Red Flag Warning 31, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1132 AM MDT Sun May 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1128 AM MDT Sun May 18 2025

- Strong winds and dry fuels will lead to critical fire weather
  today and Monday, leading to an increased risk of rapid fire
  spread. Winds will be strongest today and Monday when gusts of
  35 to 50 mph will be common, particularly for areas along the
  central mountain chain and adjacent highlands.

- Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop
  over northwestern to northern New Mexico today and Monday with
  strong, erratic downburst wind gusts possible in the afternoon
  and early evening hours.

- Temperatures will begin climbing through late week, with highs
  reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s Friday and Saturday across the
  state. The risk for heat-related illnesses may increase over
  Chaves County Friday and Saturday where highs approach 100.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM MDT Sun May 18 2025

The base of the approaching longwave trough has moved into AZ and
will continue its trek west/northwestward into western NM by the
afternoon. Strong southwest winds will develop across central and
eastern NM in response to a deepening lee-side Low in southeast CO.
The strongest winds will focus in the typical windy areas such as
the central and northeast highlands. Sustained winds will generally
be in the 25 to 35 mph range, but a few gusts upwards of 60 mph
cannot be ruled out during peak daytime mixing. The Wind Advisory
was expanded to include a few more zones, including Chaves County
where blowing dust may impact the south side of Roswell during the
afternoon. Smoke from fires in southern NM may also get advected
into the area during the late afternoon and evening hours, however
that will depend on those fires growing rapidly today. Precip
chances will focus in the northwest where humidities will be higher,
but the rain will still struggle to reach the ground given the dry
boundary layer. The bigger hazard will be gusty outflow winds, with
the Gallup to Farmington area being the favored area for these
strong winds. A decaying front will push through western and
eventually central NM in the afternoon and evening hours, gradually
shifting southwest winds around to the northwest.

A second trough will then approach the area from the northwest on
Monday, bringing another round of strong winds which will be more
westerly across much of the area, with the strongest winds focusing
over the central and south-central highlands. Winds won't be quite
as strong as today, however increased mid-level moisture will lead
to the development of scattered high based convection in western and
central NM. DCAPE in the 300-600J/kg range suggests the potential
for strong winds (35 to 45 mph) at the sfc with any showers that
develop. There could be a few rumbles of thunder as well, with far
northern NM being the most likely area since dry air entrainment
won't be as much of a hindrance as areas further south. A stronger
Pacific front will move through Monday, turning winds around to the
northwest and ushering in well-below average (10 to 20 degrees)
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM MDT Sun May 18 2025

The final upper wave in the latest series will be exiting northeast
NM Monday night. Much cooler air will settle into the region in the
wake of a strong Pacific cold front. Strong surface high pressure
and very dry air with clearing skies will lead to very efficient
radiational cooling. Northern and western valleys will cool into the
20s with widespread 30s and 40s elsewhere. The average last spring
freeze date has passed for growing zones and there is potential for
subfreezing lows around Taos, Moriarty, Raton, Las Vegas, Grants and
Gallup. The NBM has the greatest chances (>80%) of temps falling
below 32F at Taos and Gallup with lower chances (30-50%) at the
other sites listed.

The remainder of this week will feature a strong warming trend as
northwest flow Tuesday becomes more zonal Wednesday/Thursday then
gradually southwesterly Friday as ridging strengthens over northern
MX. Heat risk will gradually increase over the region with the first
90s for the ABQ metro southward Friday and perhaps the first 100s
for Chaves County. The NBM indicates the hottest day in Roswell as
Saturday with probability >99F near 15%. Low level moisture will
begin sloshing over far eastern NM and deepen each morning thru the
end of the week. A couple storms may develop over far northeast NM
and west TX Thursday which forces low level moisture westward toward
the central mt chain Friday morning. The GFS is the most bullish
with moisture surging into eastern NM with potential for strong
canyon winds in the Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Sun May 18 2025

Broken ceilings and showers are reaching far northwestern NM,
including KFMN this hour. Isolated visibility dropping to MVFR
has been observed at KFMN but will be short-lived in this area of
the state through the afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere,
southwest winds have already increased in speeds this past hour
with widespread gusts of 35 to 40 kts observed. Peak gusts of 40
to 50 kts will be observed in some spots along the highlands from
KSRR to KLVS to KRTN this afternoon before winds diminish between
00Z to 03Z. Blowing dust will also be a concern at KROW and have
maintained a TEMPO there for MVFR visibility resulting from this.
While winds at the surface are forecast to diminish this evening
and overnight, LLWS will remain along and just east of the Sangre
de Cristo Mts. Have included a mention of this at KLVS until
surface winds begin picking back up again b/w 12Z to 16Z Monday
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM MDT Sun May 18 2025

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY...

Critical fire weather conditions are expected again today from the
southwest mountains to the central highlands. Humidities will
decrease from north to south and the southern portion of the Middle
Rio Grande Valley could experience up to 10 hours of single digit
relative humidity today. As of 3AM, many of the stations in the area
are just over 10% today and will struggle to get over 15% by the
early morning. Critical fire weather conditions are likely in the
eastern and northeast plains this afternoon as well, however fuels
are likely not primed to carry fire due to the recent green up. That
being said, wind-driven fires in fine fuels cannot be ruled out if
there are any fire starts today. A pacific front will move across
the state today, increasing moisture slightly. Overnight recoveries
will be better than today, but deep mixing Monday afternoon will
once again dry out the boundary layer. These dry conditions combined
with strong west winds may result in another round of critical fire
weather conditions in south-central and southwestern NM on Monday
afternoon so a Fire Weather Watch was issued for these areas.
Humidities are marginal for critical conditions and that will be the
determining factor when deciding whether or not to upgrade in
subsequent shifts. Gusty showers and even a few storms will focus in
areas along and north of I-40 on Monday, however wetting rainfall is
unlikely for most locations.

Warmer and less windy weather is forecast for Tuesday through the
end of the workweek, limiting fire danger. Precipitation chances may
increase this weekend in eastern NM thanks to a Gulf moisture surge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  40  62  35 /  50  30  20   0
Dulce...........................  59  32  58  23 /  40  30  30   0
Cuba............................  63  36  58  30 /  10  10  30   0
Gallup..........................  64  35  61  24 /  10  10  30   0
El Morro........................  61  36  58  28 /   0  10  40   0
Grants..........................  67  36  62  27 /   0   5  30   0
Quemado.........................  66  39  64  30 /   0   0  20   0
Magdalena.......................  72  42  68  38 /   0   0  20   0
Datil...........................  68  38  64  32 /   0   0  20   0
Reserve.........................  71  37  74  31 /   0   0  10   0
Glenwood........................  76  42  78  38 /   0   0   5   0
Chama...........................  53  30  52  24 /  40  30  50   0
Los Alamos......................  64  41  58  36 /   5   5  30   0
Pecos...........................  66  39  59  35 /   0   0  20   0
Cerro/Questa....................  60  34  56  30 /   5   5  30   0
Red River.......................  51  30  47  24 /   5  10  40   5
Angel Fire......................  57  31  53  24 /   0   5  30   0
Taos............................  64  33  60  26 /   5   5  20   0
Mora............................  63  38  58  31 /   0   0  30   0
Espanola........................  71  41  66  36 /   5   5  20   0
Santa Fe........................  66  40  60  34 /   0   0  30   0
Santa Fe Airport................  70  40  64  36 /   0   0  20   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  73  47  66  41 /   0   0  20   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  76  47  69  41 /   0   0  20   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  77  46  71  40 /   0   0  20   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  75  46  69  41 /   0   0  20   0
Belen...........................  80  46  74  38 /   0   0  10   0
Bernalillo......................  75  46  70  41 /   0   0  20   0
Bosque Farms....................  78  45  72  37 /   0   0  20   0
Corrales........................  76  46  70  41 /   0   0  20   0
Los Lunas.......................  78  46  72  38 /   0   0  20   0
Placitas........................  72  45  65  40 /   0   0  20   0
Rio Rancho......................  75  46  69  41 /   0   0  20   0
Socorro.........................  83  48  79  44 /   0   0  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  68  41  60  36 /   0   0  20   0
Tijeras.........................  70  42  63  37 /   0   0  20   0
Edgewood........................  71  41  63  35 /   0   0  20   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  73  40  65  33 /   0   0  20   0
Clines Corners..................  69  40  60  34 /   0   0  10   0
Mountainair.....................  72  41  65  36 /   0   0  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  73  42  67  36 /   0   0  10   0
Carrizozo.......................  76  48  74  43 /   0   0   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  68  45  66  41 /   0   0   5   0
Capulin.........................  69  39  61  33 /   0   0  30  10
Raton...........................  72  39  66  33 /   0   0  30   5
Springer........................  73  40  66  35 /   0   0  20   0
Las Vegas.......................  69  40  62  33 /   0   0  10   0
Clayton.........................  79  47  72  42 /   0   0  30  20
Roy.............................  73  43  67  37 /   0   0  20   0
Conchas.........................  83  49  74  43 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  79  48  70  42 /   0   0  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  84  51  77  44 /   0   0  10   0
Clovis..........................  86  51  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  88  51  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  85  50  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  92  55  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  81  49  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  78  49  75  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ223-225>233-
238>240.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ106-109-124-
125.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for NMZ106-109.

&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...24

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
124 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     High Sust Winds  2 S Fort Stanton        33.47N 105.52W
05/18/2025  M40 MPH          Lincoln            NM   AWOS

            AWOS station KSRR Sierra Blanca Rgnl Arpt.

&&

ANM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
133 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     High Sust Winds  11 SE Vaughn            34.48N 105.08W
05/18/2025  M40 MPH          Guadalupe          NM   Mesonet

            Mesonet station SVAN5 SE Vaughn.

&&

ANM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
149 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     High Sust Winds  1 NE Dunken             32.82N 105.18W
05/18/2025  M40 MPH          Chaves             NM   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DUNN5 Dunken 2 NE (Dunken).

&&

ANM