High Wind Watch 1, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
225 PM MST Wed Apr 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A warming trend continues through Thursday, then a
weather system moves into the area Friday through the weekend.
This system will bring windy conditions on Friday, a chance of
showers and mountain snow Friday night, and cool temperatures this
weekend.

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.DISCUSSION...There are no clouds in sight this afternoon thanks
to the transitional ridge that is currently overhead. This ridge
will stick around through tomorrow continuing the warming trend
until a weather system moves in. The high temperatures for tomorrow
will be 3-8 degrees above normal, with Tucson having a 38%
probability of reaching 85 degrees according to the NBM.

Looking ahead, the main headlines with this incoming system is the
windy conditions and the cold air mass left in the system's wake.
Ahead of the system, there will be a tightening of the pressure
gradient, causing the increased surface winds. Confidence has
increased that the main area for wind threat will be areas south and
east of Tucson, thus a wind advisory has been issued for Friday.
Areas in the Wind Advisory can see sustained southwest winds at 25-
35 mph with gusts up to 45. The ingredients are there for higher
wind speeds in the higher elevations that could produce sustained
southwest winds at 40-50 mph with gusts up to 65 mph. The main areas
of precipitation with this system continues to be Tucson northward
and not as wet as the previous system. Current totals remain under a
quarter of an inch for those areas Friday afternoon into Saturday
morning. Behind this system there will be cooler temperatures,
especially overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning with
temperatures possibly reaching 27-31 degrees in the Sulphur Springs
Valley and the forecasted low for Tucson remains at 40 degrees.

After this system passes, there is a bit of a break then another
short system Monday into Tuesday. This system could bring some gusty
winds and precipitation to the area once again. Longer range models
begin to end the 'troughy' pattern and give way to a pleasant slight
ridge pattern with mild and dry conditions thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 05/00Z.
SKC through the forecast period. Light and terrain driven winds
through 18Z tomorrow, then becoming south to southwest 12 to 16 kts
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Becoming warmer through Thursday with minimum
relative humidities bottoming out around 11 to 16 percent in the
valleys Thursday afternoon. Thursday will be breezy with a south
wind of 10 to 15 mph in the lower elevations and 15 to 25 mph in the
mountains. Then a weather system will move in Friday, resulting in
southwest 20-ft winds of 20 to 35 mph, gusts of 40 to 50 mph, and
higher gusts at elevations for much of the region.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 9 PM MST Friday for AZZ502>504-
506>509.

High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
AZZ510>515.

&&

Public...Tetrault
Aviation...Edwards
Fire Weather....Edwards

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