Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
136 PM MST Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Southeast Arizona will continue to see enough
moisture for a daily chance of thunderstorms. Storm chances
increase over the weekend and early next week. Some storms will
generate strong winds and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are currently popping up in the
expected areas of Santa Cruz and Cochise counties in their higher
elevations including the Chiricahua, Santa Rita, Whetstone, and
Huachuca Mountains. CAPE values are currently 1500-2000 J/kg over
the area with 1400-1600 J/kg of DCAPE in those areas. So far
these storms have had strong updrafts for a few scans, but the
core promptly falls. Later on in the afternoon and evening with
more instability to tap into will be when we might see some more
strong storms.

Looking into the weekend, more moisture is on the way thanks to
the high pressure reconsolidating to the east over Northern Texas
introducing moist southeast flow instead of the dry
west/southwest flow that we currently have in place. This
increases the thunderstorm coverage to more of Southeast Arizona
for this weekend into the next work week. PWs still continue to
be still above the 1.5 inch mark for much of the area before
increasing to 1.7-2.0 inches by mid week, overall increasing the
flash flooding potential. Depending on when the moisture is set in
place, how and where storms were the day before, and how much
cloud cover there is the following day will all play a part in how
much coverage there will be and if it will be an "up" or "down"
monsoon day. We know that there will be "up" days, but not
entirely sure what day as of now when that will be. When preparing
for the holiday, keep your eye to the sky and stay weather aware
to whatever events/plans you have.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 30/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at or around 8-12k ft AGL with another layer SCT-
BKN 20-25k ft AGL through most of the forecast period with a
slight break in cloud cover towards 29/12Z to 29/18Z. Isolated
-TSRA this afternoon until 29/03Z and again after 29/20z with
brief MFR conditions near storms, mainly south and east of KTUS.
SFC winds generally 10 kts or less with the occasional afternoon
gusts, except of gusty outflows from storms. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Relatively deep moisture will stick around through
the forecast period. This will bring widely scattered to scattered
thunderstorms and showers today and Saturday, mainly south and
east of Tucson. Moisture will increase more through the weekend
and into next week to bring higher chances and coverage for
thunderstorms and showers each day. Strong erratic gusty winds of
40 mph or higher can be expected with any storm development, along
with locally brief heavy rainfall. Outside of thunderstorm winds,
20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less each afternoon
with the occasional gust of 20 mph. Min RHs will generally be
around 20% in the valleys and 30s in the mountains with good
overnight recoveries.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Tetrault
Aviation...Strongman
Fire Weather....Strongman

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