Wind Advisory 11, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1100 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025

- A potent winter storm will impact the region tonight through
  Saturday. Travel impacts from heavy snow and blowing snow will
  be most favored across the northern high terrain while lower
  elevations will remain mostly rain, transitioning to a mix of
  rain and snow Friday night.

- Windy conditions will impact the area on Friday, particularly
  within the high terrain, creating hazardous crosswinds as well
  as reduced visibility in areas of blowing snow.

- There is increasing model agreement for a quick-moving storm
  that will bring additional light to moderate snowfall to the
  northern mountains and portions of northeast New Mexico Monday
  night through Tuesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 203 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025

Bitterly cold and dangerous wind chills will be common this morning
across northeast New Mexico. Please take the necessary precautions
to reduce the risk for frostbite and hypothermia. A potent storm is
expected to bring a considerable increase in moisture to the Land of
Enchantment tonight through Friday night. Significant accumulations
of snow can be expected across the western and northern high terrain
with primarily rain transitioning to a mix of rain and snow for the
lower elevations. Stronger winds will accompany this storm system,
especially on Friday. This will create hazardous crosswinds as well
as reduced visibility in blowing snow. Notably warmer readings are
forecast on Monday before a fast-moving system brings another surge
of colder temperatures and winter weather Monday night and Tuesday.
At this time, winter impacts to travel appear to favor the northern
mountains and northeast plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 203 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025

Widespread low clouds and patchy fog over eastern NM early this
morning will clear from west to east thru late morning as surface
winds veer around to the south and southwest. Confidence is high on
clearing by 1pm given the 07Z NBM probabilities (probs) for cigs
<3kft fall below 20% by 11am. An extremely dry airmass currently
over central and western NM will also mix out the low level
moisture over eastern NM as 700-500mb layer winds back from west
to southwest and surface low pressure deepens along the Front
Range. Max temps today will trend 15 to 25F warmer over northeast
NM while central and western areas warm about 5 to 10F warmer than
yesterday. High clouds will be increasing from west to east by
late day as a very moist storm system approaches from the west.

Strong moisture advection will arrive this evening from west to east
while NAEFS precipitable water values increase from near -2 standard
deviations (stdev) below climo to near +2 stdev above climo by late
tonight. Ridge top winds will increase tonight while 700-500mb layer
winds increase to between 30 and 40kt ahead of a 100kt upper level
speed max. Mid level warm advection will help to keep snow levels
above 8,000ft thru tonight with perhaps a brief period of rain/snow
mix this evening down to 7,000ft before wet bulb zero heights rise.
The snow characteristic will be on the wetter side which will help
limit the potential for blowing snow. Travel conditions may take
longer to deteriorate in the higher terrain given from the recent
warmth. However, snow rates in excess of 2"/hr at times around
Chama may be enough to quickly deteriorate travel overnight.

Large-scale ascent will improve over the region Friday as the base
of an upper level trough axis moves into the Four Corners and the
speed max aloft strengthens to around 125kt over central NM. Flow
aloft will also veer from southwest to west with cold air advection
allowing snow levels to fall from west to east thru late afternoon.
The heavier snow accums will begin to focus on west-facing slopes
and ridges, which will enhance rates in the Sangre de Cristo Mts
thru late Friday. Snow type will transition more to a drier, fluffy
snow with increased snow-water ratios. The 07Z NBM and 00Z HREF 25th
percentile snow accums are >10" above 8,000ft and >20" above 9,500ft
in the San Juan/Tusas Mts by Friday evening. Even the low resolution
LREF 25th percentile has >12" in the San Juan/Tusas Mts. Given the
higher 50th percentile amounts are the expected amount, confidence
is high enough to upgrade the Winter Storm Watches to warnings. The
NBM probability for >10" also exceeds 75% for the northern mts which
is above warning criteria. Elsewhere in the lower elevations, much
needed rainfall amounts in the 0.10-0.25" are expected for the north
and west thru Friday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025

Good model consistency is evident Fri night in the deterministic
and latest cluster analysis as the main trough axis traverses the
CWFA. Meanwhile, a backdoor front will migrate southward through
the ern plains of CO and eventually into northeast NM by 12Z/Sat.
Cold air advection will prevail with 700mb readings dropping into
the -7C to -4C range, north-south respectively. While the coverage
and intensity of snow starts to wane as orographic lift weakens
and deeper moisture departs, additional light/moderate snow will
continue in the northern mtns with snow levels reaching the lower
elevations, especially across northern and western NM. While snow
accumulations along the Interstate 40 and Highway 550 corridors
will be minimal, this may still result in a period of slick road
conditions. Winds aloft will gradually relax and shift southward
towards southern NM for Friday night. With that said, there will
still be a concern for blowing snow, particularly over the higher
elevations.

Lingering energy embedded in northwest flow will keep a risk for
snow showers in the forecast on Sat in the northern mountains and
northeast plains. Below normal temps are expected but it will feel
even colder as brisk northwest winds are favored compliments of a
40-45kt 700mb speed max, generally oriented along a line from the
northwest plateau to the central zones and south central mts.

Northwest flow aloft persists on Sun transitioning to zonal flow
for Mon. This will allow temperatures to recover notably, or 5 to
15 degrees above mid-Feb normals. Another upper level disturbance
in the PacNW will race towards the northern/central Rockies late
Sun through Tue. As this occurs, another arctic front will invade
the ern plains of NM. Residence time of this system should limit
significant snowfall accumulations, which appear to be favored in
the northern mountains and northeast NM. While this is Day 6-7 in
the forecast, there is surprisingly a higher degree of consistency
in the ensemble guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025

Low clouds and MVFR conditions are currently breaking up across
the east central and southeast plains with some high clouds
streaming across southeast NM this afternoon. Some gusty south to
southwest winds across northeast and east central NM due to a lee
surface trough. A lowering mid level cloud deck will move into
western and central NM this afternoon and evening ahead of a
potent Pacific storm. Rain and mountain snow and associated MVFR
visibilities and ceilings will develop across western and north
central NM late this evening increasing in coverage overnight into
tomorrow morning. Mountain obscurations with IFR to MVFR
conditions will be in full effect come daybreak. Additionally,
south and southwest winds will increase across the mountains and
highlands due to increasing mid and upper level winds ahead of the
system and across the northeast and east central plains due to a
low level jet. Some gusts of 25 to 35 kts possible. The Pacific
front looks to enter western NM in the last few hours of the TAF
period allowing southwest winds to turn westerly and increase
further. Rain will likely quickly change to snow at KGUP right at
the end of the TAF period. Strong south and southwest winds will
move down to lower elevations areawide right at the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025

Very dry conditions over the area with locally breezy southwest
winds this afternoon may lead to marginally critical fire weather
for a few hours over the highlands of eastern NM, mainly near Las
Vegas. A weather system entering the region tonight will bring
widespread rain and snow tonight thru Friday night. Snow levels
will remain above 8,000ft tonight then fall to near 6,000ft Friday
night as colder air enters the region. Heavy snow accums are very
likely on southwest-facing slopes and ridges of the northern mts.
Heavier wet snow thru Friday will transition to a drier, fluffy
snow Friday night and Saturday in the high terrain. Snowfall
totals in excess of 10" are expected above 8,000ft with greater
than 20" above 9,500ft. Rainfall amounts in the lower terrain will
favor the 0.10-0.25" range across the north and west. Strong
southwest winds will occur Friday over the high terrain and
northeast NM Friday followed by strong northwest winds areawide
Saturday. Drier air returns Sunday and Monday followed by another
potential storm system for the middle of next week. Marginally
critical fire weather may develop across the high plains between
these two weather systems early next week before a much colder
airmass returns to eastern NM by midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  50  35  45  27 /   5  90 100  80
Dulce...........................  45  26  39  17 /   0 100 100  80
Cuba............................  45  29  43  23 /   0  70  90  90
Gallup..........................  52  30  44  19 /  10  80  90  90
El Morro........................  50  32  43  26 /   0  60  90  90
Grants..........................  54  31  48  21 /   0  50  80  70
Quemado.........................  53  34  48  24 /   5  30  80  70
Magdalena.......................  53  38  54  30 /   0  10  40  50
Datil...........................  52  35  48  27 /   0  10  50  60
Reserve.........................  56  30  50  16 /   5  30  70  80
Glenwood........................  60  38  54  27 /  10  30  70  80
Chama...........................  39  24  34  17 /   0 100 100  80
Los Alamos......................  46  32  42  28 /   0  70  90  60
Pecos...........................  45  30  45  26 /   0  60  80  60
Cerro/Questa....................  40  26  36  21 /   0  70  90  50
Red River.......................  37  26  32  18 /   0  70  90  60
Angel Fire......................  38  26  36  18 /   0  60  80  60
Taos............................  44  25  38  20 /   0  70  80  50
Mora............................  49  27  47  23 /   0  50  70  50
Espanola........................  51  30  49  26 /   0  70  90  40
Santa Fe........................  45  30  45  27 /   0  70  90  70
Santa Fe Airport................  48  32  48  26 /   0  70  80  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  53  36  54  35 /   0  50  80  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  39  56  31 /   0  40  70  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  38  58  29 /   0  30  70  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  53  38  56  31 /   0  40  70  50
Belen...........................  58  36  62  28 /   0  20  50  50
Bernalillo......................  54  38  55  31 /   0  40  80  50
Bosque Farms....................  56  37  60  28 /   0  20  60  50
Corrales........................  54  38  56  31 /   0  40  70  50
Los Lunas.......................  56  37  60  29 /   0  20  60  50
Placitas........................  52  35  52  33 /   0  50  80  60
Rio Rancho......................  53  38  56  31 /   0  40  70  50
Socorro.........................  60  39  65  32 /   0  10  30  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  47  33  46  29 /   0  50  80  70
Tijeras.........................  50  37  49  30 /   0  50  80  60
Edgewood........................  50  33  51  26 /   0  40  70  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  31  55  22 /   0  40  60  50
Clines Corners..................  47  32  51  26 /   0  30  50  50
Mountainair.....................  51  35  54  27 /   0  20  40  50
Gran Quivira....................  50  35  56  27 /   0  10  30  50
Carrizozo.......................  54  38  57  30 /   0   0  10  50
Ruidoso.........................  49  37  52  30 /   0   5  10  50
Capulin.........................  40  26  52  21 /   0   5  10  30
Raton...........................  44  24  55  21 /   0  20  30  30
Springer........................  48  27  57  22 /   0  20  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  48  30  51  25 /   0  30  50  40
Clayton.........................  41  28  60  25 /   0   0   0  20
Roy.............................  43  27  57  25 /   0   5  10  10
Conchas.........................  52  31  65  30 /   0   5  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  51  29  64  33 /   0   5  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  50  31  64  31 /   0   0   5  10
Clovis..........................  46  28  63  35 /   0   0   0   5
Portales........................  47  27  65  35 /   0   0   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  49  28  64  34 /   0   0   5  10
Roswell.........................  48  30  72  41 /   0   0   0  10
Picacho.........................  51  32  65  34 /   0   0   0  30
Elk.............................  55  34  62  32 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Saturday
for NMZ202-203-210-211-213-214.

&&

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...71