Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
204 PM MST Sat Aug 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for thunderstorms and scattered showers will continue
tonight and into next week, with potential for heavy rainfall and
strong wind gusts. Hot temperatures today lasting throughout this
weekend, before cooling by a few degrees by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The weather across southeast Arizona is being driven by a broad
upper high over the Four Corners area. This upper high is a bit
more expansive than it has been in recent days, and is resulting
in slightly stronger subsidence and warmer temperatures across the
region.

With plenty of moisture across the region, the potential for
isolated to scattered convection still lingers across the region
today and Sunday. As storms evolve this afternoon and evening, the
focus will push south and west of Tucson where strong winds,
blowing dust and locally heavy rainfall will be the threats. Hot
temperatures will remain on Sunday, albeit a degree or two cooler
than today.

The upper ridge will undergo some subtle evolution through the
course of next week. It will initially push northward, inviting
more of an easterly flow aloft over the region. The upper ridge
then sloshes eastward toward Southern Plains. This pattern will
invite the potential for easterly waves to move through the
region. While the timing and strength of these waves remains
uncertain, confidence is high in an active thunderstorm week
across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 05/00z.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through this evening,
especially west of Graham/Cochise Counties. MVFR conditions and
local gusts to 50 kts near thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity
picks up again Sunday afternoon. Outside of thunderstorms expect
wind speeds less than 12 kts and following typical diurnal trends.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
Some drier air will move into the region this weekend that will
keep min RHs in the upper teens to lower twenties in the lower
locations and thirties in the higher elevations. Min RHs will
trend upward by next week due to thunderstorm influences. Outside
of thunderstorm winds, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or
less, with afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph and light
winds overnight.

&&

.CLIMATE...Near record highs this weekend.

Date                      Aug 03      Aug 04
                          RCD/YR      RCD/YR
Tucson Intl Airport       110/1994    109/2023
Ajo                       115/2021    115/2021
Organ Pipe Cactus         114/1998    114/1998
Picacho Peak              112/1998    113/1995
Safford Ag Station        106/1993    106/2009
Sierra Vista              100/1995    102/1995

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Dang/Contino
Aviation...Dang
Fire Weather....Dang/Contino

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
956 AM MST Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     8 SSE Tucson            32.10N 110.84W
08/02/2024                   Pima               AZ   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report. Numerous reports of
            thunderstorm related tree damage and damage
            to mobile homes. Reports near the
            intersection of I-10 and Kolb Rd.

0652 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 ESE Marana            32.39N 111.09W
08/02/2024                   Pima               AZ   Public

            Delayed report. Report of tree damage due to
            thunderstorm winds near intersection of Twin
            Peaks Rd and Oasis Rd.

&&

ALC/TGD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
251 PM MST Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     Hail             Nogales                 31.36N 110.94W
08/03/2024  E0.75 Inch       Santa Cruz         AZ   Trained Spotter

&&

ALC/TGD