Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1225 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1035 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

- Hazardous heat continues for the northwest plateau and
  Albuquerque Metro into Friday.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms across northeast and
  east central NM this afternoon and again Friday, with the main
  threat being damaging wind gusts.

- A backdoor front will recharge moisture and lead to an increase
  in daily rounds of storms this weekend into next week, with
  locally heavy rainfall possible. The threat for burn scar flash
  flooding will be elevated this weekend through much of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A 596dam 500mb high is centered over the northern Baja Peninsula
and extending a ridge axis over central NM, bringing drier
conditions and another day of moderate heat risk to to much of
western NM. The westerlies are intruding across northwest and
north central NM on the north side of the ridge axis and will
result in breezy/gusty conditions by mid/late afternoon given deep
layer mixing. Meanwhile across northeast NM, sufficient deep layer
shear and instability exist for a few strong to potentially severe
storms, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts into the
evening hours. Similar setup Friday, but with dry westerlies
penetrating further east into the state. A Heat Advisory is in
effect for Friday now for the Farmington area and Albuquerque
Metro, with highs forecast to reach to between 100-102 degrees.
Both 0-6km bulk shear and surface based instability are forecast
to increase slightly Friday compared to today across northeast NM
and a few strong to severe storms are more likely by afternoon,
with storms dropping southeast near the NM/TX border well into the
evening hours. The combination of a backdoor front and thunderstorm
outflow will send low level moisture west to the central mountain
chain late Friday night and result in a gusty east canyon wind
into the RGV by sunrise, though speeds are forecast to remain well
below advisory criteria at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

PWATs will get a nice bump across central NM on Saturday from
moist low level easterly flow. Saturday is looking rather active
now, with storms forecast to initiate along the Continental
Divide and central mountain chain. Northwest flow aloft will steer
storms slowly southeast into moist easterly low level inflow,
leading to an increased threat for locally heavy rainfall. In
addition, modest instability and 0-6km bulk shear will bring a
threat for strong to potentially severe storms to central NM
Saturday afternoon and evening. The flow aloft will change from
northwest on Saturday to northeast on Sunday as the upper high
drifts north from the Baja and expands, allowing an inverted
trough to move southwest into southeast NM. With plenty of
moisture in place, Sunday will be another active day and the
threat for burn scar flash flooding will be back on the uptrend
over the weekend. The inverted trough will get hung up over
eastern NM early next week as an upper high builds up along the
upper Gulf coast and balances out the upper high to our west. This
setup will allow for continued good chances for thunderstorms and
soaking rains given slow and erratic storm motion. Another
backdoor front will move in next Thursday and recharge moisture
for an uptrend in thunderstorms going into the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period. Winds will increase out of the west or southwest and get
gusty by mid afternoon across western and central NM. Isolated to
scattered storms moving east across the area later this afternoon
may impact KLVS initially and then go on to KTCC during the
evening hours. Strong/erratic wind gusts will be the main threat
with these storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will prevail
through Friday across northwest NM due to deep layer mixing of the
westerlies and hot daytime temperatures. Otherwise, critical fire
weather conditions are not forecast through the next seven days as
moisture increases over the weekend and brings a resurgence of
chances for wetting storms going through the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  59 100  60  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  46  93  45  90 /   0   0  10  40
Cuba............................  58  93  56  89 /   0   0   5  30
Gallup..........................  53  95  50  94 /   5   0   0   5
El Morro........................  56  91  54  91 /  10   0   0  20
Grants..........................  57  96  54  92 /   5   0   0  20
Quemado.........................  61  92  57  91 /  20   0   5  20
Magdalena.......................  68  94  63  89 /  10   5   5  40
Datil...........................  63  91  60  88 /  10   0   5  40
Reserve.........................  57  97  54  96 /  20  10  10  30
Glenwood........................  63 102  60 100 /  20  10   5  40
Chama...........................  48  86  47  82 /   0   0  10  60
Los Alamos......................  63  89  60  81 /   0  10  10  60
Pecos...........................  58  89  56  79 /  10  20  20  70
Cerro/Questa....................  54  87  52  81 /   5  20  30  70
Red River.......................  46  78  44  71 /  10  30  40  70
Angel Fire......................  40  81  40  72 /  10  30  30  70
Taos............................  50  90  52  83 /   0  20  20  60
Mora............................  52  84  49  74 /  10  30  30  70
Espanola........................  60  97  59  90 /   0   0  10  50
Santa Fe........................  63  92  60  84 /   5  10  20  60
Santa Fe Airport................  60  95  59  87 /   5  10  10  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  71  97  68  92 /  10   0  10  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  69 100  67  94 /  10   0  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  68 102  67  97 /  10   0   5  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68 100  68  94 /  10   0   5  30
Belen...........................  67 101  65  96 /  10   0   5  20
Bernalillo......................  66 101  65  95 /  10   0  10  30
Bosque Farms....................  65 101  65  96 /  10   0   5  20
Corrales........................  67 102  67  96 /  10   0   5  30
Los Lunas.......................  66 101  65  96 /  10   0   5  20
Placitas........................  67  96  65  90 /  10   0  10  40
Rio Rancho......................  67 101  67  94 /  10   0   5  30
Socorro.........................  72 104  69  98 /  10   0   5  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  91  59  86 /  10   0  10  50
Tijeras.........................  63  93  61  87 /  10   0  10  50
Edgewood........................  58  93  56  85 /  10   5  10  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  94  55  85 /  10   5  10  50
Clines Corners..................  58  87  56  76 /  20  10  10  60
Mountainair.....................  61  92  57  85 /  20   0  10  50
Gran Quivira....................  61  92  58  85 /  20   5  10  50
Carrizozo.......................  68  97  65  89 /  20  10  10  50
Ruidoso.........................  63  89  58  81 /  20  20  10  60
Capulin.........................  53  81  52  71 /  50  40  70  70
Raton...........................  53  86  53  77 /  30  40  50  70
Springer........................  54  88  55  78 /  20  40  40  70
Las Vegas.......................  54  86  52  76 /  20  30  20  70
Clayton.........................  61  90  60  78 /  60  20  60  40
Roy.............................  56  86  57  75 /  30  30  40  50
Conchas.........................  62  93  63  84 /  30  10  40  50
Santa Rosa......................  62  91  62  82 /  30  10  20  40
Tucumcari.......................  62  92  61  81 /  30   5  40  30
Clovis..........................  66  94  65  85 /  30  10  40  30
Portales........................  66  94  65  87 /  30  10  30  30
Fort Sumner.....................  66  95  65  87 /  20   5  20  20
Roswell.........................  71 100  70  92 /  20  10   5  20
Picacho.........................  66  94  63  87 /  10  20   5  40
Elk.............................  65  94  60  85 /  10  20   5  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-207-219.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Friday for NMZ201-219.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
221 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

NMZ230-102045-
Union County NM-
221 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM MDT...

At 221 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clayton, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Clayton.

This includes Highway 64 between Mile Markers 425 and 429.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3642 10330 3662 10322 3660 10300 3650 10300
      3650 10304 3634 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 282DEG 17KT 3650 10314

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

77/11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
229 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

NMZ229-232-233-102100-
Northeast Highlands NM-Eastern San Miguel County NM-Guadalupe
County NM-
229 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL GUADALUPE AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 3 PM MDT...

At 229 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southwest of Trujillo, or 25 miles southeast of Las Vegas,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mainly rural areas of North Central Guadalupe and South Central
  San Miguel Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 10502 3552 10479 3530 10451 3514 10483
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 324DEG 18KT 3539 10486

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

77/11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
233 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

NMZ228-102100-
Far Northeast Highlands NM-
233 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MORA COUNTY UNTIL
3 PM MDT...

At 233 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Wagon Mound, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mainly rural areas of Southeastern Mora County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3585 10470 3601 10469 3604 10436 3602 10436
      3601 10437 3601 10436 3586 10439 3578 10440
      3578 10447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 276DEG 14KT 3593 10461

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

77/11