Severe Thunderstorm Warning 424, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
650 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
this afternoon/early evening across north-central Oklahoma in the
vicinity of weak surface boundary and associated low pressure system.
This activity is forecast to spread into eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas through the evening hours as a mid-level shortwave currently
over southwest Kansas swoops through the area. There is the potential
that a few of the storms could be strong to severe this evening across
portions of eastern Oklahoma, mainly to the south of Highway 412 and
west of Highway 75. Large hail to the size of golf balls is the main
concern. Overall, the shower and storm activity is expected to move
out of the area late tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Wednesday into Thursday are expected to remain mostly dry as a cutoff
upper level takes shape over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Shower and
storm chances increase Thursday night into Friday as moisture associated
with Helene is incorporated into the cutoff low as it wobbles east of the
area. The highest probabilities of shower/storms are forecast across
western Arkansas as are the highest rainfall amounts. The upper level
low will finally begin to move off to the northeast over the weekend
with dry weather forecast for much of the area. Temperatures look to
be near normal for this time of year during this time-frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread south
and east this evening across E OK and NW AR with additional
development possible over the next several hours. This may lead
to at least brief ceiling & vsby reductions, with highest
potential for flight impacts expected for MLC. Most precip should
move south of TAF sites by 07z with clearing conditions behind
this activity. This may allow for development of fog late tonight/
tomorrow morning (low to medium chance). At this time, MLC and
FSM appear to be most favored for vsby reductions and have
included TEMPO groups here. Other sites in E OK & NW AR may also
experience at least brief vsby reductions, but confidence was not
high enough to include mention with this forecast issuance. Aside
from any lingering fog tomorrow morning, VFR conditions are
expected for the remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  81  54  80 /  70   0   0   0
FSM   61  82  59  82 /  70   0   0  10
MLC   59  81  56  81 /  90   0   0   0
BVO   52  81  51  82 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   54  79  51  78 /  50   0   0  20
BYV   54  78  51  77 /  30   0   0  20
MKO   57  79  55  79 /  70   0   0  10
MIO   54  79  50  78 /  20   0   0  10
F10   57  80  53  79 /  80   0   0   0
HHW   62  81  56  82 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...43

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
432 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
432 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Remainder of This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma...West of Highway 75.
	ONSET...Late Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Late Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorm will develop by late afternoon or
early evening across parts of eastern Oklahoma as a disturbance
drops southeast across the Plains. Sufficient instability and shear
in place could allow for a few of the initial thunderstorms to
become strong to severe, especially across central and into east
central Oklahoma this evening. Main threats will be hail up to half-
dollar size and damaging wind gusts. Any severe threat should wane
into the overnight hours and storms shift southeastward. Locally
heavy rainfall will also be a concern with the stronger storms.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and a few thunderstorms will occur late Thursday through
Friday in association with an upper level storm system just to our
east. The greatest thunderstorm potential will be across far
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas where locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible. Thunderstorm chances also continue
into the weekend as the upper low remains nearby before upper
ridging builds back in early next week with a return to more
settled conditions.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
806 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

OKZ064-250130-
Creek OK-
806 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CREEK COUNTY THROUGH 830
PM CDT...

At 806 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 7 miles
north of Bristow, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bristow...                        Kellyville...
Slick...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 190 and 204.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3590 9650 3605 9637 3594 9614 3573 9629
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 301DEG 30KT 3593 9635

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
809 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

OKZ064-250130-
Creek OK-
809 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CREEK COUNTY
THROUGH 830 PM CDT...

At 809 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Depew, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bristow...                        Depew...
Slick...                          Milfay...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 178 and 192.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3593 9653 3579 9626 3564 9638 3564 9645
      3575 9662 3581 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 301DEG 30KT 3581 9652

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH