Severe Thunderstorm Warning 413, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
549 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms east of the central
  mountain chain this afternoon and evening.

- Moderate to high risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars
  today and Tuesday, then moderate on Wednesday.

- Scattered virga showers and isolated dry thunderstorms will be
  capable of producing strong to erratic wind gusts of 40 to 50
  mph over portions of west central and central NM this
  afternoon.

- After decreasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
  and Thursday, storm coverage will increase over central and
  western areas again at the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

As an upper level trough and accompanying shortwave progress
eastward through NM (as shown on satellite imagery and RAP height
analysis), scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and east of the central mountain chain. A few storms
may become strong to severe this afternoon and evening, given SBCAPE
values are forecast to rise up to 2000 J/kg with 30-35kts of bulk
shear. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats with
any stronger storms. CAMs differ a bit on initiation location and
timing, but are in agreement on a cluster of thunderstorms forming
across far eastern NM by late afternoon to mid evening, which may
increase a wind threat if this cluster can become an organized line.
Alongside of strong to severe thunderstorms, heavy rainfall is
likely in any storm, and slower storm motions (10-20mph) across
eastern NM may lead to localized flash flooding. Elsewhere, near the
Ruidoso area, cumulus clouds have begun to develop as of 1230pm and
isolated showers have begun to develop south near Cloudcroft. CAMs
continue to disagree whether storms will develop over or east of the
burn scars, and that has limited confidence in whether a burn scar
flash flood threat will materialize this afternoon, but with the
threat there, the current Flash Flood Watch will continue. In
western NM, PWAT values drop significantly (below 0.5"), and outside
of breezy winds and the occasional virga shower, mostly clear skies
are expected.

With the crop of storms expected in eastern NM later today, they are
very likely to push one or several outflow boundaries up against the
central mountain chain tonight. This works to create gusty gap winds
through the ABQ and Santa Fe metro areas, where gusts up to 40mph
may occur after 9pm. As the gap winds and boundaries work to push
moisture further west, this sets the stage for increased
precipitation chances along and west of the central mountain chain
for Tuesday. Storm motions also look to be slower and directed more
to the south. A stray strong to severe storm may occur, though shear
is noticeably weaker, inhibiting updrafts from sustaining
themselves. Rather, the slow moving nature of storms leads to
another potential round of burn scar flash flooding near the Ruidoso
area, and another Flash Flood Watch has been issued for this.
Confidence is higher for storms forming near the burn scars given
moisture will have wrapped around the Sacramento Mountains.
Elsewhere, the HPCC scar and off-scar locations have a low chance
for localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Throughout Wednesday and the rest of the work week, the upper level
high that had shifted over to CA this past weekend now works its way
back through NM. It is likely to be weaker than when it gave us very
hot temperatures, and will also not completely eliminate our
moisture. Thus, afternoon rounds of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are likely across the high terrain. Chances for
precipitation are slightly higher across the Gila Region given
embedded disturbances circling the high interacting with slightly
higher moisture content. As we progress in the weekend, models and
ensembles have been keen on developing a broad trough to our west
and a high to our east, allowing a more traditional monsoon plume to
cover NM. The highest precipitation chances are currently painted
for Friday, given that the approaching trough is forecast to have a
shortwave progressing through its axis, giving additional support
for synoptic scale lift. This should also increase storm motions,
limiting flash flooding to only the heaviest of storms. There may be
a risk of training and/or multiple rounds of storms, but confidence
is not high to definitively say. Afternoon thunderstorms are likely
to continue into and through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to push into
eastern New Mexico with some strong to severe cells producing
damaging downburst winds, large hail, and heavy downpours through
the early evening. Storms should mostly die off by 12/0400UTC.
Strong and gusty east canyon winds will develop in vulnerable
central areas of New Mexico, including at KSAF and KABQ. Gusts
will exceed 35kt at KABQ, so an Airport Weather Warning has been
issued through 12/1000UTC. These east winds will send moisture
farther west, so storms will favor more central areas of the state
going into Tuesday afternoon. Scattered to numerous slow-moving
heavy downpours are expected Tuesday between the Continental
Divide and the central mountain chain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Elevated fire weather are likely through this afternoon and early
evening across western NM due to a combination of low teen to single
digit humidity and breezy winds. After today, elevated to critical
fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days.
Moisture seeps through the central mountain chain tonight, resulting
in a gusty gap wind up to 35kts. This moisture continues to move
westward throughout the week, raising humidity values across western
NM. Winds remain light, and the chances for wetting rainfall in
western NM increases as the week progresses, especially Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  93  65  95 /   0   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  46  88  46  91 /   0  30  10  20
Cuba............................  53  85  54  88 /   0  40  10  20
Gallup..........................  48  91  52  92 /   0  10   5  10
El Morro........................  53  85  54  87 /   0  20  10  30
Grants..........................  52  88  54  90 /   0  30  10  30
Quemado.........................  54  88  56  88 /   0  30  20  50
Magdalena.......................  57  86  59  86 /  10  50  20  40
Datil...........................  53  83  53  84 /   0  50  20  50
Reserve.........................  51  94  51  93 /   5  40  20  70
Glenwood........................  58  97  56  95 /  10  50  20  70
Chama...........................  46  80  46  83 /   5  50  20  40
Los Alamos......................  57  81  57  84 /  10  60  20  40
Pecos...........................  53  79  53  83 /  30  60  30  40
Cerro/Questa....................  51  81  51  84 /  20  60  20  40
Red River.......................  42  69  43  75 /  20  60  10  40
Angel Fire......................  36  72  37  77 /  30  60  10  40
Taos............................  50  83  49  86 /  20  50  10  30
Mora............................  48  74  47  80 /  40  60  20  40
Espanola........................  55  89  56  93 /  20  50  20  30
Santa Fe........................  57  82  57  85 /  20  50  20  30
Santa Fe Airport................  56  86  56  89 /  20  40  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  90  65  91 /  10  40  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  92  62  93 /  10  30  20  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  94  62  95 /  10  30  20  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  91  62  93 /  10  30  20  10
Belen...........................  59  93  59  95 /  10  30  20  10
Bernalillo......................  61  92  61  94 /  10  30  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  59  93  58  94 /  10  30  20  10
Corrales........................  62  93  62  95 /  10  30  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  60  93  60  94 /  10  30  20  10
Placitas........................  61  88  61  90 /  10  40  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  62  92  62  94 /  10  30  20  20
Socorro.........................  63  95  62  95 /  10  40  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  55  83  56  86 /  10  40  20  20
Tijeras.........................  57  85  58  87 /  10  40  20  20
Edgewood........................  51  84  52  87 /  10  40  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  85  51  88 /  10  40  20  20
Clines Corners..................  53  78  55  82 /  20  40  20  20
Mountainair.....................  54  83  54  85 /  20  40  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  53  83  55  84 /  20  50  30  30
Carrizozo.......................  59  86  60  88 /  30  50  30  30
Ruidoso.........................  54  77  55  79 /  30  70  30  50
Capulin.........................  50  76  52  82 /  40  20  10  20
Raton...........................  49  80  50  86 /  30  30  10  20
Springer........................  51  82  52  88 /  40  30  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  51  78  52  84 /  40  50  20  30
Clayton.........................  58  83  59  88 /  50  10   5   0
Roy.............................  54  81  56  85 /  50  30  20  10
Conchas.........................  59  87  61  93 /  60  20  20  10
Santa Rosa......................  56  83  58  89 /  50  30  30  10
Tucumcari.......................  58  84  60  90 /  70  10  20   0
Clovis..........................  61  88  63  93 /  80  20  30  10
Portales........................  61  88  63  93 /  80  30  40  10
Fort Sumner.....................  61  88  62  92 /  60  20  30  10
Roswell.........................  66  93  67  95 /  40  30  30  10
Picacho.........................  58  85  60  89 /  30  50  30  30
Elk.............................  55  82  57  85 /  30  60  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for
NMZ226.

&&

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...52

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