Severe Thunderstorm Warning 447, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
212 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 159 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

- Isolated showers and storms the western and central high terrain
  and eastern plains this afternoon and evening may produce strong
  outflow wind gusts and small to medium sized hail.

- Storm chances increase in coverage Wednesday through Friday,
  with the highest rainfall expected in the northwest. Strong to
  severe storms may produce gusty outflow winds and large hail.
  There will be a low risk of flash flooding in western and
  northern areas as well.

- Drier weather across western and central New Mexico Saturday
  with scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage along and east
  of the central mountain chain. Storm chances will likely trend
  up again early next week (moderate confidence).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

Convection has been quick to start today despite the building ridge
overhead. Models have struggled with storm initialization and
therefore will likely struggle with storm evolution through the rest
of the afternoon and evening. This morning's 18Z sounding at KABQ
shows higher moisture to this time compared to yesterday and and
an already deep boundary layer (up to nearly 500mb). As the sfc
warms, DCAPE will only continue to increase, suggesting the HREF
mean of 1500 j/kg of DCAPE for Albuquerque may be on the low side.
This means that seemingly weak showers and storms will have the
potential to produce very strong wind gusts this afternoon.
Instability is much higher in the eastern plains where there is a
low chance of damaging wind gusts and large hail with storms that
develop. Shear is better north of I-40, but even pulsy storms that
move off the Sacramento mountains into the southeast plains have
the potential to produce very strong winds and localized blowing
dust given the combination of steep low-level lapse rates and dry
soils in the Pecos River Valley. A batch of gusty showers and
storms is progged to move into the Rio Grande Valley late evening,
but conditions should clear after Midnight around the whole
region.

The center of the H5 ridge will move northward into the TX Panhandle
tomorrow afternoon at the same time that a trough digs into The
Great Basin. A plume of mid-level moisture will be advected in-
between the two focusing showers and storms over the western high
terrain tomorrow. A light southerly breeze will develop in most
areas and high based showers will mix down even stronger wind gusts
as they quickly move from south to north. Models disagree on whether
storms will develop along and east of the central mountain chain
given dry air advection from the southeast and greater subsidence
from the ridge aloft. That being said, hi-res models such as the
HRRR and RRFS are showing scattered storms along and the central
mountain chain, with these storms trekking northeast through the
afternoon so storm chances were at least mentioned in the forecast
for these areas. Given the forcing aloft, storms will be less
diurnally driven than past days and may persist past Midnight in
north-central and northwestern NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

Sub-tropical moisture will continue streaming in from the south late
week as a trough over The Great Basin slowly digs southeast. The
plume of moisture will be quite concentrated across the northwest,
but heavier rainfall rates may actually occur outside of this area
where warmer temps allow for higher instability. While there is a
low risk of flash flooding because of the moisture surge, very fast
storm motions (25-35kts) should limit the duration of heavy
rainfall. This can also be illustrated by high-end (90th percentile)
rainfall amounts which only show 1-2" over the high terrain of the
Tusas and Jemez mountains. It should be noted that precipitation
will be less diurnally driven than the past couple of months due to
the forcing aloft driving much of the precipitation. Rain rates will
likely peak during the afternoon hours, but showers and storms could
linger through the night both Thursday and Friday.

The bigger threat will likely be strong to severe storms during
the Thursday/Friday time period given bulk shear of 30-50kts over
the Four Corners. Both instability and low-level moisture will be
limiting factors for supercell development so these will be the
variables to watch in the coming days. An early season Pacific
front will dry the region out from west to east on Monday, but its
timing remains a big question mark due to strong disagreement
between the EPS and the GEFS. The EPS continues to favor a deeper
and faster-moving trough with storms confined to eastern NM on
Saturday while the GEFS solution would keep enough moisture around
central and western areas for additional storms on Saturday
afternoon.

The weekend dry air intrusion will be short-lived however as
increasingly active westerlies look to draw more suptropical
moisture into New Mexico early next week. Both the GEFS and EPS
ensemble mean PWATs show above normal moisture across all of
central and northern New Mexico by Tuesday of next week so the
pattern should continue to remain active.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will favor areas from the
Continental Divide eastward this afternoon and evening. A few
storms may intensify near the TX border, but gusty outflow winds
to 35kts are possible with any showers and storms around the area.
A batch of showers and storms will likely move into the RGV
between 00Z and 06Z this evening, creating gusty and erratic
outflow winds, however confidence in exact location/timing of
showers and storms today is low.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7
days. Isolated to scattered showers and storms today and tomorrow
will favor areas from the Continental Divide eastward, then storm
activity increases across the west Thursday and Friday, with the
highest coverage in the Four Corners region. Widespread wetting
rainfall is likely in western and central NM, with more spotty
coverage in the east. Strong wind gusts and hail will be a threat
Thursday and moreso Friday in the west with stronger storms that
develop. A southerly breeze with prevail around the region
Wednesday through Friday, with more intermittent gusty winds at
times when showers and storms mix down stronger winds aloft. After
a brief decrease in storm chances next weekend, rain chances
trend up again early next week as moisture surges back into the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  60  87  60  82 /   5  40  50  50
Dulce...........................  45  82  47  78 /  10  40  50  60
Cuba............................  54  82  54  78 /  20  30  30  50
Gallup..........................  52  85  52  81 /  10  30  20  30
El Morro........................  52  81  53  78 /  20  40  30  50
Grants..........................  52  84  53  81 /  20  40  30  50
Quemado.........................  53  83  53  80 /  10  20  20  20
Magdalena.......................  59  84  59  82 /  10  10  20  20
Datil...........................  53  81  54  78 /  10  20  20  30
Reserve.........................  54  88  53  84 /   5  10  20  10
Glenwood........................  59  92  58  88 /   5  10  20  20
Chama...........................  47  76  47  72 /  20  40  40  60
Los Alamos......................  57  80  57  78 /  20  20  20  30
Pecos...........................  54  81  54  78 /  20  20  30  10
Cerro/Questa....................  52  80  52  77 /  10  20  20  20
Red River.......................  44  70  45  68 /  10  30  30  20
Angel Fire......................  39  74  40  72 /  20  30  30  20
Taos............................  50  83  51  79 /  20  20  30  20
Mora............................  49  79  49  76 /  20  30  30  20
Espanola........................  56  87  57  85 /  20  20  20  20
Santa Fe........................  58  82  58  80 /  20  20  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  56  85  57  83 /  20  20  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  89  66  87 /  20  10  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  91  64  89 /  20  10  20  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  93  63  90 /  20  10  20  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  91  65  89 /  20  10  20  10
Belen...........................  60  92  60  90 /  20  10  10  10
Bernalillo......................  62  92  63  90 /  20  10  20  10
Bosque Farms....................  59  92  60  90 /  20  10  20  10
Corrales........................  63  92  63  90 /  20  10  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  60  92  61  90 /  20  10  20  10
Placitas........................  62  87  62  86 /  20  20  20  10
Rio Rancho......................  63  91  63  89 /  20  10  20  10
Socorro.........................  63  95  63  91 /  10  10  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  83  57  82 /  20  10  20  10
Tijeras.........................  59  85  59  83 /  20  10  20  10
Edgewood........................  54  85  55  84 /  20  20  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  87  52  85 /  20  20  20  10
Clines Corners..................  56  82  55  80 /  20  20  20   5
Mountainair.....................  56  85  57  83 /  20  20  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  56  85  56  83 /  20  20  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  61  87  61  85 /  10  20  20   5
Ruidoso.........................  57  79  55  78 /  10  20  20   5
Capulin.........................  52  82  55  80 /  10  20  30   0
Raton...........................  50  85  52  82 /  10  30  30   5
Springer........................  50  87  53  85 /  20  30  30   0
Las Vegas.......................  52  82  52  80 /  20  30  30  10
Clayton.........................  60  90  62  87 /  10  10  20   0
Roy.............................  56  86  57  83 /  10  20  30   0
Conchas.........................  61  92  62  89 /  10  20  20   0
Santa Rosa......................  57  88  58  86 /  10  20  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  60  90  60  89 /  20  10  20   0
Clovis..........................  62  92  60  91 /  20  10  20   0
Portales........................  62  93  60  91 /  20  10  20   0
Fort Sumner.....................  61  92  60  89 /  20  10  20   0
Roswell.........................  64  94  63  92 /  20  10  10   0
Picacho.........................  58  90  56  87 /  20  20  10   0
Elk.............................  57  87  55  85 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16