Flash Flood Warning 89, NWS Tucson, AZ

113 
WGUS75 KTWC 200010
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
510 PM MST Mon Aug 19 2024

AZC019-200245-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0089.000000T0000Z-240820T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
510 PM MST Mon Aug 19 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM MST THIS 
EVENING FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

At 510 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms had produced 
heavy rain across the warned area. Automated gauges have reported 
0.79 inches and radar estimates of up to 1.5 inches of rain have 
fallen in the warning area.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tucson, Tanque Verde, Catalina Foothills and Saguaro National Park 
  East.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
Agua Caliente Wash from Soldier Trl to Fort Lowell, Wentworth Rd at 
Tanque Verde Wash, Tanque Verde Loop Rd at Tanque Verde Wash and 
Limberlost Rd from Soilder Trail to Homestead Ave.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 11068 3223 11069 3221 11077 3224 11081
      3231 11081

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

GLZ

595 
WGUS75 KTWC 200248
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
748 PM MST Mon Aug 19 2024

AZC019-200258-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0089.000000T0000Z-240820T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
748 PM MST Mon Aug 19 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 11068 3223 11069 3221 11077 3224 11081
      3231 11081

$$

GLZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
152 PM MST Mon Aug 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS....There will be a daily chance of mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms through the week across
southeast Arizona. The thunderstorms will be accompanied by the
typical monsoon threats of strong wind gusts, localized heavy
rainfall and flash flooding, and blowing dust. High temperatures
will be several degrees above average tomorrow before falling a
few degrees around mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Moisture remains sufficient for thunderstorms today
with 1 inch near the border with New Mexico to 1.5 inches in
deserts west of Tucson. Decent shear and convective potential will
combine for some stronger storms today with vigorous outflows.
Most favored locations for sustained propagation along outflows
will be mainly south of Tucson, but metro area action mid to late
afternoon is possible.

Our flow will become more southeasterly tomorrow as the inverted
trough over Chihuahua pushes into southern and central Sonora.
This will also likely draw in some drier air in New Mexico for a
short time, with far eastern areas struggling to maintain enough
moisture for storms. Meanwhile temperatures will climb several
degrees, but expected to stay below excessive heat levels.

By Wednesday the high center should be reconsolidated due east
across western Texas and southeast New Mexico. That will combine
with an early transition season style trough digging down the west
coast to bring a strong southerly flow to the area. Wednesday and
Wednesday into Wednesday night or Thursday should be a decent
storm period with strongest storms Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening.

A drier southwesterly flow will likely knock the monsoon back a
bit later in the week into next weekend. Meanwhile tropical
development in a much more active eastern Pacific should remain a
little too far south to be engaged by any troughiness...for now.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 21/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 6k-9k ft AGL and BKN clouds AOA 15k ft AGL, along
with ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA thru 20/05Z. Slowly clearing skies between
20/05Z and 20/18Z. Aft 20/18Z, FEW-SCT clouds (locally BKN) at 6k-9k
ft AGL and ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA mainly west of KALK to KE77 line thru
the end of the forecast period. MVFR conditions near TSRA, with VSBY
restrictions, wind gusts to 45+ kts, heavy rain and mountain
obscurations. Outside of thunderstorm wind gusts, wind speeds will
be 12 kts or less, favoring a NWLY direction through the early
evening hours tonight and then SWLY thru NWLY direction Tuesday
afternoon. SFC wind variable in direction at other times. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There will be a daily chance of mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms across southeast Arizona through
Thursday, with a significant drying trend Friday through the
weekend. High temperatures will be 3 to 6 degrees above normal
through Tuesday, lowering to 1 to 4 degrees above normal Wednesday
into the weekend. Min RH values will be in the 20-30 percent range
in most valleys locations this week (except lowering to near 15
percent in eastern Cochise and the upper Gila River valley through
Tuesday). Min RH values are expected to lower by late this weekend
as the drier overspreads the area. Outside of any thunderstorm
outflow winds, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less, with
afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph and light winds
overnight.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
207 PM MST Mon Aug 19 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 NE Nogales            31.42N 110.85W
08/19/2024  M58 MPH          Santa Cruz         AZ   ASOS

            ASOS station KOLS Nogales International
            Airport.

&&

JVT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
434 PM MST Mon Aug 19 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     Hail             7 NE Tucson             32.26N 110.80W
08/19/2024  M0.70 Inch       Pima               AZ   Public

            Estimated dime sized hail.

&&

JVT