Flash Flood Warning 68, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1230 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening
across Southeast Arizona with strong gusty winds, blowing dust,
and heavy rainfall. Daily chances for thunderstorms continue into
next week. Some storms will generate heavy rain and strong gusty
winds. Temperatures will heat up a few degrees late in the week.

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.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are moving into the heart of Southeast
Arizona this afternoon. A shortwave is moving through the region
from the high pressure center to our east. More storms will
develop within a few hours and fill in the rest of the region. The
main threats are strong to severe winds, blowing dust, and heavy
rainfall through the rest of the afternoon and into the late night.
Convective allowing models show another wave of storms and
showers moving in the late evening. There are a few solutions that
storms could last into the early morning. This may be more of
showery in nature but if dynamics stick around, it can produce a
few strong thunderstorms around the area. Blowing dust is in
effect and there is higher confidence on the flash flooding
potential from these storms due to the better dynamics. Radar and
social media photo evidence show these storms are more organized
and efficient rain makers.

Tomorrow, if there are any remnants of storms in the morning, it
can delay storm development later in the afternoon to evening.
But, with the upper level flow, it can super charge the
environment quickly to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
The key ingredients will be implace for any storms, either on-
time or delay start, with the reoccurring threats of flash
flooding potential and damaging winds.

Friday and into the weekend, the high pressure center will move to
our north into the Four Corners area. This will give elevated
chances for afternoon thunderstorms even though moisture starts to
erode a little more. Another topic of discussion is heat.
Temperatures start to trend upward through the weekend with the
Gila River Valley experiencing the brunt of the heat with Major
Heat Risk with small chances for Extreme Heat Risk. Tucson will be
in the Major Risk for the weekend as well and it will depend on
the thickness levels and the exact high pressure position.

Next week, ensemble model members show the Great Basin High setting
up and keeping temperatures elevated and chances for thunderstorms
starting on the Mogollon Rim and down to the southwest desert
floors.

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.AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z.
Isolated to scattered to SCT- BKN AOA 12k ft AGL though most of
the forecast period. SCT TSRA through 01/02Z and ISOLD-SCT TSRA
possible in the overnight period. Another ISOLD-SCT TSRA developing
after 01/20Z to the end of the forecast period. SCT- BKN 8-10kt
ft AG with MFR conditions and wind gusts to 45kts near
thunderstorms. Outside of thunderstorm influence, expect wind to
be fairly light, generally remaining below 10 knots and following
typical diurnal trends. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Elevated moisture will continue with scattered
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Each day has the
threat of heavy rain, localized flash flooding and strong gusty
outflow winds. Outside of strong erratic outflows from
thunderstorms, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less,
with afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph and light winds
overnight.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ501>506.

&&

Strongman

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
142 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 PM     Flash Flood      9 E Tucson              32.19N 110.74W
07/31/2024                   Pima               AZ   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding;
            Street/road closed; Vehicles stranded.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
233 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     Flash Flood      19 SE Tucson            32.01N 110.65W
07/31/2024                   Pima               AZ   Public

            Public report of significant flow in Cienega
            Creek.

&&