Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Tucson, AZ

212 
WGUS75 KTWC 270330
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
830 PM MST Fri Jul 26 2024

AZC019-270500-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-240727T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
830 PM MST Fri Jul 26 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS 
EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN PIMA COUNTY...

At 830 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms have produced 
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain 
have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Ventana.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Anegam Wash, Gu Achi Wash and San Simon Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3242 11229 3244 11228 3248 11226 3250 11223
      3249 11217 3244 11216 3235 11220 3235 11227
      3238 11230

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

AWH

304 
WGUS75 KTWC 270453
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
953 PM MST Fri Jul 26 2024

AZC019-270503-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-240727T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
953 PM MST Fri Jul 26 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR 
NORTHWESTERN PIMA COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3242 11229 3244 11228 3248 11226 3250 11223
      3249 11217 3244 11216 3235 11220 3235 11227
      3238 11230

$$

AWH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
203 PM MST Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend and into next week with the main threats being strong gusty
winds and heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Our active monsoon pattern continues today for a good
portion of our forecast area as convection has already developed
over the White Mountains and is starting to push southward towards
the Upper Gila River valley. In addition, some showers and
thunderstorms have formed over the Chiricahua Mountains and are
starting across some of the other Sky Islands east of Tucson.
Elsewhere, partly cloudy skies east of Tucson and mostly sunny skies
to the west of Tucson. Locales from Tucson westward still have
convective inhibition due to the atmosphere being worked over from
convection last night. Latest HRRR/CAMs all in good agreement
showing a continuation of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
across Graham/Greenlee/Cochise Counties the rest of this afternoon
with little if any convection from Tucson westward. It's generally
going to take additional lift from outflows from the east to
northeast to help initiate convection from Tucson Metro and points
westward during the evening hours. Some of the HREF members are
showing the potential for convective activity even well into the
overnight hours but confidence is low on that at this time. Bottom
line is the main threat with showers and thunderstorms today into
tonight continues to be areas of heavy rainfall with a flash
flooding threat and gusty winds.

For Saturday, the weakening mid/upper level high will be located
across southern Arizona and that will result in a weaker steering
flow pattern for us. However, with plenty of moisture in place (PWAT
1.25" eastern areas to 1.75" western areas), scattered slow moving
showers and thunderstorms will develop. We do expect the bulk of the
activity to be from Tucson south and eastward.

That area of high pressure will move to our east Sunday into next
week opening the area into a more southerly to southeasterly flow
pattern. Ensembles are showing some hint of an inverted trough to
our southwest around next Tuesday and Wednesday that could help
enhance activity. We'll certainly have enough moisture in place to
continue daily scattered thunderstorm activity with the best
coverage likely south and east of Tucson.

Temperatures will be about 2 to 6 degrees above normal through the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 28/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 7-11k ft AGL with scattered SHRA/TSRA mainly east
and south of KTUS through 27/00Z, then potentially impacting KTUS
area and westward thereafter thru 27/06Z. Low confidence for
potential SHRA/TSRA lingering thru the overnight hours till 27/12Z.
Additional SHRA/TSRA possible again aft 28/18Z. Strong winds to 40-
60 kts possible near the strongest TSRA with MVFR conditions.
Outside of TSRA, surface winds will generally be
easterly/southeasterly and remain under 10 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with day
to day variability on which areas will see the best chance of
rainfall. The best chances will typically be from Tucson south and
eastward through much of the forecast period. Each day has the
threat of heavy rain, localized flash flooding and strong gusty
winds. Minimum relative humidities will be 20 to 30 percent in most
lower elevation locations and 25 to 40 percent in mountain areas.
Away from thunderstorms, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or
less, with afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph and light
winds overnight.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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