Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Albuquerque, NM

468 
WGUS75 KABQ 022102
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
302 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

NMC027-030000-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0065.000000T0000Z-250703T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lincoln NM-
302 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SALT BURN SCAR REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...

At 302 PM MDT, emergency management reported thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain over the Salt Burn Scar. Up to 0.75 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring. Local infrastructure is 
diverting water into residences.

Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will impact Fence Canyon, Snow 
Canyon, Bear Canyon and Turkey Spring Canyon as well as Highway 70 
and the Rio Ruidoso through Ruidoso Downs. Impacts may also occur 
downstream of Ruidoso Downs along the Rio Ruidoso. The debris flow 
can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and other loose materials.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Salt Burn Scar.

SOURCE...Emergency management reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Salt Burn Scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Ruidoso, Ruidoso Downs, Glencoe, San Patricio, Hondo, Tinnie and 
  Hollywood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a life threatening situation. Heavy rainfall will cause 
extensive and severe flash flooding of creeks, streams and ditches 
in the Salt Burn Scar. Severe debris flows can also be anticipated 
across roads. Roads and driveways may be washed away in places. If 
you encounter flood waters, climb to safety.

&&

LAT...LON 3343 10545 3343 10539 3337 10513 3334 10513
      3336 10525 3341 10538 3340 10542 3331 10558
      3331 10565 3333 10563

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

ANM

648 
WGUS75 KABQ 022200
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
400 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

NMC027-022210-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FF.W.0065.000000T0000Z-250703T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lincoln NM-
400 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SALT BURN SCAR IS CANCELLED FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flash flooding 
is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any 
remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3343 10545 3343 10539 3337 10513 3334 10513
      3336 10525 3341 10538 3340 10542 3331 10558
      3331 10565 3333 10563

$$

ANM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1235 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

- Monsoon moisture remains over much of northern and central New
  Mexico through Thursday, allowing for greater coverage of
  showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. These will
  be efficient rain producing storms which will increase the risk
  of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, mainly over area burn
  scars.

- Drier air sweeps in by the Fourth of July holiday and Saturday,
  limiting the development of showers and thunderstorms before
  rain chances rise Sunday going into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

An inverted trough over the area is forecast to lift northeast out
of NM overnight and be replaced with increasing southwest flow
aloft as a Pacific low, currently over southern CA per the latest
water vapor, fills and moves east into AZ. Drier air aloft
rotating around the Pacific low will overtake the area Thursday
and result in increased moisture convergence. This, along with
more favorable veering wind profiles, instability generated by
daytime heating and added forcing from the shortwave trough
(formerly the Pacific low) will add up to increased chances for
storms, with some possibly becoming strong. Burn scar flash
flooding will still be a concern Thursday, but will hold off on a
flash flood watch for now given initial storm motion will be
cross-basin on the HPCC scar and forcing will be less impressive
further south near the Ruidoso area scars. A few storms may linger
after sunset Thursday evening across eastern NM where favorable
low level inflow will reside.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

PWATs will trend down dramatically on Independence Day as a drier
airmass moves in behind the departing shortwave trough and a
Monsoon high builds over NM through the holiday weekend. Expect a
significant downtrend in daily rounds of storms Fri/Sat, with a
few storms possible from the Sangre De Cristos east and south
toward Clayton, Tucumcari and Clovis where sufficient moisture
will remain. The Monsoon high is forecast to strengthen to near
595dam at 500mb over NM this weekend and will correlate with high
temperatures rising to a few degrees above average most areas.

PWATs will be back on the uptrend from early through mid next week
as the upper high moves slowly westward, away from NM and low
level moisture works northwest across the area under the upper
high circulation. As a result, rounds of daytime heating
triggered convection will be back on the uptrend, favoring the
mountains during the afternoon hours and nearby highlands and
valleys during the late afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures
will generally be a few degrees above average across central and
western NM next week under the influence of the upper high.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period across western NM, with moisture across eastern NM leading
to periods of MVFR conditions in low stratus. Shorter-lived IFR
conditions are possible at KLVS overnight. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms today will mostly likely impact KGUP, KROW and
KTCC, but probabilities are too low to include at other TAF
sites. MVFR conditions will accompany showers and storms today,
with potential for strong/erratic wind gusts across western NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days. Good chances for wetting showers and storms
will continue through Thursday and then get mostly shut-down on
Fri/Sat as drier air moves in from the west and the Monsoon high
builds over the region. Hotter conditions will prevail from late
weekend through the middle of next week under the influence of
the Monsoon high. Chances for wetting storms will be back on the
uptrend during the late weekend through mid week period as
moisture gets drawn into the Monsoon high circulation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  87  59  90 /  30  30  20   0
Dulce...........................  48  83  46  86 /  30  70  20   5
Cuba............................  56  81  54  85 /  50  70  30   0
Gallup..........................  52  82  49  86 /  60  70  20   0
El Morro........................  53  79  52  83 /  60  70  20   0
Grants..........................  53  82  52  88 /  40  70  20   0
Quemado.........................  57  79  55  83 /  60  70  30  10
Magdalena.......................  61  80  61  87 /  40  70  20   5
Datil...........................  55  76  56  83 /  70  70  20  10
Reserve.........................  54  84  51  90 /  70  70  20  10
Glenwood........................  57  88  56  93 /  70  70  20  20
Chama...........................  47  78  45  80 /  30  70  30  10
Los Alamos......................  59  79  58  83 /  40  70  40   5
Pecos...........................  55  79  56  84 /  40  70  30   5
Cerro/Questa....................  54  81  53  83 /  20  70  20  10
Red River.......................  45  70  45  74 /  30  70  30  20
Angel Fire......................  41  73  42  77 /  20  70  30  20
Taos............................  52  83  50  85 /  20  70  20  10
Mora............................  47  77  50  82 /  30  70  30  10
Espanola........................  60  88  59  92 /  40  60  20   0
Santa Fe........................  59  81  58  85 /  50  70  20   0
Santa Fe Airport................  59  85  58  89 /  40  60  20   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  88  66  92 /  40  60  30   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  89  64  94 /  40  50  20   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  91  64  96 /  40  50  20   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  89  66  94 /  40  50  20   0
Belen...........................  64  91  63  95 /  40  50  20   0
Bernalillo......................  65  91  64  95 /  40  50  20   0
Bosque Farms....................  63  90  62  95 /  40  50  30   0
Corrales........................  66  91  65  95 /  40  50  20   0
Los Lunas.......................  65  90  63  95 /  40  50  30   0
Placitas........................  63  86  63  90 /  40  60  20   0
Rio Rancho......................  66  89  65  94 /  40  50  20   0
Socorro.........................  67  90  66  97 /  50  60  20   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  82  57  85 /  40  60  30   0
Tijeras.........................  59  83  59  88 /  40  60  30   0
Edgewood........................  55  82  55  87 /  40  60  30   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  83  53  88 /  40  60  30   0
Clines Corners..................  55  77  56  83 /  30  60  30   0
Mountainair.....................  57  81  56  86 /  50  70  20   0
Gran Quivira....................  57  81  56  86 /  50  70  20   5
Carrizozo.......................  61  82  62  89 /  50  70  30   5
Ruidoso.........................  54  73  57  81 /  50  70  30  20
Capulin.........................  54  78  53  82 /  20  40  30  20
Raton...........................  54  83  54  87 /  20  50  30  20
Springer........................  57  84  56  89 /  20  50  30  10
Las Vegas.......................  54  79  54  86 /  30  70  30   5
Clayton.........................  61  83  61  90 /  20  20  30  10
Roy.............................  59  80  58  88 /  20  40  30   5
Conchas.........................  64  86  64  95 /  30  40  30   0
Santa Rosa......................  62  82  62  91 /  30  40  30   0
Tucumcari.......................  62  83  64  93 /  30  30  30   0
Clovis..........................  63  82  65  93 /  50  30  30   5
Portales........................  63  83  65  94 /  50  40  30   5
Fort Sumner.....................  63  84  64  95 /  30  30  30   0
Roswell.........................  67  85  68  96 /  50  40  20   0
Picacho.........................  62  81  61  90 /  50  70  30   5
Elk.............................  57  79  59  87 /  60  70  30  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11