Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
300 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

- A few severe storms may produce large hail and damaging wind
  gusts in northeast New Mexico today, and all of eastern NM
  Sunday.

- Showers and storms will expand to central and some western areas
  of the state Monday through Wednesday of next week. Localized
  heavy rainfall will increase the risk of flash flooding,
  particularly over recent burn scars and in urban areas. A risk
  for severe storms will continue mainly across portions of
  eastern NM as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Through the evening, a few thunderstorms will continue to develop
across far northeast NM in the vicinity of a weak boundary. Storms
will continue to form over the Raton Ridge before sliding east-
southeastward where slightly better shear (effective bulk shear
near 40kt) and higher instability (~1000-1500J/kg MLCAPE) exists.
A few supercells are expected in Colfax and Union County before
exiting into the OK and TX Panhandles. Large hail and damaging
winds are the main concerns with any storm that becomes organized.
Elsewhere, quiet conditions will be the rule through the evening.
Much like the last few nights, low clouds and patchy fog may
develop across eastern NM once again after 3am or so.

Apart from the low clouds, Sunday should be quiet through early
afternoon with quasi-zonal flow aloft. However, a backdoor cold
front is poised to enter northeast NM during the mid afternoon
hours. Storms that develop along the front will aid in pushing
the front/outflow boundary further south and west through the
evening hours. 30-40kts of 0-6km bulk shear and CAPE values up to
1500 J/kg will be sufficient for another round of severe storms
with large hail and damaging winds. One point of concern is how
widespread storms will be across eastern NM through the evening.
Latest models keep storms focused across the northeast quarter of
the state as well as right near the TX border, with little to no
activity outside of that area. Thus, confidence is low that areas
outside of northeast/far eastern NM will see severe weather and
wouldn't be surprised to see later SPC outlooks to reflect this if
trends continue.

The front will push through the gaps of the Central Mountain
Chain by early Monday morning. East winds of 20 to 25 mph with
gusts near 35 mph are expected at ABQ. Low level moisture will
also be ushered westward behind the boundary, setting the stage
for a more active Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

An approaching storm system combined with increased low level
moisture will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop across
the high terrain Monday afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall is
likely, which may pose a risk for flash flooding on the Hermits
Peak Calf Canyon burn scar. The main question for Monday is how
storms will track through the evening. Though storm motion will
generally be toward the east and southeast, outflow boundary
collisions may dictate storm propagation even more. The GFS and EC
both show a cluster of storms developing across northeast and east
central NM as they move off the high terrain and the cluster will
then continue to slide southeastward, producing gusty winds, heavy
rainfall and potentially some hail as well. However, the NAM and
CMC suggest outflows will keep most of the precipitation across
central NM - perhaps even impacting the Santa Fe and ABQ metro
areas.

Complicating matters will likely be the development of an MCV
from Monday evenings convection. This MCV may keep at least a few
showers and thunderstorms going through Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Widespread low clouds are also likely Monday night.
Nonetheless, by mid afternoon Tuesday, thunderstorms are expected
to once again erupt over the high terrain, with more storms
focused further south. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be a
concern both across HPCC as well as the burn scars surrounding
Ruidoso. Storms should generally move toward the southeast once
again as the main upper level trough crosses the area, though any
remnant MCV could throw a wrench into that.

Moisture will linger on Wednesday, with storms across the high
terrain once again. Flooding potential will depend on how much
precipitation burn scars and/or urban areas received on Mon/Tue.
Drier air moves in from the west on Thursday and Friday, with
storm coverage tapering off from west to east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

SCT-BKN MVFR clouds are slowly eroding across east central NM late
this morning. Storm coverage will decrease this afternoon in
comparison to previous days. Main concern exists across far
northeast NM where a storm or two may become severe with large
hail and damaging wind gusts. TAF sites should not be affected.
There is a low to moderate chance of MVFR cigs returning early
Sunday morning across eastern NM, to include at KTCC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Very low RH will persist across the West Central Basin and Range
(Zone 109) and the lower Rio Grande Valley (southern portions of
zone 106) for the remainder of today and again Sunday. Several
hours of single digit RH is likely. A backdoor cold front on
Sunday will press south and west, increasing low level moisture as
far west as the Continental Divide by Monday morning. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday and Tuesday, and to
a lesser extent Wednesday, with locally heavy rainfall possible.
Some storms will also contain large hail and damaging wind gusts,
particularly across eastern NM. Drier air will move in from the
west starting Thursday, limiting convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  90  55  88 /   0   0   0  10
Dulce...........................  43  83  44  82 /   0  10   0  40
Cuba............................  51  84  51  82 /   0   0   0  40
Gallup..........................  42  87  46  86 /   0   5   0  10
El Morro........................  47  83  50  82 /   0   0   0  20
Grants..........................  45  87  49  83 /   0   5   0  30
Quemado.........................  49  87  52  85 /   0   0   0  20
Magdalena.......................  56  89  57  83 /   0   0   0  40
Datil...........................  50  87  51  83 /   0   0   0  30
Reserve.........................  48  92  49  92 /   0   0   0   5
Glenwood........................  52  95  54  96 /   0   0   0   5
Chama...........................  43  77  44  75 /   0  10   5  60
Los Alamos......................  58  82  56  76 /   0   5   5  60
Pecos...........................  53  83  51  75 /   0   5  10  70
Cerro/Questa....................  48  79  48  75 /   0  20  10  80
Red River.......................  38  70  40  65 /   0  20  20  80
Angel Fire......................  33  75  35  68 /   0  20  20  80
Taos............................  44  83  47  78 /   0  10  10  70
Mora............................  47  80  47  71 /   0  20  20  80
Espanola........................  54  89  55  84 /   0   0   0  50
Santa Fe........................  56  84  55  80 /   0   5   5  60
Santa Fe Airport................  53  89  54  83 /   0   0   5  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  91  62  86 /   0   0   5  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  93  64  87 /   0   0   5  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  60  94  61  88 /   0   0   5  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  93  62  87 /   0   0   5  30
Belen...........................  58  95  59  91 /   0   0   0  20
Bernalillo......................  59  94  61  89 /   0   0   5  30
Bosque Farms....................  57  94  58  90 /   0   0   5  30
Corrales........................  60  94  61  89 /   0   0   5  30
Los Lunas.......................  58  94  59  90 /   0   0   0  20
Placitas........................  60  89  61  85 /   0   0   5  40
Rio Rancho......................  61  92  61  89 /   0   0   5  30
Socorro.........................  63  98  63  92 /   0   0   0  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  86  54  80 /   0   0   5  40
Tijeras.........................  58  87  57  83 /   0   0   5  40
Edgewood........................  52  86  53  80 /   0   0   5  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  46  88  51  81 /   0   0   5  50
Clines Corners..................  52  83  52  74 /   0   5  10  50
Mountainair.....................  53  88  53  81 /   0   0  10  40
Gran Quivira....................  53  89  53  81 /   0   0  10  40
Carrizozo.......................  60  93  58  87 /   0   0   5  30
Ruidoso.........................  57  87  52  75 /   0   0   5  50
Capulin.........................  49  79  49  69 /  20  30  40  70
Raton...........................  48  83  49  76 /  10  30  30  70
Springer........................  48  86  52  75 /   5  20  20  70
Las Vegas.......................  49  84  50  72 /   0  10  20  70
Clayton.........................  57  84  55  76 /  30  30  40  30
Roy.............................  53  85  54  74 /   5  20  20  60
Conchas.........................  59  92  59  77 /   0  20  20  50
Santa Rosa......................  57  91  58  77 /   0  10  20  50
Tucumcari.......................  59  90  58  78 /   5  20  30  30
Clovis..........................  63  93  59  76 /   5  20  30  30
Portales........................  63  95  59  78 /   0  10  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  61  94  59  80 /   0  10  20  40
Roswell.........................  65 102  65  85 /   0   0   5  20
Picacho.........................  60  97  58  84 /   0   5   5  40
Elk.............................  58  95  55  85 /   0   0   5  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34

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