Flash Flood Warning 101, NWS Albuquerque, NM

181 
WGUS75 KABQ 172347
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
547 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

NMC047-180130-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0101.000000T0000Z-250718T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Miguel NM-
547 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM MDT THIS 
EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

At 547 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in 
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tererro and Cowles.

This includes State Road 63 between Mile Markers 8 and 25.

Flash flooding is also likely along Forest Service Roads 646, 223, 
and 122. Those camping in the area should seek higher ground!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly or mountainous terrain there are numerous low water 
crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not 
attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 10567 3587 10552 3580 10553 3576 10556
      3572 10556 3566 10563 3560 10566 3561 10570
      3565 10572 3587 10572

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

34

462 
WGUS75 KABQ 180125
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
725 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

NMC047-180135-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0101.000000T0000Z-250718T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Miguel NM-
725 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR 
NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended, though a brief thunderstorm will pass over 
the area just northwest of Cowles. Flash flooding is no longer 
expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any remaining 
road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1200 AM MDT for portions of 
east central, north central, and northeast New Mexico.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 10567 3587 10552 3580 10553 3576 10556
      3572 10556 3566 10563 3560 10566 3561 10570
      3565 10572 3587 10572

$$

34

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
207 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 202 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

- Numerous showers and storms today and Friday will increase the
  risk of flash flooding, particularly over recent burn scars and
  in northeastern New Mexico.

- Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and dangerous lightning could
  accompany any storms each day and a few storms may become severe
  in the northeast this afternoon and evening.

- A low to moderate risk of burn scar of flash flooding will
  persist into the early and middle part of next week despite a
  downtick in storm coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Thunderstorms are already underway over the Sangre De Cristo
Mountains and Sacramento Mountains this afternoon, where there is
currently a Flood Watch in effect and a Flash Flood Warning has
already been issued. Storm activity for the Ruidoso area will be
mainly during the middle part of the afternoon, with shower activity
tapering off before sunset. Low level upslope flow along eastern New
Mexico will continue to provide rich moisture for storm development
over the high terrain. The low clouds over eastern New Mexico from
this morning have all but eroded, with daytime heating quickly
destabilizing the environment. RAP model soundings indicate
precipitable water content of about 1.2 inches and MUCAPE between
1000 and 2000 J/Kg, allowing for very efficient rainfall rates of of
1 to 2 inches per hour. As a result there is high confidence for
life threatening impacts for burn scar flash flooding.

Conditions in northeast New Mexico are not only also primed for
heavy and efficient rainfall, but there is also a Marginal risk of
severe weather for areas along the Sangres and east towards the
Texas-New Mexico border. Storms are already producing rainfall rate
of half an inch to an inch per hour, which may lead to rapid rises
in streams and arroyos and flooding over low water crossings. Storms
over the Sangre De Cristo Mountains look to linger a little bit
later into the afternoon before moving off to the east at around
sunset. Lingering cloud cover over Colfax, Union, and Harding
counties may limit instability in the environment, but MUCAPE may
still reach as high as 3000 J/kg. With modest bulk shear of around
20 kts, these storms may get strong enough to produce large and
damaging hail and strong wind gusts.Thunderstorms will continue east
to the Texas border through midnight, which is when the Flood Watch
expires. Have opted to include Quay county in the watch for tonight
due to antecedent rainfall from last night (estimated between 2 and
5 inches) saturating the soils and up to another is inch possible
this evening. Overall most of northeast New Mexico will see between
0.25 and 0.5 inches of rainfall, but locally heavy amounts of 1 to 2
inches will create swift rises in stream and arroyos.

Tomorrow also looks to be a concerning day for the Ruidoso burn
scars area. New Mexico will find itself in between a strengthening
595 dm H5 high over the Texas Panhandle and a low moving north over
Baja California. This will once again provide a corridor for rich
moisture from both gulfs to funnel up into southern New Mexico. The
positioning of the low to the west may serve to usher in greater
Pacific moisture into the region, but it may also dry out the
environment with some WNW flow. OVerall, PWATs in southern New
Mexico look to once again be in the 1.1 to 1.4 range, with moist
upslope flow converging over the Sacramento Mountains. Storm
activity will focus over the begging and middle part of the
afternoon. Hi-res model guidance is in pretty good agreement that
the Ruidoso area may get between 0.25 and 0.75 inches of rain. More
concerning , 3 hour QPF maxes from the HREF and NBM have up to 2
inches for areas in and around the burn scar, which may create
dangerous flooding along the Rio Ruidoso. Drier westerly flow looks
to stymie convection for areas north of I-40 in western New Mexico.
Northeast New Mexico will see some scattered to numerous showers,
but coverage and amounts looks to be much less than Thursday, so
flood concerns are low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Heading into the weekend, the H5 high will continue to linger around
the TX-NM border at around 593 to 595 dm, raising temperatures in
the eastern plains to the upper 90s and near 100 for Roswell . The
low over Baja looks to finally eject into the Great Basin, shifting
winds more westerly throughout the region and brining in some drier
conditions, particularly for eastern New Mexico. Moist southerly
flow will continue to keep rain chances above 50% for southern areas
in the Gila and Sacramento Mountains. The Gila may benefit the most
form the Pacific moisture, but NE storm motions may be able to take
some showers into west-central and north central New Mexico.

PWATs heading into next week look to remain near normal for the Land
of Enchantment, and recent ensemble runs are showing that conditions
may not be drying out as much as previously thought. Monsoonal
moisture will continue to push north across New Mexico heading into
the middle of the week, creating scattered to numerous
thunderstorms, particularly for southern areas. Bumped up Pops a bit
for eastern areas during the afternoons to account for a mention of
storms due to recent guidance trends. Temperatures throughout the
period will be about average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Thunderstorms are currently ongoing throughout most of New Mexico.
There is a mention of thunder and gusty and erratic winds for each
TAF site this afternoon. Storm activity should taper off at most
sites at around sunset, but activity looks to persist into the
evening at KTCC. All sites are expected to remain at VFR throughout
the period, but some lower ceilings near MVFR criteria could roll in
overnight for KLVS and KTCC. Mid level clouds will persist over
most areas throughout the evening. Winds will become light and
variable over night before winds begin to pickup from the SW late
tomorrow morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The threat of rapid fire spread will be minimal throughout the
period. Rich monsoonal moisture will create scattered to numerous
thunderstorms around the region for the next few days. Areas along
and east of the central mountain chain will see 0.25 to an inch of
rainfall over the next couple of afternoons. Some dryer westerly
flow may intrude into the region early this weekend, hindering
chances for storms in northern and central New Mexico. New
lighting starts will be possible with storms in western areas
where ERCs are still in the 75th and 90th percentiles. Northern
New Mexico may see some drier conditions early next week, but near
average monsoonal moisture will once again increase chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures look to remain near
average throughout the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66  91  66  91 /  50  20  30  20
Dulce...........................  50  88  50  89 /  70  50  40  60
Cuba............................  57  85  59  85 /  70  50  50  60
Gallup..........................  53  87  56  85 /  50  40  40  50
El Morro........................  55  83  57  82 /  70  60  60  80
Grants..........................  55  88  58  86 /  70  60  50  70
Quemado.........................  56  83  60  82 /  70  70  70  90
Magdalena.......................  63  84  63  85 /  60  60  60  80
Datil...........................  55  82  58  81 /  60  80  60  90
Reserve.........................  54  90  56  87 /  50  70  60  90
Glenwood........................  58  94  61  93 /  40  70  50  90
Chama...........................  48  81  50  82 /  70  60  40  70
Los Alamos......................  60  81  62  83 /  70  50  40  70
Pecos...........................  57  83  59  85 /  60  60  30  60
Cerro/Questa....................  54  83  56  84 /  70  60  30  70
Red River.......................  45  74  47  74 /  70  70  30  80
Angel Fire......................  43  77  43  77 /  60  70  20  70
Taos............................  54  85  55  86 /  70  50  30  60
Mora............................  50  81  52  82 /  70  60  20  70
Espanola........................  61  91  62  92 /  70  40  30  50
Santa Fe........................  61  85  63  86 /  60  50  30  60
Santa Fe Airport................  60  88  61  90 /  60  40  30  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  91  70  92 /  70  50  50  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  93  68  94 /  70  40  40  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  95  68  96 /  60  40  40  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  94  69  94 /  70  40  40  50
Belen...........................  65  94  65  95 /  60  40  40  40
Bernalillo......................  66  94  68  95 /  70  40  40  50
Bosque Farms....................  64  94  65  95 /  60  40  40  40
Corrales........................  67  95  68  95 /  70  40  40  50
Los Lunas.......................  66  94  66  95 /  60  40  40  40
Placitas........................  64  90  66  91 /  60  40  40  50
Rio Rancho......................  66  94  68  95 /  70  40  40  50
Socorro.........................  68  95  68  95 /  60  50  50  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  86  61  87 /  60  50  40  60
Tijeras.........................  61  86  62  87 /  70  50  40  60
Edgewood........................  56  87  58  87 /  60  50  30  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  88  57  88 /  50  50  30  50
Clines Corners..................  57  82  59  82 /  50  50  20  40
Mountainair.....................  57  86  60  87 /  60  60  40  60
Gran Quivira....................  58  85  60  86 /  60  60  40  60
Carrizozo.......................  65  87  64  89 /  40  60  40  50
Ruidoso.........................  58  78  58  81 /  30  80  30  60
Capulin.........................  54  83  56  84 /  70  40  10  50
Raton...........................  53  86  55  87 /  70  50  10  60
Springer........................  55  89  57  89 /  70  40  10  50
Las Vegas.......................  55  85  57  86 /  60  50  20  50
Clayton.........................  62  89  66  92 /  60  10   5  10
Roy.............................  59  87  61  89 /  70  20  10  20
Conchas.........................  65  94  68  96 /  60  20   5  10
Santa Rosa......................  63  90  65  92 /  50  20  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  63  92  66  94 /  60  10   5   0
Clovis..........................  67  94  68  96 /  40   5   0   0
Portales........................  67  95  68  97 /  40   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  67  94  68  95 /  40  10   5   5
Roswell.........................  71  96  70  98 /  30  20   5   5
Picacho.........................  63  88  63  90 /  30  50  20  20
Elk.............................  61  86  60  88 /  30  60  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ214-215-227>232-
234.

Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
NMZ226.

&&

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
251 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

NMZ222-223-172115-
Estancia Valley NM-Central Highlands NM-
251 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TORRANCE COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

At 251 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cedarvale, or 14 miles northwest of Corona, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Cedarvale.

This includes Highway 60 between Mile Markers 227 and 229.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3442 10587 3463 10591 3459 10550 3436 10563
      3435 10583 3436 10584 3437 10586
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 185DEG 13KT 3442 10574

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Shoemake

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
314 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

NMZ222-223-172145-
Estancia Valley NM-Central Highlands NM-
314 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TORRANCE COUNTY
UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

At 314 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Cedarvale, or 18 miles north of Corona, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Cedarvale.

This includes Highway 60 between Mile Markers 234 and 242.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3443 10587 3473 10579 3458 10542 3433 10567
      3442 10587
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 207DEG 14KT 3449 10570

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Shoemake

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
355 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

NMZ223-233-172230-
Guadalupe County NM-Central Highlands NM-
355 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN TORRANCE...
NORTHWESTERN GUADALUPE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES UNTIL
430 PM MDT...

At 355 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles south of Villanueva State Park, or 28 miles north of Vaughn,
moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mainly rural areas of Northeastern Torrance, Northwestern
  Guadalupe and Southwestern San Miguel Counties.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 227 and 241.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3521 10529 3519 10516 3490 10528 3495 10551
      3525 10550
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 190DEG 15KT 3499 10538

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Shoemake

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
418 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

NMZ215-228-172245-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains NM-Far Northeast Highlands
NM-
418 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN COLFAX
AND EASTERN MORA COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 418 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from near Springer to 9 miles north of
Valmora, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Springer and Wagon Mound.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 375 and 423.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3590 10512 3651 10464 3648 10432 3646 10432
      3644 10428 3643 10428 3622 10442 3622 10443
      3620 10443 3620 10444 3619 10444 3611 10449
      3585 10474
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 223DEG 11KT 3639 10455 3618 10469 3594 10497

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Shoemake

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
430 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

NMZ233-237>239-172300-
Guadalupe County NM-Eastern Lincoln County NM-Chaves County
Plains NM-De Baca County NM-
430 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN...
SOUTHWESTERN DE BACA...SOUTHERN GUADALUPE AND NORTHWESTERN CHAVES
COUNTIES UNTIL 5 PM MDT...

At 430 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Ramon, or 36 miles southeast of Vaughn, moving north
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Ramon.

This includes Highway 285 between Mile Markers 156 and 193.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3435 10507 3447 10509 3440 10464 3397 10472
      3385 10496 3406 10503
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 193DEG 24KT 3415 10489

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Shoemake

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
433 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

NMZ207-219-172300-
West Central Highlands NM-Middle Rio Grande Valley including the
Albuquerque Metro Area NM-
433 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL
VALENCIA...BERNALILLO...SOUTHERN SANDOVAL AND EASTERN CIBOLA
COUNTIES UNTIL 5 PM MDT...

At 433 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 18 miles west of Paradise Hills to 8
miles west of Los Lunas, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Northwestern Albuquerque, Los Lunas, Los Chaves and Tohajiilee.

This includes the following highways...
	Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 133 and 149.
	Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 198 and 202.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3496 10707 3515 10712 3522 10688 3501 10675
      3473 10677 3470 10699
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 257DEG 13KT 3510 10699 3493 10694 3480 10690

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Shoemake