Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Albuquerque, NM

257 
WGUS75 KABQ 010040
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
640 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

NMC047-010200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0063.000000T0000Z-250701T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Miguel NM-
640 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE HERMITS PEAK AND CALF CANYON BURN 
SCAR REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN 
SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

At 640 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated the thunderstorms that 
produced heavy rain over the Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Burn Scar 
diminishing. Up to 1.9 inches of rain have fallen. Additional 
rainfall amounts up to 0.25 inches are possible in the warned area. 
Flash flooding is likely ongoing.

Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will impact the Tecolote Creek 
and Gallinas River drainage areas. The debris flow can consist of 
rock, mud, vegetation and other loose materials.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Hermits Peak and Calf
         Canyon Burn Scar.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Burn Scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  El Porvenir, Montezuma, Sapello, Tierra Monte, Gallinas, Mineral 
  Hill, Rociada, Manuelitas and San Geronimo.

This includes the following highways...
	State Road 94 between Mile Markers 1 and 9.
	State Road 518 between Mile Markers 10 and 16.
	State Road 283 between Mile Markers 7 and 12...and
	near Mile Marker 14.
	State Road 276 between Mile Markers 0 and 5.
	State Road 266 between Mile Markers 0 and 6.
	State Road 65 between Mile Markers 1 and 14.
	State Road 105 between Mile Markers 0 and 6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a life threatening situation. Heavy rainfall will cause 
extensive and severe flash flooding of creeks, streams and ditches 
in the Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Burn Scar. Severe debris flows 
can also be anticipated across roads. Roads and driveways may be 
washed away in places. If you encounter flood waters, climb to 
safety.

&&

LAT...LON 3583 10520 3579 10517 3575 10520 3573 10525
      3568 10524 3564 10525 3561 10524 3556 10539
      3553 10545 3554 10551 3570 10553 3572 10556
      3576 10556 3580 10553 3587 10552 3587 10535

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

44

033 
WGUS75 KABQ 010149
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
749 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

NMC047-010159-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FF.W.0063.000000T0000Z-250701T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Miguel NM-
749 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE HERMITS PEAK AND CALF CANYON BURN 
SCAR IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1200 AM MDT for portions of 
central, north central, and northeast New Mexico.

&&

LAT...LON 3583 10520 3579 10517 3575 10520 3573 10525
      3568 10524 3564 10525 3561 10524 3556 10539
      3553 10545 3554 10551 3570 10553 3572 10556
      3576 10556 3580 10553 3587 10552 3587 10535

$$

44

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
156 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 155 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

- Abundant moisture returns today through Thursday allowing for
  greater coverages of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
  and evening. These will be efficient rain producing storms which
  will increase the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding,
  especially over recent burn scars.

- Drier air sweeps in by the Fourth of July holiday and Saturday,
  limiting the development of showers and thunderstorms before
  rain chances rise again on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to erupt through the
afternoon, favoring areas along and near the Central Mountain
Chain. As has been the case already this afternoon, storm may
initially be strong or severe with hail, but they will tend to
decrease in intensity rather quickly, producing an outflow
boundary. Outflow boundaries may produce winds of 50 to 60 mph.
Storms will expand late this afternoon and this evening with the
aid of outflow boundary collisions. After sunset, much of the
activity is expected to be across eastern NM which may persist
well into Tuesday morning. With time though, conditions should
stabilize and precipitation should become more stratiform.
Nonetheless, the main concern through tonight is heavy rainfall
with slow storm motions. With PWATs increasing to around 1 inch
in the Rio Grande Valley by late afternoon and up to 1.5 inches
across eastern NM, storms will be efficient at producing rainfall.
A quick inch in 20-30 minutes is not out of the question. This
will be especially problematic for burn scars if/when additional
development occurs on the scars.

Storms and outflow boundaries along and east of the Central
Mountain Chain will help push an easterly wind through the gaps.
In the ABQ Metro, wind speeds could be as strong as 50 mph or
more. These easterly winds will push richer moisture westward this
evening and overnight, likely pushing past the AZ border. This
will raise PWATS close to one inch across western NM.

On Tuesday, an inverted trough will be located over NM with
potentially an MCV loitering around eastern NM due to tonight's
convection. Generally speaking, the inverted trough should help
kick off another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon. The main question continues to be how stable portions
of eastern NM will be. Abundant cloud cover, perhaps some morning
showers and cooler temperatures should help to stabilize the area.
That would mean that while there could be some shower activity,
thunderstorm activity and heavier precipitation would be harder to
come by. That said, any remnant boundaries or an MCV could
help destabilize the area. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures,
steeper mid level lapse rates and a fresh influx of richer
moisture should allow for thunderstorms to develop along and west
of the Rio Grande Valley. Similar to today, will probably see a
few brief strong to severe storms and gusty outflow. However,
there will also be a risk of heavy precipitation and flash
flooding, especially given the continued slow storm motions.
Given the uncertainty and the desire to see how the rest of the
evening transpires, have held off on a Flood Watch for Tuesday.

Some storms will linger through Tuesday night, and most models
suggest this will be across southern NM. Again,this may be more
in the way of stratiform precipitation across southeast NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

On Wednesday, flow will become southerly, or a more traditional
monsoon flow as the upper high gradually loses it's grip on NM.
Wednesday looks to be a pretty standard monsoon day, with showers
and thunderstorms developing over all high terrain areas first,
and then gradually filling in across the lower elevations. PWATs
will remain above average, so heavy rainfall will remain a
concern.

The upper level low that will be inching across CA Tuesday and
Wednesday looks to finally fill and start to eject eastward on
Thursday. This brings southerly flow aloft around to the
southwest, and low level flow may turn westerly across western and
perhaps central NM. This will begin to bring in some drier air to
northwest NM, but the moisture gradient that will set up near/east
of the ContDvd will likely be a focus for strong to briefly
severe storms Thursday afternoon. Elsewhere, storms will again
favor the high terrain initially, but as the trough pushes
eastward, storms should become more numerous across the lower
elevations and continue well into Thursday night across central
and eastern NM.

The trough axis crosses the state on Friday, and a potent dry slot
will punch into the state. This will significantly limit
precipitation areawide. We may see only a few storms on Friday.
The favored area will be far northeast NM where a boundary may
press into the area. Saturday looks to stay pretty quiet as well,
except across northeast NM as the boundary lingers. Otherwise,
dry air will remain aloft and an upper high will build overhead. A
few more storms are possible on Sunday, mainly across eastern NM,
but overall, still quieter than much of this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across the high
terrain this afternoon, favoring areas along and near the Central
Mountain Chain. Storms will be capable of gusty and erratic winds
up to 50kt, hail up to 1 inch in diameter and heavy rainfall.
Brief period of MVFR cigs and vsbys will be possible with the
stronger convection through the evening. Storms will persist
through the evening and overnight as they fill in via outflow
boundary collisions across lower elevations. Some shower activity
will likely persist across southeast NM through Tuesday morning.
Additionally, low VFR or MVFR cigs will expand across eastern NM
late tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Isolated dry thunderstorms will continue through this evening
across far western NM.A strong gap wind will develop in the Rio
Grande Valley this afternoon and evening, which will send richer
moisture westward to the AZ border. This moisture will set the
stage for daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday areawide. Some storms will produce heavy rainfall as well
as gusty and erratic winds. A dry slot will punch into NM from the
west on Friday, limiting precipitation and dropping humidities.
Relatively quiet and dry conditions will persist Saturday as an
upper high builds overhead. A few storms will be possible mainly
across northeast NM. Perhaps a few more storms on Sunday as Gulf
moisture returns to eastern NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  91  62  89 /   5  20  20  20
Dulce...........................  47  84  48  85 /  10  50  20  40
Cuba............................  54  80  53  81 /  10  40  30  40
Gallup..........................  57  87  55  83 /  10  30  30  40
El Morro........................  55  81  53  79 /  10  40  40  70
Grants..........................  55  83  53  82 /  20  40  30  60
Quemado.........................  56  84  56  80 /  30  50  50  70
Magdalena.......................  58  77  57  78 /  50  50  40  70
Datil...........................  53  78  54  76 /  40  60  50  70
Reserve.........................  52  89  52  85 /  20  60  40  70
Glenwood........................  57  91  56  88 /  20  70  40  70
Chama...........................  46  76  45  77 /  20  60  30  50
Los Alamos......................  57  75  56  76 /  40  60  30  70
Pecos...........................  53  72  53  74 /  70  70  40  70
Cerro/Questa....................  50  76  51  78 /  50  50  20  50
Red River.......................  43  67  43  68 /  50  50  20  50
Angel Fire......................  40  68  40  71 /  70  60  20  60
Taos............................  50  78  50  80 /  40  50  20  50
Mora............................  48  69  46  72 /  60  70  30  60
Espanola........................  57  82  57  86 /  40  50  20  50
Santa Fe........................  57  75  56  78 /  60  60  30  60
Santa Fe Airport................  56  78  54  81 /  60  50  30  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  81  62  83 /  40  40  30  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  82  62  83 /  40  40  30  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  84  61  85 /  30  30  30  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  83  63  83 /  30  30  30  30
Belen...........................  60  85  61  87 /  30  30  30  30
Bernalillo......................  63  84  61  85 /  40  40  30  40
Bosque Farms....................  60  84  60  85 /  30  30  30  30
Corrales........................  63  84  61  85 /  30  40  30  40
Los Lunas.......................  60  84  61  85 /  30  30  30  30
Placitas........................  61  79  60  81 /  40  40  30  40
Rio Rancho......................  64  83  63  84 /  30  30  30  40
Socorro.........................  63  85  63  86 /  40  40  40  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  55  75  55  79 /  50  50  30  50
Tijeras.........................  58  77  58  80 /  50  50  30  50
Edgewood........................  54  76  53  79 /  60  50  30  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  75  52  79 /  60  60  40  60
Clines Corners..................  53  68  52  73 /  60  60  50  60
Mountainair.....................  55  74  54  77 /  50  50  40  60
Gran Quivira....................  55  74  53  76 /  50  50  50  60
Carrizozo.......................  61  78  59  78 /  40  70  50  70
Ruidoso.........................  53  67  53  69 /  40  80  60  80
Capulin.........................  51  70  52  75 /  50  40  20  30
Raton...........................  52  77  52  80 /  60  50  10  40
Springer........................  53  75  53  80 /  60  50  20  40
Las Vegas.......................  52  70  51  74 /  60  70  30  60
Clayton.........................  60  77  59  79 /  40  40  30  20
Roy.............................  56  72  56  75 /  70  50  40  40
Conchas.........................  62  77  61  80 /  60  60  50  40
Santa Rosa......................  60  73  59  75 /  60  70  60  50
Tucumcari.......................  61  77  60  79 /  50  60  60  40
Clovis..........................  62  75  60  79 /  60  70  70  50
Portales........................  61  75  60  80 /  60  70  70  60
Fort Sumner.....................  62  78  61  80 /  50  70  60  50
Roswell.........................  65  78  65  81 /  80  70  70  60
Picacho.........................  60  75  60  76 /  60  80  60  80
Elk.............................  57  73  57  75 /  50  80  60  80

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ212-214-215-218-
221>224-226-229-239.

&&

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
256 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

NMZ225-302130-
Upper Tularosa Valley NM-
256 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN
COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

At 256 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 33 miles south of Bingham to 23 miles
southwest of Carrizozo, moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Mainly rural areas of Southwestern Lincoln County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains from severe thunderstorms can produce sudden and
dangerous flows in arroyos, ditches and over low water crossings. Do
not attempt to drive through areas where water covers the roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 3349 10635 3350 10620 3342 10605 3339 10605
      3339 10637 3348 10637 3348 10636
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 17DEG 13KT 3341 10635 3337 10611

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
258 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

NMZ208-302130-
Southwest Mountains NM-
258 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CATRON COUNTY
UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

At 258 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles southwest of Beaverhead, or 42 miles southeast of Reserve,
moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Mainly rural areas of South Central Catron County.

Dime size hail is also expected with this storm.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains from severe thunderstorms can produce sudden and
dangerous flows in arroyos, ditches and over low water crossings. Do
not attempt to drive through areas where water covers the roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 3338 10837 3336 10814 3320 10817 3320 10840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 17DEG 17KT 3324 10830

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

44

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
316 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     20 S Bingham            33.61N 106.42W
06/30/2025  M69 MPH          Socorro            NM   Mesonet

            Mesonet station WSM43 Little Burro (WSMR).

&&

42

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
320 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

NMZ219-302215-
Middle Rio Grande Valley including the Albuquerque Metro Area NM-
320 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN VALENCIA AND
BERNALILLO COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 320 PM MDT, decaying showers and thunderstorms along the central
mountain chain were producing strong east winds through central
Bernalillo and Valencia Counties.  East canyon wind gusts will
probably persist until at least 5 PM below canyons opening into the
central valley from the east.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Albuquerque, Los Lunas, Belen, Valencia, Los Ranchos De
  Albuquerque, Bosque Farms, Isleta Pueblo, Meadow Lake, El Cerro
  Mission and South Valley.

This includes the following highways...
	Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 149 and 168.
	Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 190 and 230.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Blowing dust associated with strong thunderstorm winds can reduce
visibility below one quarter mile at times.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 10651 3463 10690 3516 10679 3514 10648
      3513 10648 3513 10649 3511 10649 3510 10648
      3507 10648
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 225DEG 13KT 3492 10665

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
325 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

NMZ209-302200-
San Francisco River Valley NM-
325 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CATRON
COUNTY UNTIL 4 PM MDT...

At 325 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 6 miles southwest of Pleasanton to 10
miles northwest of Alma, moving west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Alma, Glenwood and Pleasanton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains from severe thunderstorms can produce sudden and
dangerous flows in arroyos, ditches and over low water crossings. Do
not attempt to drive through areas where water covers the roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 3359 10882 3356 10882 3355 10885 3352 10886
      3352 10883 3351 10883 3350 10882 3342 10882
      3337 10884 3329 10882 3321 10882 3321 10905
      3347 10905 3349 10901 3352 10900 3354 10901
      3356 10900 3357 10901 3358 10900 3360 10897
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 85DEG 13KT 3320 10894 3351 10897

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
358 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

NMZ209-302230-
San Francisco River Valley NM-
358 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CATRON COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

At 358 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pleasanton, or 32 miles south of Reserve, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Glenwood and Pleasanton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Blowing dust associated with strong thunderstorm winds can reduce
visibility below one quarter mile at times.

&&

LAT...LON 3338 10905 3335 10884 3321 10882 3321 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 2DEG 5KT 3327 10896

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH

44