Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1256 PM MST Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through
Wednesday and gradually diminish during the rest of the week.
Some storms will generate strong winds and locally heavy rainfall.
Daytime temperatures will trending hotter by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Cloud debris cleared out by the late morning and
towering cumulus clouds developed around 11 AM MST. The surface
temperatures warmed 2-5 degrees more than yesterday which brings
the environment to be more unstable and favorable conditions for
thunderstorms. A handful of storms have been developing in the
last hour around the region with storms producing 35 mph gusts and
rain amounts around 0.25 inches. Storms don't seem very tall and
could struggle to punch up higher. Most of the storms will
generally produce lightning, gusty winds up to 40 mph, and
localized rainfall. The latest HRRR run shows this thunderstorm
trend to continue through the rest of the afternoon and
dissipating shortly after sunset.

Moisture will stick around for the next several days to bring
scattered thunderstorm chances for most of the region. The upper
level pattern will be transitioning with the high pressure moving
away to the east and new high pressure center forming along the
west coast. Ensemble models show the new high will position
itself over the Great Basin and it will kick out the atmospheric
moisture. This will reduce thunderstorm chances towards the last
half of the week and it will bring hotter temperatures back. There
is a 38% chance for Tucson to reach 110F on Friday, but there is
some uncertainty on the strength and placement of the ridge axis
over the area. Overall, dryer and hotter temperatures will be
returning by the weekend and into the new week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 03/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 9-12k ft AGL with cirrus shield at 20K ft AGL
through the forecast period. Scattered -TSRA through 02/02Z and
again returning after 02/18Z to the end of the forecast period.
Expect brief MVFR conds near storms. SFC winds 10 kts or less with
the occasional afternoon gusts, except stronger due to gusty
outflows from storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily chances for scattered thunderstorms and
showers for the first half of the week and then diminishing
towards the end of the week. Moisture will slowly erode away
towards the end of the week and bringing min relative humidities
down towards the 10-18% range for the lower elevations and 18-25%
range in the higher elevations. Dryer air will be moving into the
region along with hotter temperature by the end of the week and
into the new week. Outside of thunderstorm winds, 20-foot winds
will generally be 15 mph or less each afternoon with the
occasional gust of 20-25 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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