Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 PM MST Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Excessive heat continues across southeast Arizona
today before thunderstorms develop later this afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop and move through the area
this afternoon and evening, with the potential for severe and
damaging wind gusts. Additional monsoon activity over southeastern
Arizona will be possible going into this weekend and early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Hazy day after outflows from the east and south
last night sent dust overnight with visibilities down as low as 1
mile. Temperatures this afternoon on fairly similar trend as
yesterday with today being the last day of Excessive Heat Warnings
in this stretch of record to near record heat. Nothing like what
occurred last July when Tucson set record highs on eight
consecutive days.

Convection has started over the higher terrain per early afternoon
visible imagery with stronger convection occurring over northern
Greenlee/Graham counties. Mid-level steering flow out of the N/NE
to NE which will allow these storms to propagate S/SW across the
forecast areas through this evening. Severe wind gust potential is
up under this rim shot regime, especially considering the hot
boundary layer that exists and likely inverted-V profiles, and SPC
has areas west of Clifton to Douglas line in slight risk for
severe wind. 11/12z HREF is highlighting parts of SE AZ including
Tucson metro with 30% chance of wind gusts in excess of 50 kts
within 25 miles of a given point. SPC's Mesoscale discussion 1579
indicated a 40% chance for possible severe thunderstorm watch
being issued. In coordination with WFO Phoenix, went ahead an
issued a blowing dust advisory from 4 pm to 8pm to handle any dust
that is generated by t-storm outflows. Can't rule out a dust
warning late this afternoon into this evening.

Friday into the weekend: Gradual increase in daily chances of
showers and thunderstorms under E/SE flow aloft with the upper
high near 4-corners. There will be daily variability in storm
coverage with flash flooding threat increasing this weekend.

Next week: Upper high will gradually shift west turning our
steering flow out of the NE, thus brining back the chance for
storms to push off the rim.

Temperatures remaining hot Fri/Sat then near normal Sun into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/00Z.
Between 11/20Z and 12/05Z, SCT-BKN clouds at 7k-10k ft AGL and ISOLD-
SCT TSRA/SHRA beginning in the NE of the forecast area and moving to
the SW area. MVFR conditions near TSRA, with mountain obscurations,
VSBY restrictions and gusts to 40+ kts. Aft 05/05Z, gradual clearing
until ISOLD-SCT TSRA/SHRA begins at 12/21Z thru the forecast period.
Outside of TSRA outflows, SFC wind less than 10 kts and variable in
direction from 12/05Z thru 12/18Z. SFC wind aft thru the end of the
period WLY/NWLY at 8-15 kts and gusts to 15-25 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily chances for thunderstorms across southeast
Arizona are expected going into next week, with day to day variation
in location or coverage. Today, scattered thunderstorms with the
potential for very strong outflow winds will move through
southeastern Arizona. Minimum relative humidities this afternoon and
tomorrow will range from 10 to 16 percent in the lower elevations
and 15 to 30 percent in mountain areas. Humidity values increase
this weekend as greater moisture returns. Away from thunderstorms,
20 foot winds of 12 to 16 mph with gusts to around 25 mph are
expected each day with light and terrain driven winds overnight.

&&

.CLIMATE...Near record to record high temperatures today.

DATE                         Jul 11
                          FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       110 111/1958
PICACHO PEAK              111 112/1998
SIERRA VISTA FD            99 103/2020

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for
  AZZ501>506-509.

 Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for
  AZZ501>505- 515.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
542 PM MST Thu Jul 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     11 W Tucson             32.19N 111.08W
07/11/2024  M60 MPH          Pima               AZ   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DW4959 Tucson Star Pass Rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
552 PM MST Thu Jul 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     Dust Storm       2 SE Picture Rocks      32.33N 111.22W
07/11/2024                   Pima               AZ   Public

            Public report with video of near-zero
            visibility. Time estimated.

&&

KDE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
605 PM MST Thu Jul 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     Hail             7 NW Tucson             32.27N 110.98W
07/11/2024  E1.00 Inch       Pima               AZ   Trained Spotter

            estimate of 1 inch hail.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
607 PM MST Thu Jul 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNW Three Points      32.09N 111.30W
07/11/2024                   Pima               AZ   NWS Employee

            Damage to roof tiles and broken light
            fixture.

&&