Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Tucson, AZ

686 
WGUS75 KTWC 252121
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
221 PM MST Thu Jul 25 2024

AZC019-252330-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-240725T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
221 PM MST Thu Jul 25 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

At 221 PM MST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 
and 2 inches of rain have fallen. The Sells RAWS has measured 1.50 
inches in the last hour and a half. Flash flooding is ongoing or 
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Sells, Topawa, Ali Chukson, Vamori, South Komelik, Fresnal, 
  Artesia and Ali Molina.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
	Indian Route 19 south of Topawa.

This includes Route 86 between mile markers 110 and 120.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Fresnal Wash, Chutum Vaya Wash, Gu Oidak Wash, Pan Wash, Sells 
  Wash, Topawa Wash, Ali Molina Wash, San Luis Wash, Baboquivari 
  Wash, San Juan Wash, Comobabi Wash, Vamori Wash and Murk Kui Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3177 11195 3186 11197 3191 11199 3195 11196
      3198 11193 3203 11186 3199 11178 3192 11177
      3181 11178 3171 11177 3170 11193

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

AWH

066 
WGUS75 KTWC 252327
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
427 PM MST Thu Jul 25 2024

AZC019-252337-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-240725T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
427 PM MST Thu Jul 25 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3177 11195 3186 11197 3191 11199 3195 11196
      3198 11193 3203 11186 3199 11178 3192 11177
      3181 11178 3171 11177 3170 11193

$$

GEL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
106 PM MST Thu Jul 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend and into next week with the main threats being strong gusty
winds and heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...It's shaping up to be another active day with a very
similar look and feel to what we saw yesterday. As of this writing,
we already have thunderstorms over the White Mountains and isolated
activity developing over the T.O. Nation. Elsewhere, skies are
mostly clear to partly cloudy with considerable cumulus development
over the Sky Islands and some adjacent valleys. Convective
parameters and thermodynamics are in place for a busy afternoon and
evening with the deepest moisture and highest CAPE values of 1000-
1500 J/KG from Tucson westward. PWAT values are around 1.4" near
Tucson to around 1.75" over western Pima County, while it is a bit
drier east of Tucson with PWAT's closer to 1 inch. These values out
east are still high enough to result in convection pushing off the
White Mountains under around 10 kts of NE mid level flow.
Separately, additional scattered thunderstorms will developing
through the afternoon across much of the forecast area. As the
activity pushes off the mountains and we continue to see additional
storms develop off of outflows, a more organized complex of
thunderstorms is most likely over the T.O. Nation heading into the
evening hours. Overall, the greatest threat area outlined by the
HREF for both wind and flash flooding potential will be across SE
Pinal and Pima County including the T.O. Nation. Thunderstorms
should weaken later this evening with any remaining shower activity
diminishing overnight.

The mid/upper level high will nudge a bit more to the south Friday
over western Arizona with the mid level steering flow weakening into
the 5 to 10 kt range. Given the deep moisture in place (PWAT around
1 inch near the NM border to around 1.8" western deserts), expect a
continued heavy rain/flash flooding and wind/wet microburst threat
for the thunderstorms Friday into Friday evening.

For this weekend, the high center will shift towards the east,
centered just to our west during the day Saturday, nearly overhead
Saturday night and  over southern Arizona and then into southern New
Mexico by Sunday. This pattern setup will result in the best chances
for thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday from Tucson south and
eastward. The high isn't very strong so even though it'll be nearby,
we won't really see a noticeable change in temperatures.

For next week, the flow pattern will be more south to southeasterly
as the high remains to our east. An inverted trough early next week
may help amplify the convection a bit, though confidence on those
details is low. Bottomline is expect a continuation of daily rounds
of showers and thunderstorms next week with day-to-day variability
in coverage.

Temperatures generally 2 to 6 degrees above normal through the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 27/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 7-11k ft AGL with scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA
impacting much of the forecast area and moving from the NE to the SW
ending thru 26/06Z. Another round of SHRA/TSRA expected aft 26/19Z
Friday. Strong winds to 40-60 kts possible near the strongest TSRA
with MVFR conditions. Outside of TSRA, surface winds will generally
be easterly/southeasterly and remain under 10 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with day
to day variability on which areas will see the best chance of
rainfall. This afternoon through Friday is looking particularly
active at this time, with each day having the threat of heavy rain,
localized flash flooding and strong gusty winds. Minimum relative
humidities will be 20 to 30 percent in most lower elevation
locations and 25 to 40 percent in mountain areas. Away from
thunderstorms, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less, with
afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph and light winds overnight.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

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