Flash Flood Warning 102, NWS Tucson, AZ

157 
WGUS75 KTWC 252349
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
449 PM MST Sun Aug 25 2024

AZC003-260115-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0102.000000T0000Z-240826T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
449 PM MST Sun Aug 25 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM MST THIS 
EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

At 449 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Sierra Vista, Hereford and Ramsey Canyon Preserve.

This includes Route 92 between mile markers 324 and 330.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3152 11032 3152 11021 3142 11020 3142 11032

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

GLZ

637 
WGUS75 KTWC 260111
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
611 PM MST Sun Aug 25 2024

AZC003-260121-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0102.000000T0000Z-240826T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
611 PM MST Sun Aug 25 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 615 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3152 11032 3152 11021 3142 11020 3142 11032

$$

GLZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
127 PM MST Sun Aug 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this
weekend with daily chances all next week. High temperatures are
expected to remain near normal.

&&

.UPDATE...Isolated thunderstorms have begun over some of the Sky
Islands. Water vapor shows southeast Arizona in between high
pressure over the southern Plains and a trough extending from the
Pacific Northwest into Nevada. Dry air ahead of the trough is
evident on water vapor from western Pima County to Tucson. Because
of this Tucson will be on the western edge of storm chances with
most activity south and east of Tucson. PWAT values range from
1"-1.25" across the area. Storm coverage will remain isolated
mainly over the higher terrain through mid-afternoon then
increase in coverage especially south and east of Tucson. MLCAPE
values will be around 1000-1500 J/kg, DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, and
0-6 km shear 15-20 kts. Storms will be capable of strong winds to
sometimes severe winds and localized heavy rainfall. Best chances
for heavier rainfall will be in Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties.

Monday looks to have a similar setup to today with the trough
moving northeastward into Utah and Wyoming. The ridge also gets
shoved to the northeast as an easterly wave enters Texas from the
Gulf of Mexico. Dry air looks to inch a bit further east putting
Tucson on the western edge of expected convection again with most
activity expected to be east and south of Tucson. The HREF paints
the area with isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon
and evening with normal monsoon threats of strong winds and
locally heavy rainfall.

After Monday the trough moves off into the northern Plains with
weak high pressure centered over northeast New Mexico and the
easterly wave sitting over Texas. To the west models show a couple
weak cyclonic disturbances in the Pacific. This will put southern
Arizona under southerly mid-level flow, which will increase
moisture, especially for areas west of Tucson. The GEFS shows
PWAT values around 125 percent of normal Tuesday and Wednesday.
This will lead to more widespread coverage of storms than what
has taken place over the past few days. Ensembles are also hinting
at possible overnight convection Tuesday night with NBM PoPs
20-40 percent during that timeframe. If this happens then storms
Wednesday could be somewhat subdued.

For the remainder of the work week ensembles show moisture
decreasing for western areas again. By Friday storm chances could
be confined again to areas from Tucson eastward. Models show
further drying by next weekend as mid-level flow turns northerly
thanks to a trough moving onto the Pacific Coast and a ridge
building off the coast of Baja California.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 27/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds 7k-10k ft AGL and SCT-BKN 15k-20k ft AGL this
afternoon and evening. Clouds gradually clear overnight for most
of the area with SCT coverage above 15k ft AGL along the AZ/NM
border. Expect isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA mainly east of a
Picacho-KTUS-KOLS line after 25/20Z dissipating from west to east
through the evening. Visibility restrictions, wind gusts up to 45
kts, heavy rain, small hail, and mountain obscurations possible
with any thunderstorm. Outside of thunderstorm wind gusts, SFC
winds SWLY to NWLY in direction generally 8-12 kts becoming SELY
overnight 5-10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Monday
mainly from Tucson eastward. Drier air pushing in will act in
lowering minimum relative humidities to around 18-28 percent through
Monday, though areas east of Tucson to Nogales should keep higher
values. More widespread thunderstorm coverage is expected Tuesday
and Wednesday, then a gradual decrease into the weekend. Outside
of any thunderstorm outflow winds, 20-foot winds will generally be
15 mph or less, with afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph
and light winds overnight.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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