Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
233 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 138 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

- Elevated fire weather conditions will persist over parts of
  northwest New Mexico and the upper Rio Grande Valley until
  sunset.

- The coverage of showers and storms with heavy rainfall will
  increase over eastern New Mexico today and Monday then spread to
  much of northern and central New Mexico Monday night through
  Wednesday. A few storms over eastern New Mexico may be strong to
  severe today and Monday.

- While many locations will receive beneficial soaking rainfall,
  isolated locations along and east of the Continental Divide may
  receive heavy rainfall that produces excessive runoff and a high
  risk of flash flooding. Burn scars will be extremely vulnerable
  to flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 138 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

There were only minor changes to the ongoing forecast thru Monday
night. The focus for the rest of today into tonight will be strong
to severe storms developing over eastern NM. Low level moisture
continues to advect northward on deepening southerly flow across the
plains. Storms have already begun firing up along the high terrain
of Lincoln County. This activity will grow downstream into an
unstable airmass with surface-based CAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg over
the Caprock and NM/TX border. Marginal bulk shear values of 20 to
30kt will support some hail so damaging winds are the main threat.
PWATs are climbing closer to 1.5" over southeast NM so the threat
for localized flooding is also possible from cells with very heavy
rainfall this evening. Convective outflow and backing of vertical
wind profiles will help to force moisture farther north and west
toward the central mt chain late tonight. Low stratus may impact
eastern NM overnight along with a few light showers.

An upper level trough entering southern NV Monday and a sprawling
upper level ridge over the eastern U.S. will allow 700-500mb flow to
become more southerly while increasing over NM. Guidance is in good
agreement that ascent will increase while a 55-65kt speed max
ejects northward across western NM. Meanwhile, moist southeast
surface winds over eastern NM will converge along the central mt
chain with drier south-southwest winds over central and western
NM. Bulk shear in this environment is more impressive than today
with similar CAPE values so a few strong storms are likely again.
Convective initiation is expected over the Ruidoso area by late
morning then over more of the central highlands and eastern plains
by the afternoon. Given the high PWAT environment, storms will be
capable of producing very heavy rainfall and there is a high risk
for flash flooding in the Ruidoso area. Outflows from storms over
eastern NM are likely to develop additional storms along the
central mt chain and nearby Rio Grande Valley by late afternoon.
Confidence is not high enough that heavy rainfall will impact
areas as far north as the HPCC burn scar to issue a Flash Flood
Watch at this time. Meanwhile, the focus for excessive rainfall
may shift to southeast NM Monday evening where the storms from
the Ruidoso area build into a large convective complex while
moving southeast across Chaves and Roosevelt counties. Meso-beta
heavy rainfall analysis shows this cluster propagating southeast
at less than <10 mph with localized max QPF amounts from hi-res
ensembles >3". An expansion of the Flash Flood Watch may be
warranted for areas farther east of Ruidoso Monday. The rest of
Monday night will feature scattered showers and storms spreading
north into more areas along and east of the Continental Divide and
the Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 138 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Tuesday is still the day to watch for significant impacts from
widespread showers and storms with torrential rainfall. The latest
WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook has expanded the 'Moderate Risk' for
flash flooding to more of central NM while PWATs are near record
values for late June. Models are also coming into better agreement
that surface-based instability will be place over much of NM with
mid level convergence, positive vorticity advection, and stretching
of the theta-e ridge axis across central NM. Hi-res models are still
showing storms erupting by early afternoon over all the high terrain
before spreading northward and expanding into nearby highlands and
valleys. Conditions will be favorable for stationary and training
storm cells as they latch onto the higher terrain while building
slowly east/southeast before moving northward in the mean flow.
Flash Flood Watches are almost a certainty at this point (>80%
likelihood) for a large area of central NM. There is still a low
chance (<20%) that too much cloud cover, cooler temps, and a lack
of proper timing from forcing aloft limits instability available
for greater coverage of storms with heavy rainfall. There is also
uncertainty with respect to the potential for strong to severe
storms over the region once storms do form. The moisture gradient
over western NM will be closer to more sunshine and the forcing
with the trough approaching from the Great Basin. The Continental
Divide may serve as a more unstable initiation point for storms.
This area of storms is shown by several models merging with storms
farther east into a large area of heavy rainfall over central NM
Tuesday night. Forecast confidence begins to deteriorate during
this period since there are several key features that still need
more time to pin down on guidance, including the arrival of a
warm-core low sliding north from northern MX and timing/placement
of the upstream upper level trough. Nonetheless, the threat for
flash flooding still exists Tuesday night with potential for some
main stem rivers and their tributaries to begin rising within
central NM. The latest NAM12 trends have the heavier QPF focused
along and east of the central mt chain Tuesday night. This can be
seen in the NBM QPF trends over the past few runs as well.

The overall pattern remains relatively unchanged Wednesday so more
storms with heavy rainfall are likely, especially for areas along
and east of the central mt chain. Additional Flash Flood Watches are
very likely (>60%) with more severe to extreme burn scar flooding
possible. Extended models still show the upper level trough washing
out over the southern Rockies Thursday then eventually giving way to
another upper level ridge building over the southwest U.S. Friday.
Remnant moisture over NM will still keep chances for showers and
storms in the picture Thursday and Friday. Storm motions will
become very slow so any additional rainfall on already saturated
soils may keep the flood threat going thru the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Central and western NM will remain under the influence of very
dry, hot, and breezy southwest winds today. SHRA/TS are expected
to fire up along the east slopes of the Sacramento/Capitan Mts
around 1pm then move northeast across eastern NM thru sunset.
Some of these storms may become severe with downburst wind gusts
in excess of 50KT, hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy
rainfall, especially along the Caprock and near the TX/NM border.
SHRA/TS will persist well into the evening around KROW while deep
moisture surges northward into the area. Widespread MVFR low cigs
are possible from near KLVS eastward across much of eastern NM
after midnight. However, confidence on areal coverage of broken
cigs is still low to moderate at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Marginally critical fire weather conditions will persist over far
northwest NM and the upper Rio Grande Valley through sunset. Very
dry and hot conditions will continue Monday across the west however
winds are likely to trend lighter than recent days. The focus will
shift to widespread wetting rainfall this week as a very rich tap
of monsoon moisture surges north into NM. Showers and storms will
increase over eastern NM today then build more into central NM
Monday and Monday night. A few storms will produce torrential
rainfall with footprints >1.5" possible, leading to a high risk of
burn scar flash flooding. The most widespread moderate to heavy
rainfall is expected Tuesday and Wednesday along and east of the
Continental Divide. There is still some uncertainty regarding the
primary focus area for the heaviest rainfall depending on the
timing and depth of an upper level trough over the Great Basin.
Nonetheless, forecast confidence is moderate to high that many
areas south and east of the ABQ metro will pick up 1 to 2" with
locally higher amounts in excess of 4" possible. This will very
helpful for taming current wildfires and mitigating the severity
of any additional fires going forward. However, the burn scar
flash flood threat may become extreme. There is still a threat
for additional slow-moving storms with heavy rainfall Thursday
and perhaps Friday over central and southern areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  52  90  58  87 /   0   0   0  10
Dulce...........................  42  86  48  81 /   0   0  10  30
Cuba............................  50  85  54  77 /   0   5  20  60
Gallup..........................  44  87  47  83 /   0   0   0  20
El Morro........................  47  85  51  79 /   0   0   5  50
Grants..........................  46  89  52  79 /   0   5  10  60
Quemado.........................  49  86  53  81 /   0   0  10  50
Magdalena.......................  57  86  62  78 /   0  20  40  90
Datil...........................  50  85  54  75 /   0  10  20  80
Reserve.........................  48  90  50  84 /   0   0  10  40
Glenwood........................  54  93  56  88 /   0   5  10  40
Chama...........................  42  80  47  75 /   0   0  20  50
Los Alamos......................  57  83  59  75 /   0  20  40  70
Pecos...........................  53  81  57  72 /   5  30  50  90
Cerro/Questa....................  49  81  53  75 /   0  10  20  70
Red River.......................  42  72  45  67 /   0  20  30  70
Angel Fire......................  38  75  44  69 /   0  20  30  80
Taos............................  47  85  52  77 /   0  20  30  60
Mora............................  48  78  51  70 /   5  30  50  80
Espanola........................  55  91  60  82 /   0  20  30  70
Santa Fe........................  56  85  59  75 /   0  30  50  80
Santa Fe Airport................  55  88  60  79 /   0  30  40  80
Albuquerque Foothills...........  62  92  66  81 /   0  20  50  80
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  93  66  83 /   0  20  40  80
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  95  66  85 /   0  20  40  70
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  61  93  66  85 /   0  20  40  70
Belen...........................  60  95  65  86 /   0  20  40  80
Bernalillo......................  61  95  65  84 /   0  20  40  70
Bosque Farms....................  59  94  64  85 /   0  20  40  70
Corrales........................  61  95  66  85 /   0  20  40  70
Los Lunas.......................  60  94  65  85 /   0  20  40  70
Placitas........................  60  90  64  80 /   0  20  40  80
Rio Rancho......................  61  94  65  84 /   0  20  40  70
Socorro.........................  64  96  68  87 /   0  20  40  80
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  55  85  58  75 /   0  30  50  80
Tijeras.........................  57  89  60  78 /   0  30  50  80
Edgewood........................  53  86  57  76 /   0  30  50  80
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  86  56  77 /   0  30  50  90
Clines Corners..................  55  79  56  71 /   5  30  60  90
Mountainair.....................  56  85  58  76 /   0  30  50  90
Gran Quivira....................  56  84  57  77 /   5  40  60  90
Carrizozo.......................  62  85  62  78 /  10  50  60  90
Ruidoso.........................  58  76  56  70 /  20  70  60  90
Capulin.........................  55  75  56  73 /  10  50  40  70
Raton...........................  54  80  55  76 /   5  40  30  70
Springer........................  56  82  58  78 /   5  40  40  80
Las Vegas.......................  53  80  56  72 /  10  30  60  80
Clayton.........................  63  82  61  79 /  20  50  50  40
Roy.............................  60  79  59  74 /  20  40  60  70
Conchas.........................  66  87  65  81 /  20  40  70  70
Santa Rosa......................  63  83  62  78 /  20  40  60  80
Tucumcari.......................  67  84  64  82 /  30  50  70  50
Clovis..........................  67  82  65  83 /  50  60  60  30
Portales........................  66  83  64  84 /  50  70  60  30
Fort Sumner.....................  66  85  64  82 /  30  60  60  60
Roswell.........................  71  87  69  85 /  40  70  60  50
Picacho.........................  63  83  62  77 /  30  70  60  80
Elk.............................  61  82  59  75 /  30  80  70  90

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Monday morning through Wednesday evening for
NMZ226.

&&

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
158 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

NMZ233-239-222030-
Eastern Lincoln County NM-Guadalupe County NM-
158 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND
SOUTHWESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM MDT...

At 158 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 21
miles southeast of Corona, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mainly rural areas of Northeastern Lincoln and Southwestern
  Guadalupe Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3435 10531 3442 10531 3435 10500 3400 10518
      3409 10538 3426 10534 3426 10531
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 194DEG 23KT 3412 10526

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH

Shoemake

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
305 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

NMZ233-222130-
Guadalupe County NM-
305 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE
COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

At 305 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 6 miles northwest of Cuervo to near
Santa Rosa, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Santa Rosa, Cuervo and Santa Rosa Lake State Park.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 263 and 298.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3488 10455 3496 10489 3522 10463 3522 10444
      3516 10416
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 220DEG 9KT 3512 10445 3505 10454 3498 10470

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH

Shoemake

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
318 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

NMZ238-222145-
Chaves County Plains NM-
318 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM MDT...

At 318 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles northwest of Roswell, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mainly rural areas of Central Chaves County.

This includes Highway 285 between Mile Markers 117 and 123.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3335 10472 3345 10489 3351 10489 3374 10472
      3354 10445
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 224DEG 10KT 3349 10475

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH

Shoemake

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