Flash Flood Warning 49, NWS Albuquerque, NM

733 
WGUS75 KABQ 242206
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
406 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

NMC028-043-250000-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0049.000000T0000Z-250625T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Los Alamos NM-Sandoval NM-
406 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING 
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOS ALAMOS AND EAST CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTIES...

At 406 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in 
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  White Rock, Cochiti Lake, Cochiti Pueblo, Frijoles, Bandelier 
  National Monument and Pena Blanca.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Do not camp along streams and rivers. Remain alert when hiking in 
steep, narrow canyons. Know where you are relative to low spots and 
drainages.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 10625 3569 10631 3555 10637 3555 10645
      3560 10651 3572 10654 3578 10647 3587 10638
      3579 10622

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

16

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1142 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1141 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

- The potential for catastrophic flash flooding exists early this
  week, especially today, across recent burn scars. This includes
  the Ruidoso area burn scars and Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn
  scar.

- Urban and arroyo flash flooding, including the Albuquerque and
  Santa Fe Metros is likely across central and eastern NM today
  and tonight.

- Shower and storm coverage gradually lowers late in the week, but
  slow storm motion will keep the risk for flash flooding,
  especially on recent burn scars and saturated soils, in play.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Today is expected to be a high impact day for much of New Mexico as
the 1st surge of monsoon moisture for the season moves squarely
overhead.  Southerly flow west of a sprawling and stout upper level
high over the Central Appalachians and Tennessee and Ohio River
Valley will help set up this plume of monsoon moisture, which
includes some remnant moisture from former Hurricane Erick late last
week. PWATs will be very close to record levels for late June with
values around 1.2 to 1.5 across central NM and around 1.3 to 1.6
across eastern NM with locally up to 1.8 inches across Chaves
County! This high amount of available moisture combined with high
instability as indicated by LI values of -2 to -5 deg C and upper
level divergence ahead of an upper level trough/ low over the Great
Basin will set the stage for widespread shower and thunderstorm
development across the higher terrain late this morning quickly
moving down into surrounding lower elevations during the afternoon
hours. Given all the aformentioned ingredients in place and with
soils saturated from Monday's storm activity, a extreme to
catastrophic situation is in play across the Ruidoso area of burn
scars and the village itself downstream. The HREF 6 hour mean
(average) for the afternoon and early evening period for today is
depicting 1.5 to 2 inches with a worse case (ensemble max) scenario
of 2.5 to 4 inches! A high risk for flash flooding will also exist
for the HPCC burn scar with 6 hr mean amounts for the same time
period of around 0.5 to 1 inch with a worse case scenario of 1.5 to
2.5 inches. Heading into the evening, a majority of individual hi
res guidance members and the HREF show a corridor of heavy rain with
embedded thunderstorms stretching from areas just west and across
the lower RGV in southern NM up through the middle RGV and central
mountain chain, including ABQ and Santa Fe to the northeast
highlands, including Las Vegas and Raton, which is covered by the
Flash Flood Watch. Added the southwest mountains and San Augustin
plains along with Quay County based on the forecasted rainfall
amounts along with heavy rainfall across Quay County these last 2
days. Mean rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.5 inches are being
depicted from the HREF during this 6 hour evening period which is
on top of the mean 0.25 to 1.25 inches from the prior 6 hour
afternoon period. Ensemble max amounts depict some localized
amounts of up to 3 inches across this aforementioned corridor.
Model guidance then shows the corridor of heavy rain and embedded
thunderstorms pivoting slightly east over the Tularosa Basin and
South Central Mountains exiting northeast across the central and
northeast highlands and far western portions of the eastern
plains. This added rainfall will exacerbate the potentially
already life threatening situation across the Ruidoso are burn
scars and HPCC burn scar. Guidance shows the plume of showers and
thunderstorms slowly tapering off across the eastern highlands
around mid Wednesday morning.

A similar synoptic setup is expected on Wednesday with PWATs a
little lower compared to today, 1 to 1.3 inches across central NM
and 1.2 to 1.5 inches across the eastern plains. Now with all the
convective activity expected today through early Wednesday morning,
questions arise on if the atmospheric instability recovers enough
for more shower and storm development Wednesday afternoon. The HREF
does depict enough daytime heating and some clearing late Wednesday
morning across the mountain ranges west of the RGV to allow in
numerous shower and storm development during the early afternoon
before moving east into the RGV during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Despite the widespread cloud cover lingering from
tonight's expected activity, the HREF also allows numerous showers
and storms to develop across the Sacramento Mountains early
Wednesday afternoon. It does show the initial storm development and
heavier rainfall amounts staying just east of the burn scars moving
further east later in the afternoon, but this bears close watching.
After today's expected rainfall it will take very little rainfall to
cause even more flash flooding on the burn scars on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Shower and storm coverage looks to lower gradually on Thursday and
Friday as the troughing over the Great Basin dampens and upper level
flow becomes quasizonal. This will allow some drier air to move in
from the north and west. However, above average moisture (PWATs
ranging from 0.7 to 1.3 inches) will remain across southern and
eastern areas, keeping scattered to numerous shower and storm
coverage present. Storm motion will also slow down and become more
erratic keeping the higher risk for flash flooding across these
parts of the state. Upper level ridging look to slowly develop and
strengthen over the desert SW for the weekend, helping to lower
shower and storm coverage even more and keep it mainly confined to
the mountain ranges and nearby highlands. With the lower shower and
storm coverage and cloud cover along with building upper level
heights, temperatures warm back up to around average for the end of
June. A upper level disturbance moves around the ridge diving
southeast into the Great Plains Monday and Tuesday of next week.
This disturbance will shift the high back west towards Arizona and
push a backdoor front through from northeast to southwest,
recharging overall available moisture and increasing shower and
storm coverage as a result.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have already begun to develop both across
the eastern plains and western high terrain of NM. Numerous showers
and thunderstorms are expected to continue across much of the first
6 to 9 hours of the TAF period. Gusty and erratic winds are very
likely with any thunderstorm that develops. MVFR to short-lived IFR
conditions are also possible with any thunderstorm moving over a
terminal. Highest confidence for thunderstorms at TAF sites remain
at KABQ, KAEG, and KSAF, and moderate confidence for KLVS and KROW.
Timing for the thunderstorms is most likely between 18z and 02z.
Thereafter, moderate confidence in MVFR conditions across much of
central NM after 09z, with IFR conditions possible just east of the
central mountain chain (KLVS, KCQC, KSRR) as low clouds spread over
the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Heavy rainfall will be a major concern as a rich plume of monsoon
moisture arrives. Storm coverage and heavy rainfall coverage peaks
today and tomorrow. Several areas will pick up 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall through the period, but localized areas may see in excess of
4 inches. While the rainfall is needed, the fast and furious nature
of this rainfall will likely lead to excessive runoff and flash
flooding, especially over and downstream of burn scars. Though storm
coverage slowly decreases through the end of the week as drier air
tries to move in from the northwest, heavy rainfall will remain a
concern. The lowest storm coverage of the week is expected for the
weekend as an upper high builds overhead. Temperatures heat back up
to around average as a result. Shower and storm coverage increases
early next week as the high shifts west over Arizona and a backdoor
front recharges overall available moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  89  59  88  54 /  20  30  10   0
Dulce...........................  80  48  80  41 /  40  40  30   5
Cuba............................  75  53  79  51 /  60  50  50  10
Gallup..........................  84  49  84  45 /  20  20  10   0
El Morro........................  81  52  81  50 /  50  30  40   5
Grants..........................  81  52  81  49 /  60  30  50  10
Quemado.........................  82  54  82  52 /  50  40  40  20
Magdalena.......................  78  58  76  57 /  90  80  90  40
Datil...........................  79  54  77  53 /  80  60  80  30
Reserve.........................  85  50  87  49 /  40  40  40  20
Glenwood........................  89  55  89  54 /  40  40  50  20
Chama...........................  72  46  74  44 /  50  40  50  10
Los Alamos......................  72  57  76  56 /  80  60  70  20
Pecos...........................  70  54  73  52 /  90  80  80  30
Cerro/Questa....................  72  52  75  49 /  80  50  60  10
Red River.......................  62  45  66  42 /  90  50  70  20
Angel Fire......................  65  43  69  38 /  90  60  70  20
Taos............................  74  52  78  48 /  70  60  60  10
Mora............................  67  49  71  46 /  90  70  80  30
Espanola........................  79  58  82  55 /  80  60  60  20
Santa Fe........................  74  57  77  56 /  90  80  70  30
Santa Fe Airport................  77  57  80  55 /  80  70  70  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  79  63  81  63 /  80  80  70  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  81  63  82  62 /  80  80  70  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  83  62  85  62 /  80  80  70  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  81  63  83  62 /  80  70  60  30
Belen...........................  86  60  84  59 /  80  80  70  30
Bernalillo......................  82  62  84  61 /  80  70  70  30
Bosque Farms....................  84  60  84  59 /  80  80  70  30
Corrales........................  81  62  84  61 /  80  70  60  30
Los Lunas.......................  85  60  85  60 /  80  80  70  30
Placitas........................  80  61  82  61 /  80  80  70  30
Rio Rancho......................  80  62  84  62 /  80  70  60  30
Socorro.........................  86  64  84  63 /  90  80  80  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  73  56  76  55 /  80  80  70  30
Tijeras.........................  77  58  79  57 /  80  80  80  30
Edgewood........................  76  55  77  54 /  80  80  80  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  77  53  78  50 /  90  80  80  40
Clines Corners..................  70  54  71  53 /  80  90  80  40
Mountainair.....................  76  56  75  55 /  80  80  80  50
Gran Quivira....................  77  56  75  55 /  80  80  90  50
Carrizozo.......................  75  60  72  60 /  80  80  90  50
Ruidoso.........................  67  55  66  54 /  90  80  90  50
Capulin.........................  71  54  72  51 /  80  70  70  30
Raton...........................  74  54  77  51 /  90  60  70  20
Springer........................  75  56  77  53 /  90  70  70  20
Las Vegas.......................  70  54  71  51 /  90  80  80  30
Clayton.........................  78  62  79  60 /  70  50  30  30
Roy.............................  74  58  73  57 /  90  80  70  30
Conchas.........................  79  63  80  62 /  90  80  70  40
Santa Rosa......................  75  61  77  59 /  90  80  80  40
Tucumcari.......................  82  63  81  63 /  70  60  50  40
Clovis..........................  82  65  79  64 /  40  40  30  30
Portales........................  83  65  82  64 /  40  30  30  30
Fort Sumner.....................  79  64  77  62 /  80  70  70  40
Roswell.........................  80  68  80  67 /  70  60  50  30
Picacho.........................  72  61  72  59 /  90  70  90  40
Elk.............................  68  58  69  56 /  90  80  90  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ207-208-211>225-227>229-
232>234-241.

Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ235>240.

Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for NMZ226.

&&

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...77

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1009 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     Flash Flood      5 WSW Roswell Correctio 33.10N 104.60W
06/24/2025                   Chaves             NM   Trained Spotter

            Water over the northern approach of the Old
            Y-O crossing of the Rio Felix was reported
            from heavy rainfall draining through the
            area.

&&

RJH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
101 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

NMZ206-207-241930-
West Central Highlands NM-West Central Mountains NM-
101 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CIBOLA COUNTY
UNTIL 130 PM MDT...

At 101 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southwest of Acoma Pueblo, or 24 miles south of Grants, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Acoma Pueblo, Skyline-Ganipa, McCartys, San Fidel, Acomita Lake,
  Acomita, North Acomita Village, Seama and Paraje.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 89 and 100.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Heavy rains from severe thunderstorms can produce sudden and
dangerous flows in arroyos, ditches and over low water crossings. Do
not attempt to drive through areas where water covers the roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 3488 10794 3515 10775 3498 10737 3463 10778
      3476 10802
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 220DEG 24KT 3482 10777

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH

16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
142 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

NMZ219-221-242015-
Sandia and Manzano Mountains including Edgewood NM-Middle Rio
Grande Valley including the Albuquerque Metro Area NM-
142 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN VALENCIA...
BERNALILLO AND SOUTHERN SANDOVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

At 142 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
South Valley, or 5 miles south of Albuquerque, moving northeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Albuquerque, southern Rio Rancho, Bernalillo, Corrales, Los
  Ranchos De Albuquerque, Tijeras, North Valley, Sandia Heights,
  South Valley and Sandia Pueblo.

This includes the following highways...
	Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 148 and 181.
	Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 215 and 241.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Heavy rains from severe thunderstorms can produce sudden and
dangerous flows in arroyos, ditches and over low water crossings. Do
not attempt to drive through areas where water covers the roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 3489 10660 3507 10685 3532 10652 3511 10626
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 226DEG 20KT 3503 10666

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH

16

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
232 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     Flash Flood      4 SW Clovis             34.33N 103.26W
06/24/2025                   Curry              NM   Trained Spotter

            Flooded crop fields and water over County
            Road 5.

&&

RJH