Severe Thunderstorm Warning 486, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
209 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1259 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025

- A storm system will draw subtropical moisture northward over
  northern and central New Mexico with scattered to numerous
  showers and thunderstorms through Sunday, then some lingering
  showers and thunderstorms with lighter precip along and east of
  the continental divide on Monday.

- Additional rain amounts from the central high plains to the
  continental divide and Four Corners area should reach around
  0.10 to 0.60 of an inch, with locally higher amounts over an
  inch along and just east of the central and south central
  mountains, and lighter amounts elsewhere.

- There will be an ongoing flash flood threat below the burn scars
  in the Ruidoso area until 9 PM Sunday evening.

- After a cool start to the coming week, dry and warmer conditions
  are expected Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025

An upper level low pressure system stalled over the CA/AZ border
will continue to draw subtropical moisture northward across the
forecast area with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
tonight through Monday. Additional rain amounts around 0.10-0.60"
should be common from the central high plains westward to the
continental divide and the Four Corners, with lighter amounts
elsewhere. Locally higher amounts over an inch will be possible,
especially along the central and south central mountains, as well
as their adjacent east slopes. There should be a lot of cloud
cover on Sunday, so we forecast high temperatures a few degrees
below NBM guidance; especially over central parts of the forecast
area. Will continue the ongoing Flash Flood Watch for the Ruidoso
area burn scars until 9 PM Sunday. The risk of heavy rainfall will
decrease areawide thereafter as the upper low opens into a trough
and exits gradually eastward across the forecast area with drier
air entering from the west. Monday will bring a little more
sunshine and a noticeable downtick in shower and thunderstorm
coverage, with most of the activity favoring the continental
divide to the east slopes of the central mountain chain. There may
be some patchy fog along the east slopes of the central mountain
chain early Sunday morning, then the coverage of fog and low
clouds will probably increase across central parts of the forecast
area late Sunday night until mid morning Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025

There is a good chance that some patchy fog will return to central
parts of the forecast area late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
During the middle of next week, a ridge of high pressure will
build northward over New Mexico causing high temperatures to
climb as much as 11 degrees above 30-year averages by Thursday.
Southwest winds will probably become gusty on Friday as an upper
level trough deepens over the southwest US.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms will
continue today through Sunday evening. Extensive cloud cover has
stabilized the atmosphere enough to limit the number of embedded
thunderstorms so far today, but storm coverage will likely
increase this afternoon and continue into the evening. A few
storms should be capable of producing erratic wet microburst wind
gusts up to 45 KT. Late tonight into Sunday morning, high res
models depict a fairly persistent stream of rain showers in the
vicinity of the central mountain chain. Easterly upslope flow will
probably also produce areas of MVFR conditions in low clouds, and
perhaps some patchy fog, early Sunday morning east of the central
mountain chain (not as far east as the TX border).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Wetting precip will probably be pretty spotty over the far eastern
plains with the passing storm system this weekend. Dry air will
filter over the state in the wake of the storm system as a ridge
of high pressure builds northward over NM midweek, but minimum
humidities are forecast to remain above 15 percent areawide.
Southwest wind gusts may reach the 15-25 mph range on Friday
afternoon, especially over the mountains and northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  73  53  73 /  70  60  40   5
Dulce...........................  42  67  42  70 /  70  70  60  40
Cuba............................  46  65  45  68 /  70  80  70  50
Gallup..........................  45  70  42  71 /  50  50  30   0
El Morro........................  45  67  42  68 /  60  60  50  20
Grants..........................  46  68  44  71 /  70  80  60  30
Quemado.........................  45  71  42  71 /  30  50  30  10
Magdalena.......................  50  66  50  68 /  60  80  60  50
Datil...........................  46  66  45  68 /  50  70  40  30
Reserve.........................  45  75  44  77 /  30  30  20  10
Glenwood........................  50  79  49  80 /  40  20  10  10
Chama...........................  42  63  40  65 /  60  80  50  60
Los Alamos......................  51  62  49  66 /  60  80  70  60
Pecos...........................  48  61  45  66 /  70  80  70  50
Cerro/Questa....................  46  66  44  68 /  40  60  30  40
Red River.......................  38  57  37  59 /  40  70  30  50
Angel Fire......................  34  60  32  63 /  30  70  30  50
Taos............................  45  68  43  70 /  40  70  40  40
Mora............................  43  61  40  65 /  50  80  50  60
Espanola........................  52  70  50  74 /  60  80  60  40
Santa Fe........................  52  63  49  68 /  70  80  70  50
Santa Fe Airport................  50  66  48  70 /  60  80  70  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  58  70  55  72 /  80  90  80  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  55  72  55  74 /  70  80  70  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  74  55  76 /  70  80  70  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  57  71  55  75 /  70  80  70  30
Belen...........................  53  73  53  76 /  70  80  70  30
Bernalillo......................  55  72  54  76 /  70  80  80  30
Bosque Farms....................  53  73  52  76 /  70  80  70  30
Corrales........................  55  73  55  76 /  70  80  80  30
Los Lunas.......................  54  73  53  76 /  70  80  70  30
Placitas........................  54  67  52  71 /  70  80  80  40
Rio Rancho......................  55  71  54  75 /  70  80  80  30
Socorro.........................  56  74  55  77 /  70  70  60  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  63  48  68 /  70  90  80  50
Tijeras.........................  51  65  49  69 /  70  90  80  50
Edgewood........................  47  64  46  69 /  70  80  80  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  47  65  45  70 /  80  90  70  50
Clines Corners..................  48  61  46  66 /  70  80  70  50
Mountainair.....................  49  65  48  69 /  70  80  70  60
Gran Quivira....................  49  65  48  69 /  70  80  70  60
Carrizozo.......................  55  68  53  71 /  70  90  70  60
Ruidoso.........................  50  59  48  64 /  70  90  70  70
Capulin.........................  48  67  46  68 /  20  20   5  20
Raton...........................  47  69  45  71 /  30  40  10  30
Springer........................  50  69  46  73 /  30  50  10  30
Las Vegas.......................  48  61  45  67 /  60  80  50  50
Clayton.........................  55  76  53  75 /  20  10   0   5
Roy.............................  52  68  50  70 /  30  50  20  30
Conchas.........................  57  73  55  77 /  40  50  30  20
Santa Rosa......................  54  68  53  73 /  60  70  50  30
Tucumcari.......................  55  75  53  76 /  30  30  10  10
Clovis..........................  58  79  56  78 /  30  20  10  10
Portales........................  59  79  57  78 /  30  20  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  58  72  56  76 /  50  50  30  20
Roswell.........................  60  71  58  78 /  50  60  30  20
Picacho.........................  55  69  53  73 /  60  80  50  50
Elk.............................  51  66  50  70 /  60  90  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday evening for NMZ226.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
307 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025

NMZ201-205-206-272130-
Northwest Plateau NM-West Central Mountains NM-West Central
Plateau NM-
307 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MCKINLEY COUNTY
UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

At 307 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Brimhall Nizhoni, or 13 miles north of Gallup,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Brimhall Nizhoni, Tohatchi, Coyote Canyon and Twin Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3563 10870 3571 10880 3591 10867 3575 10840
      3557 10863
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 213DEG 11KT 3571 10868

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

11