Winter Storm Warning 8, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
155 PM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty south to southwest winds will occur over
much of the region though Friday and linger into Saturday in Mohave
County ahead of a large low pressure system moving down the West
Coast. The system will bring widespread precipitation across our
region Saturday and Saturday night, followed by showery weather
Sunday and Monday. A drying and warming trend develops going into
the middle of next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Saturday night.

South-southwest winds gusting over 40 mph primarily during the
afternoon and evening hours will be the main impact through Friday
evening across most of the Mojave Desert region as the approaching
system digs from the Pacific Northwest to near the central
California Coast. The Wind Advisory already in effect for Mojave
Desert zones/Spring Mountains has been extended through 11 PM Friday
evening along with expanding over southern San Bernardino County
Friday afternoon and evening. Gusty winds over 40 mph will then
focus over Mohave County and much of Arizona on Saturday as the
leading edge of the closed low moves inland and its center nears
Point Conception.

A vort max with considerable moisture could be seen on water vapor
imagery diving into the west side of the Pacific Northwest low and
this, along with additional upstream energy, will serve to dig the
low and infuse it with fuel for precipitation. Recent model
ensembles remain in good agreement with the overall track and
progression of the system and depict a band of precipitation
becoming oriented north-south which slowly progesses across
southeast California and southern Nevada Saturday morning through
the afternoon, then over northwest Arizona Saturday evening and
overnight. This may favor about a 6-9 hour period of rainfall for
most sites as it traverses our region from west to east. The latest
NBM timing indicates the precipitation band should mostly move east
of Mohave County by about 12Z Sunday. Timing could change a little,
but the latest trends over the past day or two appear to be speeding
up its progreession a little. Rainfall looks to be of minor impact
with amounts generally 0.25-0.5" across southeast California and
southern Nevada and 0.5-0.75" across Mohave County.

The mountains will intercept more precipitation and the potential
for significant storm total snow amounts in the Spring Mountains is
still high with the probability of 8" or more about 80% and 12" or
more about 50%. The Winter Storm Watch remains in effect there
Saturday afternoon and evening. The mountains of Inyo County aside
from the eastern Sierra and also the mountains of south central
Nevada will likely see at least a few inches of snow and travel
impacts could be a concern for places like Lida Summit and Westgard
Pass on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday.

Cool and showery weather will encompass most of the region Sunday
and Sunday night as the broad circulation slowly moves overhead.
Snow levels will hold around 5000-5500 feet Sunday and Sunday night
resulting in occasional snow showers in the mountains with
accumulations possible. The system gradually opens up into a
positive tilt trough Monday and moves toward eastern Arizona/New
Mexico Monday night followed by a fairly amplified ridge moving over
the Great Basin Tuesday and Wednesday for dry conditions and a
warming trend. However, this looks to be short lived as yet another
large trough is depicted by the enembles to drop down from the
northwest and bring at least gusty southwest winds Thursday
preceding another round of cool and unsettled weather going into the
weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Gusty southwest winds expected through
the TAF period. Gust speeds this afternoon will peak between 30 and
35 kts. Gusts will subside in both magnitude and frequency overnight
enough to remove them from the prevailing TAF after 08Z. Frequent
gusts will return late-morning on Friday with speeds between 25 and
30 kts. FEW-SCT aoa 20 kft expected through the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and
southeastern California...Gusty southwest winds expected for the Las
Vegas Valley through Friday with speeds between 30 and 35 kts. KBIH
will encounter gusty west downslope winds this afternoon before
becoming north-northwesterly overnight. KDAG will experience gusty
west winds with speeds between 30 and 35 kts through Friday. KEED
and IFP will experience gusty south-southwest winds this afternoon
and Friday afternoon with speeds between 20 and 25 kts. FEW-SCT aoa
20 kft expected through the TAF period.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Adair
AVIATION...Varian

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