next week as a broad ridge of high pressure crosses from the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  39  55  28  47 /  10  30  30  40
Dulce...........................  27  51  17  45 /  30  70  50  40
Cuba............................  34  56  23  45 /   5  20  20  50
Gallup..........................  34  52  20  44 /   5  30  40  60
El Morro........................  35  51  24  41 /   0  20  30  70
Grants..........................  32  56  23  46 /   0  10  20  60
Quemado.........................  37  53  25  44 /   0  20  20  70
Magdalena.......................  40  60  31  51 /   0   0   0  50
Datil...........................  37  54  26  46 /   0  10  10  60
Reserve.........................  33  55  23  48 /   5  20  30  80
Glenwood........................  40  60  28  51 /   5  20  30  80
Chama...........................  26  45  17  38 /  40  70  40  40
Los Alamos......................  37  57  29  43 /   0  10  20  30
Pecos...........................  34  59  26  46 /   0  10   5  30
Cerro/Questa....................  31  51  24  43 /  10  20  20  30
Red River.......................  27  42  20  33 /  20  30  20  30
Angel Fire......................  27  49  22  39 /  20  30  20  30
Taos............................  29  56  23  46 /   5  20  20  20
Mora............................  32  57  23  46 /   0  10   5  20
Espanola........................  35  64  27  52 /   0  10  10  10
Santa Fe........................  36  59  29  46 /   0  10  10  40
Santa Fe Airport................  35  63  29  49 /   0   5  10  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  43  65  37  52 /   0   0   5  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  41  67  35  54 /   0   0   0  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  40  69  31  56 /   0   0   0  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  39  67  33  54 /   0   0   0  40
Belen...........................  39  70  32  56 /   0   0   0  40
Bernalillo......................  39  68  33  56 /   0   0   5  30
Bosque Farms....................  39  69  30  56 /   0   0   0  40
Corrales........................  39  68  33  56 /   0   0   5  30
Los Lunas.......................  39  69  31  56 /   0   0   0  40
Placitas........................  40  65  35  51 /   0   0   5  40
Rio Rancho......................  39  67  33  54 /   0   0   5  30
Socorro.........................  41  71  35  61 /   0   0   0  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  38  60  30  48 /   0   0   5  50
Tijeras.........................  39  62  32  49 /   0   0   5  50
Edgewood........................  36  63  30  50 /   0   0   0  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  33  65  27  51 /   0   0   0  30
Clines Corners..................  36  59  26  47 /   0   0   0  20
Mountainair.....................  39  63  30  51 /   0   0   0  30
Gran Quivira....................  37  63  30  51 /   0   0   0  30
Carrizozo.......................  43  65  37  55 /   0   0   0  20
Ruidoso.........................  43  59  34  49 /   0   0   0  20
Capulin.........................  31  62  26  48 /   0   0   0   5
Raton...........................  29  65  25  51 /   0   0   0  10
Springer........................  31  67  28  53 /   0   0   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  35  62  27  49 /   0   0   0   5
Clayton.........................  36  70  32  56 /   0   0   0   5
Roy.............................  36  67  32  54 /   0   0   0   5
Conchas.........................  39  74  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  39  71  36  57 /   0   0   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  40  75  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  39  74  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  40  75  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  39  74  36  64 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  40  78  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  41  70  39  62 /   0   0   0   5
Elk.............................  43  67  38  60 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for NMZ212-214-215-221>226-228-229-231>233-239-240.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MST Thursday for NMZ104-106-
123>126.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24