Flash Flood Warning 221, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
139 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds and brief
  heavy downpours will favor southern, central, and eastern parts
  of New Mexico through Thursday and central and southern areas on
  Friday.

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible east of
  the central mountain chain this evening. Then, scattered severe
  thunderstorms are increasingly likely across northeast New
  Mexico Wednesday afternoon and evening with a few producing
  locally heavy rainfall.

- There will be a minor to moderate risk for burn scar flash
  flooding on Wednesday and Thursday with a minor risk for burn
  scar flash flooding across the Ruidoso area burn scars on
  Friday.

- Drier air and high pressure building overhead will help to shut
  down shower and storm chances this weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Higher moisture has begun to move back north into southern and
eastern NM last night and this morning with PWATS now around 0.7 to
0.9 inches across much of these aforementioned areas and close to an
inch across far east central and southeast NM. A shortwave rotating
around the southern periphery of an upper low over the northern and
central Rockies combined with daytime heating is allow showers and
thunderstorms to develop across the southern and central high
terrain. Storms across northern NM will have a slightly quicker
motion to the east at 10 to 20 mph due to being near the stronger
flow at the base of the upper low. Meanwhile, storms along and south
of I-40 will have more of a slow and erratic motion due to lighter
steering currents overhead. In terms of the flash flood risk on the
Ruidoso area burn scars, a minor risk is still expected for this
afternoon through mid this evening as guidance from the HREF keeps
the heaviest rainfall amounts of around 0.75 to 1 inch south and
southeast of the burn scars. Finally, locations along the
Continental Divide in west central NM will be on the edge of the
higher moisture, so any showers and thunderstorms that try to
develop across this area of the state will likely be high based
resulting in little to no precipitation and gusty and erratic winds.
Any shower and thunderstorm activity will taper off around to after
sunset with lingering midlevel clouds across southern and eastern
areas overnight.

The upper low over the northern and central Rockies today pivots
east into the northern and central Great Plains Wednesday with
another shortwave diving south across the northern and central
Rockies on the backside of the upper low circulation. At the
surface, a backdoor front will be trying to enter far northeast NM,
including Colfax and Union County. With this, shower and
thunderstorm coverage will favor southern and eastern areas where
PWATS will range from around 0.7 to 1.1 inches. Northwest flow will
keep the northwest corner of the state mostly dry with PWATS around
0.3 to 0.4 inches across this part of the state. The highest
coverage of storms will be across the southern high terrain, where
the best moisture will reside, and northeast NM, along the backdoor
front. The backdoor front along with a upper level jet at the base
of the upper low will help to increase bulk shear values to 30 to 45
kts across the northeast plains allowing storms coming off the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains to grow upscale and potentially organize
into strong to severe storms. For that reason, SPC has introduced a
marginal risk for severe storms for this part of the state with the
main hazards being isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Convection across northeast NM could linger through early Thursday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Convection across eastern CO and northeast NM Wednesday evening and
night will help push the backdoor front through much of eastern NM
come Thursday morning with a light east wind possible across the ABQ
Metro around sunrise. The backdoor front will help cool highs to 5
to 10 degrees below average across northeast and east central NM.
Upslope flow behind the backdoor front and PWAT values around 0.8 to
1 inch will set the stage for more shower and thunderstorm
development along the central mountain chain midday Thursday.
Northwest flow between the upper level ridge over NV/UT/AZ and the
upper low over the northern and central Great Plains will help
direct storms southeast into the eastern highlands and plains during
the afternoon and evening hours. Across western and central NM, dry
northwest flow on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge
will help keep shower and thunderstorm activity confined to the
southwest mountains and nearby lower elevations. Convection across
the central mountain chain Thursday could result in a moderate east
canyon wind for the ABQ Metro Thursday evening into Thursday night.

Heading into Friday, the upper level ridge slides east over the
state. However, remnant moisture from what is currently Mario in the
eastern Pacific will sling across southern CA and NV, AZ, and
central and southern NM helping to result in shower and thunderstorm
development across these areas. The highest shower and thunderstorm
coverage will favor the southwest and south central mountains. A
drying trend is expected for the weekend as an upper high over
Mexico strengthens and builds northward into the desert SW. Some
lingering moisture will result in some isolated to scattered shower
and thunderstorm development across the higher terrain on Saturday
before dry northwest flow helps reduce shower and thunderstorm
coverage to more of an isolated nature across the southern higher
terrain on Sunday. The upper high will continue to build north to
over the Great Basin pivoting east to over the Four Corners and
central Rockies early next week. This will help to basically shut
down any shower and thunderstorm activity across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the
central and southern higher terrain this afternoon with a general
drift to the east. Shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon
and evening will favor southern and eastern areas. PROB30s have been
included for central and southern TAF sites. The risk for TAF sites
like KSAF, KABQ, and KAEG will be more in the way of gusty and
erratic winds rather than rainfall. A few storms across southern and
eastern NM could become strong to severe and produce large hail and
damaging wind gusts of up to 50 kts. Showers and storms will slowly
taper off after sunset with lingering midlevel clouds favoring
southern and eastern areas overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025

No critical fire weather conditions expected through the forecast
period. Showers and thunderstorms favoring southern and eastern
areas during the afternoon and evening hours through Thursday with
some drier activity providing gusty and erratic winds across central
NM along the Continental Divide. A few storms across northeast NM
Wednesday afternoon and evening could become strong to severe with
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Moisture from the remnants of
Tropical Storm Mario in the eastern Pacific will keep a higher
coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the central and
southern higher terrain on Friday with the southwest mountains being
the most favored. A building area of high pressure along with drier
air helps to shut down shower and thunderstorm coverage this weekend
into early next week. High temperatures will be right around average
across the region, expect for northeast and east central areas being
5 to 10 degrees below average on Thursday behind a backdoor front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  81  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  39  78  35  77 /  10  10   0   5
Cuba............................  48  77  45  77 /  20  20   5  10
Gallup..........................  48  81  44  80 /   5   5   0   5
El Morro........................  49  77  47  77 /  20  20   5  10
Grants..........................  49  81  46  80 /  20  20   5  20
Quemado.........................  51  78  48  78 /  30  20   5  20
Magdalena.......................  55  76  53  75 /  40  50  10  30
Datil...........................  50  75  48  75 /  40  50  10  30
Reserve.........................  51  83  50  83 /  40  40  10  30
Glenwood........................  55  86  55  85 /  40  50  20  40
Chama...........................  41  72  38  72 /  20  20   5  10
Los Alamos......................  53  75  50  73 /  20  20  10  20
Pecos...........................  49  76  47  73 /  30  30  20  30
Cerro/Questa....................  47  75  43  72 /  20  30  20  20
Red River.......................  39  65  35  62 /  20  40  30  30
Angel Fire......................  35  70  32  67 /  20  40  20  30
Taos............................  45  77  41  75 /  20  20  20  20
Mora............................  45  73  42  69 /  20  40  30  40
Espanola........................  51  81  47  80 /  30  20  10  20
Santa Fe........................  53  77  51  75 /  20  20  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  50  80  48  77 /  20  20  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  83  58  81 /  30  30  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  85  58  82 /  20  20  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  56  86  56  84 /  20  20  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  58  85  56  82 /  20  20  10  10
Belen...........................  56  85  54  83 /  30  20  10  20
Bernalillo......................  57  86  55  84 /  20  20  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  55  85  53  83 /  20  20  10  20
Corrales........................  58  86  56  85 /  20  20  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  56  85  54  83 /  20  20  10  20
Placitas........................  56  81  54  80 /  20  20  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  58  85  56  83 /  20  20  10  10
Socorro.........................  60  85  58  85 /  30  40  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  52  76  49  74 /  30  30  10  20
Tijeras.........................  53  79  51  78 /  30  30  10  20
Edgewood........................  49  80  47  77 /  30  30  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  80  46  77 /  30  30  20  30
Clines Corners..................  50  75  48  71 /  30  30  20  30
Mountainair.....................  52  78  48  76 /  30  40  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  52  76  50  75 /  30  50  30  40
Carrizozo.......................  57  79  56  78 /  20  60  30  50
Ruidoso.........................  52  71  52  69 /  10  70  30  60
Capulin.........................  46  72  45  66 /  30  40  70  30
Raton...........................  46  76  46  70 /  20  40  50  30
Springer........................  48  79  48  73 /  20  30  40  30
Las Vegas.......................  48  76  46  70 /  30  40  30  40
Clayton.........................  55  79  53  72 /  30  30  70  20
Roy.............................  52  77  49  71 /  20  30  60  30
Conchas.........................  58  84  55  77 /  20  40  60  20
Santa Rosa......................  56  81  53  75 /  30  50  50  30
Tucumcari.......................  58  81  53  75 /  20  40  60  20
Clovis..........................  61  84  59  80 /  10  40  50  40
Portales........................  61  85  59  82 /   5  40  40  40
Fort Sumner.....................  60  84  57  80 /  10  40  40  30
Roswell.........................  61  86  61  84 /   5  30  20  30
Picacho.........................  55  81  55  78 /  10  60  20  50
Elk.............................  53  79  53  77 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
221 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025

NMZ226-162045-
South Central Mountains NM-
221 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM MDT...

At 221 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lincoln, or 18 miles northeast of Ruidoso, and is stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Ruidoso, Lincoln, Lincoln State Monument and Fort Stanton.

This includes Highway 380 between Mile Markers 89 and 102.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3359 10547 3353 10527 3350 10527 3349 10528
      3347 10528 3347 10531 3348 10531 3346 10532
      3344 10534 3343 10534 3340 10533 3348 10555
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 0DEG 0KT 3348 10536

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
237 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025

NMZ228-229-162115-
Northeast Highlands NM-Far Northeast Highlands NM-
237 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MORA AND NORTH
CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

At 237 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Valmora, or 11 miles southwest of Wagon Mound,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Wagon Mound, Valmora and Shoemaker.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 370 and 388.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 10496 3590 10492 3589 10490 3588 10489
      3589 10488 3591 10488 3592 10489 3593 10489
      3595 10487 3595 10485 3598 10484 3602 10480
      3601 10442 3567 10484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 324DEG 13KT 3588 10484

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
251 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025

NMZ229-162115-
Northeast Highlands NM-
251 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

At 251 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Las Vegas, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Las Vegas and Storrie Lake State Park.

This includes the following highways...
	Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 343 and 352.
	State Road 104 between Mile Markers 1 and 8.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3559 10529 3569 10521 3562 10502 3550 10517
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 292DEG 3KT 3561 10520

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH

Guyer

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