Severe Thunderstorm Warning 367, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
111 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 109 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

- The monsoon moisture plume will remain over the area through
  today with locally heavy rainfall resulting in a flash flood
  risk, especially around burn scars, urban areas, locales with
  saturated ground, and poorly drained areas.

- Severe thunderstorms will favor the northeast quadrant of New
  Mexico on Friday and Saturday, mainly during the afternoon and
  early evening hours. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
  the main hazards.

- Daytime temperatures will increase for the early to middle
  portion of next week. There is high confidence in widespread
  moderate to locally major heat risk impacts, particularly for
  individuals without adequate cooling and hydration.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Another afternoon of scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms is expected across the area today, focused mainly on
southwest and northeast NM. The 500mb high pressure has shifted
slightly westward, centered over the AZ/Mexico border. This
continues to provide slow storm motions across the area, with the
potential for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding. A Flash
Flood Watch remains in effect for the Gila Region and South Central
Mountains, including Ruidoso, for these slow moving thunderstorms.
Activity in this area should begin to taper off after 6-7pm tonight.
Across the northern periphery of the upper high, a shortwave treks
across and clips northern and northeast NM, providing additional
lift and increasing the bulk shear across the area. In response to
this, thunderstorms initiating off of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
and across northeast NM have the chance to turn severe, with large
hail and damaging wind gusts as the primary threats. This region is
outlined by the Day 1 Marginal risk of severe weather by the SPC.
Additionally, while storm motion is likely to be faster than the
storms in the southern part of the state, soils are very saturated
after consistent wetting rainfall across the northeast, and it
will not take much rainfall to produce flooding concerns.
Therefore, a Flash Flood Watch also remains in effect for much of
northeast NM, where a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall has been
issued by the WPC. A broken to solid line of storms is expected to
continue traveling southeast across eastern NM, where SBCAPE up
to 1000 J/kg and bulk shear around 30kt should allow for a
continued threat of damaging winds and large hail into the early
evening hours, before diminishing around and/or south of the I-40
corridor by midnight.

The upper high begins to migrate slightly towards NM on Saturday,
with once again another round of scattered thunderstorms across the
high terrain. Coverage is likely to be lower given a lowering of
PWAT values and the high beginning to move over the state. An
increase in instability and bulk shear appears favorable across far
northeastern NM Saturday afternoon, sprouting another risk of severe
thunderstorms for the area. Confidence is a bit lower in this
occurring in the state though, as most guidance is keeping the more
favorable parameters within the TX Panhandle, where a slight risk of
severe weather exists. Elsewhere, a minor flash flood risk remains
with any slow moving thunderstorm, but current trends show that
coverage and amounts should be low enough to forego a Flash Flood
Watch.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

The hazards across the state quickly shift from flooding in the
short term to heat risk in the long term. The high pressure begins
to shift itself directly over NM by Sunday and continuing to park
itself there throughout the bulk of next week. Temperatures begin to
jump up significantly on Sunday, with several low elevation
locations seeing high 90s and low 100s, with the potential for mid
100s in Roswell. A light backdoor cold front provides slight relief
to eastern NM on Monday before the upper high reinforces itself.
Most guidance is suggesting that the high reaches 600dm by mid-week,
which may set daily records, especially if recorded by upper air
soundings from ABQ. In addition, GFS forecast PWATs drop to under
0.3" by Monday, which would be a daily record minimum PWAT for the
00z sounding. Needless to say, a dry regime is making its way into
the state.

Because of that, widespread moderate to major risk of heat related
impacts is likely to begin Sunday and continue throughout the bulk
of next week. Sunday and Monday are likely to be focused across the
Rio Grande Valley and southeast NM, including Albuquerque and
Roswell, before spreading to much of the state as a continued
stretch of hot temperatures with warm low temperatures bring about
potential heat impacts. Folks should continue to stay hydrated, take
breaks if working outside, and avoid long, direct exposure to the
sun. Outside of the temperatures, isolated to scattered storms may
begin to develop across the western and northern high terrain as
monsoon moisture seeps into the state from a plume over AZ. Given
the expected strength of the high, these storms are likely to be
short-lived with only isolated areas of heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are continuing to
develop again this afternoon. Storms are most likely to keep
developing across the high terrain, then move off to lower elevation
areas. Short-lived MVFR conditions are likely from any direct hit of
a thunderstorm to a TAF site, with highest confidence at KLVS and
KTCC. Gusty winds, hail, and torrential rainfall are likely from any
thunderstorms. A few storms across northeast NM may turn severe with
large hail and damaging wind gusts, mostly affecting KRTN and KCAO,
but perhaps as far south as KTCC. Elsewhere, gusty winds from
surrounding showers are possible at KGUP through the afternoon. As
thunderstorms move southeast across eastern NM after 03z tonight,
there is a low chance of showers making it as far south as KROW
based on model and MOS guidance. With that, introduced a PROB30
after 06z tonight. A quiet night expected after 12z across the
area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

No critical fire weather conditions are expected throughout the next
several days, though several areas of elevated fire weather
conditions are likely. A significant drying trend is expected to
begin Saturday before fully materializing Sunday. Humidity values
plummet into the low teens and single digits across a majority of
the state Sunday. Of note are several hours of single digit
humidity, with locations across Fire Weather Zone 101 (Farmington
area) potential experiencing upwards of 13 to 18 hours of single
digit humidity on Sunday and Monday respectively. Additionally,
poor to at best fair humidity recoveries are expected overnight
through the first several days of this dry stretch. Some
thunderstorms are possible across the high terrain getting into
the middle of next week, but given very dry air at the surface,
dry thunderstorms are a threat and new fire starts may occur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  64  95  59  94 /  10   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  49  88  46  89 /  20  10   5   0
Cuba............................  56  88  56  89 /  30  10  10   0
Gallup..........................  53  91  52  92 /  20   5   0   0
El Morro........................  55  87  54  88 /  30  10   5   0
Grants..........................  57  90  55  92 /  30  10   5   0
Quemado.........................  58  87  57  90 /  30  20  10   0
Magdalena.......................  62  87  63  92 /  40  30  10   0
Datil...........................  57  85  57  89 /  30  30  10   0
Reserve.........................  56  92  55  95 /  20  30   5   0
Glenwood........................  61  97  61  99 /  30  20   5   0
Chama...........................  48  81  48  83 /  20  20   5   0
Los Alamos......................  57  84  60  87 /  30  20  10   0
Pecos...........................  55  85  56  87 /  30  20  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  53  82  53  84 /  30  30  10   0
Red River.......................  44  73  45  76 /  30  30  10   5
Angel Fire......................  40  77  40  79 /  30  30  10   5
Taos............................  51  85  51  88 /  30  20   5   0
Mora............................  49  81  50  83 /  40  30  10   5
Espanola........................  58  91  59  94 /  30  10   5   0
Santa Fe........................  59  86  60  89 /  30  10  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  57  89  59  92 /  30  10  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  92  68  95 /  40  10  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  93  66  97 /  30  10  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  96  65  99 /  30  10  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  94  66  97 /  30  10  10   0
Belen...........................  63  95  63 100 /  30  10  10   0
Bernalillo......................  63  94  65  97 /  30  10  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  62  95  62  99 /  30  10  10   0
Corrales........................  65  95  66  98 /  30  10  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  64  95  64  99 /  30  10  10   0
Placitas........................  62  91  64  94 /  40  10  10   0
Rio Rancho......................  65  94  66  97 /  30  10  10   0
Socorro.........................  66  96  66 101 /  30  10  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  86  59  90 /  40  10  10   0
Tijeras.........................  60  88  61  91 /  30  10  10   0
Edgewood........................  54  88  56  91 /  30  10  10   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  89  53  92 /  40  10  10   0
Clines Corners..................  55  84  56  86 /  40   5  10   0
Mountainair.....................  57  87  59  90 /  30  10  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  57  87  59  90 /  30  10  10   0
Carrizozo.......................  63  89  66  93 /  20  20   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  56  81  59  85 /  10  30   5   5
Capulin.........................  50  82  52  84 /  70  40  30  10
Raton...........................  50  86  50  88 /  50  40  20   5
Springer........................  52  88  53  91 /  60  30  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  52  84  53  87 /  40  20  10   0
Clayton.........................  59  87  59  89 /  60  20  40   5
Roy.............................  55  85  56  89 /  60  20  20   5
Conchas.........................  61  94  62  97 /  60  10  20   0
Santa Rosa......................  59  91  61  95 /  50  10  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  59  91  61  95 /  50  10  30   0
Clovis..........................  64  93  66  98 /  40   5  30   0
Portales........................  64  95  68  99 /  40  10  20   0
Fort Sumner.....................  63  94  66  99 /  40  10  10   0
Roswell.........................  69  98  71 104 /  20   5   5   0
Picacho.........................  61  91  64  96 /  20  20   5   0
Elk.............................  58  87  62  92 /  10  20   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ214-215-227>234.

Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ208-226-241.

&&

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77

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