Wind Advisory 3, NWS Tucson, AZ

526 
WWUS75 KTWC 060947
NPWTWC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
247 AM MST Tue Feb 6 2024

AZZ502>509-511>515-070300-
/O.CON.KTWC.WI.Y.0003.240206T1700Z-240207T0300Z/
Tohono O'odham Nation-Upper Santa Cruz River Valley/Altar Valley-
Tucson Metro Area-South Central Pinal County-
Southeast Pinal County-Upper San Pedro River Valley-
Eastern Cochise County below 5000 feet-Upper Gila River Valley-
Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains-Chiricahua Mountains-
Dragoon and Mule and Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains-
Catalina and Rincon Mountains-Baboquivari Mountains-
Including the cities of Sells, Nogales, Tucson, Green Valley, 
Marana, Vail, Picacho Peak State Park, Mammoth, Oracle, 
Sierra Vista, Benson, Willcox, Douglas, Mount Graham, 
Chiricahua NM, Bisbee, Canelo Hills, Madera Canyon, Mount Lemmon,
and Summerhaven
247 AM MST Tue Feb 6 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Arizona.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts may produce localized blowing dust
  capable of reducing visibility below a mile at times. Strong
  crosswinds on high-profile vehicles may result in difficult
  driving conditions especially along Highway 86 southwest of
  Tucson, Interstate-19 south of Tucson into Santa Cruz county, 
  and Interstate-10 east of Tucson into Cochise county.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

526 
WWUS75 KTWC 062059
NPWTWC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
159 PM MST Tue Feb 6 2024

AZZ502>509-511>515-070300-
/O.CON.KTWC.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240207T0300Z/
Tohono O'odham Nation-Upper Santa Cruz River Valley/Altar Valley-
Tucson Metro Area-South Central Pinal County-
Southeast Pinal County-Upper San Pedro River Valley-
Eastern Cochise County below 5000 feet-Upper Gila River Valley-
Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains-Chiricahua Mountains-
Dragoon and Mule and Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains-
Catalina and Rincon Mountains-Baboquivari Mountains-
Including the cities of Sells, Nogales, Tucson, Green Valley, 
Marana, Vail, Picacho Peak State Park, Mammoth, Oracle, 
Sierra Vista, Benson, Willcox, Douglas, Mount Graham, 
Chiricahua NM, Bisbee, Canelo Hills, Madera Canyon, Mount Lemmon,
and Summerhaven
159 PM MST Tue Feb 6 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph expected. 
  Isolated wind gusts in excess of 55 mph are possible through the 
  remainder of the afternoon. 

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Arizona.

* WHEN...Through 8 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts may produce localized blowing dust 
  capable of reducing visibility below a mile at times. Strong 
  crosswinds on high-profile vehicles may result in difficult driving
  conditions especially along Highway 86 southwest of Tucson, 
  Interstate-19 south of Tucson into Santa Cruz county, and 
  Interstate-10 east of Tucson into Cochise county.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

638 
WWUS75 KTWC 070302
NPWTWC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
802 PM MST Tue Feb 6 2024

AZZ502>509-511>515-070415-
/O.EXP.KTWC.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240207T0300Z/
Tohono O'odham Nation-Upper Santa Cruz River Valley/Altar Valley-
Tucson Metro Area-South Central Pinal County-
Southeast Pinal County-Upper San Pedro River Valley-
Eastern Cochise County below 5000 feet-Upper Gila River Valley-
Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains-Chiricahua Mountains-
Dragoon and Mule and Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains-
Catalina and Rincon Mountains-Baboquivari Mountains-
Including the cities of Sells, Nogales, Tucson, Green Valley, 
Marana, Vail, Picacho Peak State Park, Mammoth, Oracle, 
Sierra Vista, Benson, Willcox, Douglas, Mount Graham, 
Chiricahua NM, Bisbee, Canelo Hills, Madera Canyon, Mount Lemmon,
and Summerhaven
802 PM MST Tue Feb 6 2024

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

The strongest winds have subsided, thus the Wind Advisory has been
allowed to expire. However, gusty winds locally in excess of 30
mph will continue overnight. 

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
303 AM MST Mon Feb 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry today before a winter system moving
through the region on Tuesday through Wednesday. It will bring
windy conditions, widespread rain showers, and mountain snow.
Cooler temperatures will stick around later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A warm and dry day is in store for Southeast Arizona
today before an impactful winter storm moving in on Tuesday. This
winter storm will bring several different impacts: windy
conditions, valley rain showers, mountain snow, and cooler
temperatures.

The latest RAP analysis shows a low pressure center off the coast
of Northern California with strong jet of values over 120 knots.
Ensemble models show the jet core moving southeast to over central
Arizona. This system is nicely stacked with the atmospheric levels
(250mb, 500mb, and 700mb) to help translate those strong wind
speeds to those lower levels. By Tuesday, the 700mb wind core will
have value of 50 knots based on the ensemble model mean!This sets
up for a large swath of Southeast Arizona to experience strong
winds during the daytime. Currently there are over 50% chance of
experiencing 30 mph (sustained from the HREF) or higher for areas
south and west of Tucson. And a 40% chance of exceeding 40 mph
between I-19 and HWY 86. It will be windy through most of the day
and right before the frontal passage that will occur later in the
day.

The precipitable water content from the ensemble models have
consistently shown values of 0.6-0.7 inches. This is still above
the 90th percentile for the region and it will bring widespread
chances for the valley rain. The rain will be mainly light to at
time moderate with valley rainfall totals of 0.3 to 1.25 inches
for the storm event (Tuesday through early Thursday morning. There
could be moments of heavier rainfall from a thunderstorm on
Wednesday. The instability is on the low end, but there is enough
dynamics to get a thunderstorm or two going. Or even some rumbles.
The better thunderstorm chances will be north of Tucson due to
better dynamics and lift will be.

With the moisture already moving into the region, the colder air
will slowly work its way into the mix. The 700mb temperatures will
stay slightly above freezing and then rapidly drop by late
Wednesday to bring the snow machine. With the perpendicular 700mb
flow against the mountains, the snow process will become more
efficient to bring snow starting at 8000 feet on Tuesday and
bottoming near 5,500 feet by Wednesday afternoon. The White
Mountains will see snow amounts up to 20 inches at the peaks
whereas Mt Lemmon and Mt Graham could see up to 12 inches at the
top. With those snow amounts, we have issued a Winter Storm
Warning for the White Mountains and Winter Weather Advisory for
the Catalina, Galiuro, Pinaleno, and Rincon Mountains for Tuesday
5PM until 5 PM Wednesday.

The system will bring cooler than normal temperatures staring
Wednesday and staying around through the rest of the week. Plus, the
chances for rain showers and mountain snow will stick around
through the end of the week. Ensemble models show a series of
shortwave troughs coming around the low pressure center to bring
those elevated chances for showers. Those rain and snow amounts
will be significant lower than the Tuesday/Wednesday storm because
of the atmospheric moisture will push out from the low pressure
center moving eastward and as well as eroding away from dryer air
moving behind the system.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 06/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at or around 18-20k feet AGL through most of the
forecast period. Another SCT-BKN cloud layer around 15k feet AGL
moving into the region after 06/06Z. Surface winds light and
diurnal in this early morning and then gradual increasing to 10-15
kts and turns to the southeast after 05/15Z through 06/03Z. Then
shifting to the south through the end of the forecast period.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Another warm and dry today with relative
humidities bottom out in the upper teens in the valleys and the
mid twenties in the higher elevations. Winds will be southeasterly
with speeds of 10-20 mph, especially in the Gila River Valley. A
storm system will be moving into the region starting on Tuesday to
bring widespread valley rain showers, mountain snow, and windy
conditions. Tuesday winds can be 25-35 mph or higher before the
cold front moves through the region later in the afternoon to late
evening. Rain and snow chances will be elevated through most of
the work week. Cooler temperatures can be expected starting
Wednesday through at least the weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 PM MST Wednesday
for AZZ511-514.

Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 PM MST Wednesday for
AZZ510.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson