Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1137 AM MDT Sun May 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1009 AM MDT Sun May 4 2025

- Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will
  impact portions of eastern New Mexico today. A Flood Watch for
  flash flooding is in effect for eastern New Mexico, including
  much of the Sangre de Cristo and northern Sacramento Mountains,
  from noon today through late tonight.

- Another round of strong to severe storms is forecast for Monday
  afternoon through the evening hours in eastern New Mexico. There
  will be more heavy rainfall across this same region through at
  least Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun May 4 2025

A weak vort max is shifting northeastward across south central and
southeast NM this morning, allowing for showers and isolated
thunderstorms to persist across central and south central areas.
This activity will remain light through mid morning. Meanwhile, an
upper level low is diving southward over CA and it will deepen as it
moves into southwest AZ this afternoon. In response to the
approaching low, southeasterly surface flow over eastern NM will
advect better Gulf moisture into the area by the afternoon. As large
scale ascent moves over NM today, showers and thunderstorms will
develop. Storms will first develop along the low level moisture
gradient, roughly from the South Central Mountains north-
northwestward up the Rio Grande Valley into northwest NM between
noon and 2pm. Storms will then expand/shift north and eastward
across all of eastern NM through the afternoon. Storms will be
moving quickly toward the north or north-northeast today, generally
around 25 to 35 mph.

Impressive 0-6km shear will exist this afternoon along and east of
the central and south central mountains where MUCAPE values between
500-1000 J/kg will also exist. This will allow severe storms to
favor this area this afternoon and evening, with large hail and
damaging wind gusts the main concerns. Low CAPE values also extend
into northwest NM, thus can't rule out a few strong storms across
north central and northwest NM with small hail and gusty winds. In
addition to the severe weather, flash flooding also remains a
concern and a Flood Watch remains in effect for all of eastern NM.
Initially, the fast storm motions will limit the threat for flash
flooding. However, repeated rounds of precipitation over the same
area through the overnight period will increase the potential for
flash flooding. It looks like the initial wave of precipitation will
still be over NE NM as the next round initiates on the nose of the
upper level jet across south central and southeast areas where the
better low level moisture resides between 7 and 10pm. This round of
precipitation will also track northward through the overnight hours
across the same areas that had precipitation earlier in the day.
Fortunately, much of northeast NM will have stabilized, thus steady
light to moderate rain will be the rule there, but some instability
will persist further south.

The second wave of precipitation will slowly be exiting northeast
NM Monday morning. However, the "break" between waves of
precipitation will be difficult to notice as the upper low
continues to shift eastward near the NM/AZ border Monday.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to continually
develop favoring northern and eastern areas through the afternoon
Monday. Southeasterly low level flow will persist across northeast
NM, but the moisture gradient/dryline will tighten up near a
Raton to Santa Rosa to Portales line. East of this line, another
round of severe storms is expected to develop. Saturated soils
from today's rainfall will increase chances further for flash
flooding.

Humidity values will lower this afternoon across southwest and south
central areas as drier air aloft mixes to the surface. Gusty
southerly winds will also be the rule. This areas of drier but gusty
southerly winds will expand on Monday as a modest dry slot presses
through the area.

Last but not least, temperatures will be cold enough for snow across
the highest elevations (AOA 10kft) across the northern mountains
late this afternoon through the next few days. A few inches of
accumulation is possible through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun May 4 2025

The upper level low, catalyst for the bouts of heavy rain and
strong/severe storms, continues to spin over NM/AZ Monday night as
it slowly progresses eastward. At the surface, a dryline recedes
back westward as surface decoupling occurs. Bulk shear in excess of
50kts is forecast to remain over eastern NM, and marginal SBCAPE
hovering around 500 J/kg support convection continuing into the
evening hours of Monday. Any stronger storm that develops would be
capable of large hail and strong wind gusts, with a low, very
isolated tornado threat. A vorticity max swings around the southern
edge of the upper low Monday night, adding an additional forcing
mechanism to storms across the eastern plains through the night.
With PWATs sitting around 0.8", a flash flooding threat begins to
materialize as areas across the east may already be saturated from
previous rainfall. This becomes amplified with a surface low forming
in northeast NM and into the TX panhandle through the day Tuesday,
forming a TROWAL feature and sending a front through the plains,
which works to locally increase precipitation rates and coverage of
rain. This current thinking is mirrored well with both the day 2 and
3 ERO from WPC. Generally, the most likely precip amounts are to
fall between 1-2" across eastern NM Monday night through Tuesday,
with locally higher amounts in any training or heavier thunderstorms.

As the low spins overhead, 700mb temps drop below freezing across
the area through the morning and afternoon hours on Tuesday. This
propels snow to be the main precip type across terrain above
9,000ft, especially in the northern mountains. Additional
accumulations between 3-8in are likely, though will be confined to
the peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Minor to locally
moderate impacts are likely (>70% chance) to occur during this
time as well, though confined to routes along/near mountain
passes.

As the low moves eastward, disturbances moving down the front side
of a building ridge continue to spark afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms, mainly across higher terrain. This trend continues
into the latter part of the week, while temperatures begin to rise
as a ridge builds in place. A Rex Block feature may form this
weekend, continuing to produce afternoon showers and thunderstorms
with weak forcing and instability.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1009 AM MDT Sun May 4 2025

Sct/num thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon/evening, with
focus over eastern NM tonight. MVFR conditions are forecast with
storms, but short-lived IFR conditions are possible. Large hail
will be an aviation hazard later today, mainly across south
central and east central NM. A gusty east canyon wind is forecast
to develop later today at KABQ and an Airport Weather Warning may
be required for gusts of 35-40kts. Widespread MVFR to IFR cigs are
forecast to develop overnight across eastern NM and impact KLVS,
KTCC and KROW. Mountain obscurations will become more widespread
overnight as well. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail and are
forecast to persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun May 4 2025

An active weather pattern will persist through the week. Higher
humidity, cooler temperatures and wetting rainfall will be on tap,
especially today through Tuesday across northern and eastern NM.
Additionally, several inches of snow is expected across the highest
peaks (>10kft) across the northern mountains through this period. A
few hours of critical fire weather conditions remain expected across
the Southwest Mountains and lower Rio Grande Valley this afternoon
where gusty southerly winds and RH values between 10 and 15 percent
will develop. This will be the only period of critical fire weather
conditions for the next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66  43  59  38 /  80  80  90  30
Dulce...........................  64  37  57  27 /  80  80  90  30
Cuba............................  63  37  57  31 /  70  80  70  40
Gallup..........................  65  33  55  28 /  40  70  70  40
El Morro........................  62  33  51  30 /  50  60  70  40
Grants..........................  64  34  57  28 /  50  70  50  40
Quemado.........................  65  33  54  31 /  30  40  50  30
Magdalena.......................  66  39  59  37 /  50  50  30  30
Datil...........................  63  33  55  32 /  40  40  40  30
Reserve.........................  69  32  60  27 /  30  40  30  20
Glenwood........................  73  36  65  32 /  50  40  20  20
Chama...........................  60  35  53  26 /  90  90  90  30
Los Alamos......................  59  40  56  38 /  80  90  70  30
Pecos...........................  62  38  57  35 /  90  90  70  40
Cerro/Questa....................  63  36  53  32 /  80  90  80  40
Red River.......................  52  31  42  26 /  80  90  90  50
Angel Fire......................  56  34  49  24 /  90  90  90  50
Taos............................  64  36  57  29 /  80  90  80  30
Mora............................  59  34  53  29 /  90  90  90  50
Espanola........................  70  44  63  37 /  80  90  70  30
Santa Fe........................  63  40  57  38 /  80  90  70  40
Santa Fe Airport................  66  42  61  37 /  80  90  60  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  46  63  44 /  80  80  40  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  69  47  64  41 /  70  80  40  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  71  44  66  40 /  70  80  30  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  70  46  65  42 /  70  80  40  30
Belen...........................  74  44  67  38 /  60  70  30  30
Bernalillo......................  70  46  66  41 /  80  80  40  30
Bosque Farms....................  73  42  66  37 /  70  70  30  30
Corrales........................  71  45  66  41 /  80  80  40  30
Los Lunas.......................  73  43  66  39 /  70  70  30  30
Placitas........................  66  45  61  42 /  80  80  40  40
Rio Rancho......................  70  47  64  42 /  70  80  40  30
Socorro.........................  78  46  70  42 /  50  50  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  41  57  37 /  90  90  50  40
Tijeras.........................  65  43  59  38 /  90  80  40  40
Edgewood........................  64  43  59  35 /  80  80  40  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  64  42  62  30 /  80  80  40  40
Clines Corners..................  60  39  57  34 /  90  90  40  40
Mountainair.....................  65  41  60  34 /  80  70  20  40
Gran Quivira....................  65  40  59  34 /  80  70  20  40
Carrizozo.......................  71  45  65  40 /  70  70  10  40
Ruidoso.........................  62  40  58  37 /  80  70  20  40
Capulin.........................  66  39  52  35 /  50  80  90  60
Raton...........................  68  40  57  35 /  60  90  90  50
Springer........................  68  41  59  36 /  80 100  90  50
Las Vegas.......................  58  38  55  34 /  90  90  80  50
Clayton.........................  72  44  55  43 /  30  80 100  80
Roy.............................  66  42  57  39 /  80  90  90  70
Conchas.........................  73  48  64  44 /  80 100  80  70
Santa Rosa......................  68  47  64  41 /  90  90  60  60
Tucumcari.......................  72  48  64  45 /  60  90  80  80
Clovis..........................  72  47  64  47 /  50  90  70  80
Portales........................  73  46  65  45 /  50  90  60  80
Fort Sumner.....................  72  48  67  44 /  80  90  60  70
Roswell.........................  75  53  75  50 /  80  90  20  60
Picacho.........................  69  46  69  41 /  80  80  10  50
Elk.............................  68  42  67  38 /  90  80  10  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ214-215-223-226>239.

&&

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...11

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