Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
117 PM PDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy conditions will continue across western
areas through the weekend while isolated to scattered thunderstorms
persist across Northwest Arizona and Lincoln County. Drier air
will sweep in Monday and Tuesday allowing temperatures to climb
and storms to diminish across all but eastern Mohave County.
Storm chances will creep back west midweek with a gradual cooling
trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday evening.

This mornings round of thunderstorm activity which brought fairly
widespread rainfall to Lincoln County has now lifted north to be
located near the Salt Lake City metro. Meanwhile, continued
south-southwesterly flow aloft and afternoon destabilization has
allowed for renewed storm development across northern Mohave
County and a few isolated storms developing in Lincoln County.
Still expecting fairly robust storms to impact these areas through
the afternoon hours, with training storms a concern in northern
Mohave County where a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. Deep
layer shear is trending weaker from this morning, but still is
sufficient for some degree of storm organization, with gusty
winds and hail a possibility. While a stray storm could still develop
as far south and west as Las Vegas, the better chances will be
confined to areas north and east of the metro.

Tomorrow, storm chances will tend to focus across the Arizona
Strip, where additional locally heavy rainfall is possible with a
tendency for storm training. Elsewhere, drier air will begin to
work in from the west and limit storm development north and west
of Arizona.

Drier air will continue to progressively invade the region Monday
and Tuesday, with storm chances becoming confined to the eastern
fringes of Mohave County. As the vertical profile dries out,
temperatures will begin to climb Monday and Tuesday. Heat risk
briefly climbs into the high territory across some of the lower
elevations Tuesday, though the risk is brief as heat risk drops
back down by Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday.

The region will remain sandwiched between West Coast/Great Basin
troughing and the monsoonal high over the New Mexico. This will
keep relatively moist and monsoonal conditions going across our
eastern zones, while western areas remain dry and breezy. A
shortwave may lift around the monsoon flow Wednesday and trigger a
brief push of moisture westward into the eastern Mojave Desert,
similar to the general pattern observed this weekend. NBM PoPs do
expand west on Wednesday and Thursday as this feature develops and
troughing to our north and west deepens. Thereafter, guidance
diverges on how to handle the western US trough, either swinging
it through the Great Basin or digging it south along the
California coast. Regardless, drier conditions will likely spread
eastward with cooler than normal temperatures expected by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...South to southwest winds are expected
this afternoon and early evening with gusts over 25KT likely (80%
chance), especially around 21Z. Winds will diminish after sunset
with wind speeds dropping below 8KT after 03Z then remaining under
8KT through the night. A repeat in wind patterns is expected Sunday
with light winds in the morning become southeast midmorning before
turning south-southwest and increasing after 20Z. Winds Sunday
afternoon will not be as strong as today with gusts remaining under
25KT. No thunderstorm impacts are expected at the terminals through
the period with convection this afternoon centered over Lincoln
County through southwest Utah and northwest Arizona. Sunday
afternoon convection will develop even further east mainly in
western Arizona.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy south to southwest winds are expected again this
afternoon across much of the region. Gusts 20-30KT expected this
afternoon in many locations. Another round of convection is to
develop this afternoon across Lincoln County through southwest Utah
and northwest Arizona. Any thunderstorms that develop would bring
the risk of sudden gusty winds, lightning, small hail, heavy rain,
and CIGs to 8kft-10kft. Winds as well as thunderstorm chances will
decrease tonight after sunset with dry conditions and diurnal wind
patterns expected overnight. Light winds will continue through
Sunday morning before south winds increase Sunday afternoon, though
winds on Sunday should be lighter than winds today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and breezy conditions continue across our
western zones with critical fire conditions expected today and
Sunday across Esmeralda and Nye Counties. Conditions will be more
moist further east with isolated thunderstorm activity in Lincoln
and Mohave Counties through the weekend. Drier air will push in
Monday and Tuesday with storm chances becoming limited to
northwest Arizona.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Nickerson

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