Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Tucson, AZ

961 
WGUS75 KTWC 290113 RRA
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
613 PM MST Sun Jul 28 2024

AZC019-290245-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0063.000000T0000Z-240729T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
613 PM MST Sun Jul 28 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM MST THIS 
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

At 613 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tucson, Tanque Verde, Sabino Canyon Recreation Area, Catalina 
  Foothills and Seven Falls.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
Agua Caliente Wash from Soldier Trail to Ft Lowell, Tanque Verde 
Loop Rd at Tanque Verde Wash, Limberlost Rd from Soilder Trail to 
Homestead Ave and Snyder Rd from Kolb Rd to Sabino Canyon Rd.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Tanque Verde Wash, Agua Caliente Wash, Esperero Wash, Bird Canyon, 
  Ventana Canyon Wash, Sabino Creek, Chimney Rock Creek and Buehman 
  Canyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain. 
Washes, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a 
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.

&&

LAT...LON 3239 11064 3238 11056 3228 11070 3224 11073
      3224 11077 3225 11084 3233 11083 3238 11081
      3242 11074 3241 11072 3240 11068

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

KJS

092 
WGUS75 KTWC 290239
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
739 PM MST Sun Jul 28 2024

AZC019-290249-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0063.000000T0000Z-240729T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
739 PM MST Sun Jul 28 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 745 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR 
NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3239 11064 3238 11056 3228 11070 3224 11073
      3224 11077 3225 11084 3233 11083 3238 11081
      3242 11074 3241 11072 3240 11068

$$

KJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
146 PM MST Sun Jul 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms this
through the week. Main threats will be heavy rainfall with strong
gusty winds. Localized flash flooding and isolated severe winds
will be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

While the axis of broad ridging sits to the east, mean
atmospheric flow over southeastern Arizona has become southerly.
Though not particularly fast, this will will aid in a slow
northward propagation of heavy raining convection today. As shown
by the morning upper air observation and GOES precipitable water
values, the atmosphere is certainly primed to produce very heavy
rainfall rates this afternoon and early evening. The combination
of instability and richest moisture generally favors thunderstorm
development from southern central Pima County through Santa Cruz
and Cochise counties, with isolated development further into
southern Pinal and Graham counties this afternoon. Though the
primary threat should be the very heavy rainfall rates, wet
microbursts may produce isolated strong to severe wind gusts as
well. Coverage should quickly diminish with sunset, however a few
late storms out of Sonora tonight can't be ruled out.

As the upper high drifts further east on Monday, flow aloft
becomes a bit stronger (around 10 to near 20 kts at 500mb). Under
otherwise similar atmospheric conditions to today, this may allow
for longer lived convection with potentially a bit of a higher
wind gust threat. That said, there is some uncertainty in severity
and favored location as models showing the potential for lingering
cloud cover in the morning which may inhibit full development of
instability. The 12Z HREF updraft helicity probability (a modeled
probability of potential thunderstorm organization and severity)
shows an uptick in probability tomorrow compared to today, however
more limited in spatial coverage towards the southern border.
Further analysis will need to be made tonight.

With the ridge sitting to the east, daily chances for
monsoon activity with a southerly component will continue. An
interesting added factor will be a low pressure circulation,
currently south of the Baja peninsula, which models currently
have moving north towards southern Arizona around mid-week. It's
much too early for details on this circulation's impact, however
it could cause some changes to the normal diurnal convective
timing cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 30/00Z.

Scattered thunderstorms through 28/02Z near KOLS-KDUG and isolated
up north through KTUS and KSAD. Very heavy rainfall, brief MVFR
conditions, and isolated gusty outflow winds to 45 kts near any
thunderstorm today. Otherwise winds generally under 12kts this
afternoon and becoming light tonight. Chances for thunderstorms
expected again Monday afternoon. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated moisture will continue with scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. Each day has the threat of
heavy rain, localized flash flooding and strong gusty outflow
winds. Away from thunderstorms, 20-foot winds will generally be 15
mph or less, with afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph and
light winds overnight. As high pressure builds mid- week, high
temperatures should rise a bit and minimum relative humidities
should fall by a few percentage points.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blowing Dust Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST this
evening for AZZ505.

&&

Public...Edwards
Aviation...Edwards
Fire Weather....Edwards

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1248 PM MST Sun Jul 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     Hail             10 SE Sierra Vista      31.48N 110.19W
07/28/2024  M0.70 Inch       Cochise            AZ   Trained Spotter

            Also reported about 0.5 inches of rain in 15
            minutes so far.

&&

AJE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
138 PM MST Sun Jul 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     7 W Pirtleville         31.37N 109.69W
07/28/2024  M53 MPH          Cochise            AZ   Mesonet

            Mesonet station KP03 Cochise College
            Airport.

&&

AJE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
247 PM MST Sun Jul 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     Hail             3 NNW Willcox           32.29N 109.87W
07/28/2024  M1.00 Inch       Cochise            AZ   Public

            Relayed via social media.

&&

AJE