Severe Thunderstorm Warning 376, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
733 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 733 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Widely scattered storms developed during the late afternoon across
northeast OK, mainly near Tulsa. The environment is very favorable
for downburst winds, with high PWATs and DCAPE. The current
activity should wane around or after sunset. However, more
development is expected later tonight as the LLJ picks up, with
the most likely location from far NE OK into NW AR. While severe
downburst threat will be waning, some potential for storms to
train could lead to locally heavy rainfall. Update sent to update
PoPs with latest data and to insert severe wording into zones in
the svr watch.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Weak front currently extends from south central KS into SW OK
with a plume of elevated moisture and isolated convection
remaining draped across across NE OK. Guidance remains in good
agreement in scattered storms developing along the frontal
boundary and also expanding within the mid level moist axis as the
approaching mid level passes the region through the evening.
Effective shear values support some stronger multicell to brief
supercell structure and the strongest storms will be capable of
both hail and locally damaging downburst winds. Storm coverage is
likely to peak by mid evening with a gradual decrease while
focusing more eastward within the strengthening overnight low
level jet.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Dangerous heat index / wet bulb globe temps are likely to continue
tomorrow. Uncertainties are somewhat higher tomorrow regarding
temp and dewpoint trends pending the coverage and duration of
tonight's convection. A weak sfc boundary is likely to align
across SE OK by mid afternoon and isolated storms are possible in
vicinity of this boundary. Additional storms are expected to
develop across KS and spread southeastward into NE OK by late
afternoon or early evening. This storms will be accompanied by a
stronger corridor of winds aloft and are likely to maintain a risk
of severe weather as they spread southeastward into E OK / NW AR.
As the severe risk wanes by late evening, the developing low
level jet will be orthogonal to the remnant cold pool and there is
potential for a localized area of heavier rainfall totals to
develop through Saturday morning.

Hot and humid conditions will continue into the weekend and
additional heat advisories and/or warnings may be needed.
However, the general trend should be for high temps to cool
slightly as the upper ridge axis shifts more westward. This may
also allow slightly drier air to spread into parts of the region
while also maintaining low chances for daily showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Scattered thunderstorms will persist this evening across NE OK and
potentially into NW AR between 04-08z. Strongly considered TEMPO
groups for TSRA and gusty winds this evening across NE OK sites.
However, given scattered nature of storms, will hold off for now
and amend if required. Strongest storms will be capable of
producing strong downbursts and locally strong sfc gusts
potentially exceeding 50 kts. Storms and associated outflow
boundaries will produce variable winds overnight, especially for
NE OK & NW AR sites. VFR conditions are expected areawide
thereafter and for the remainder of the period. Southerly winds
increase again tomorrow morning and afternoon. Additional
scattered thunderstorm development is forecast across NE OK after
00z tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  99  75  99 /  40  20  30  10
FSM   78 100  78  99 /  10  20  20  20
MLC   77  99  76  99 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   71  98  70  98 /  40  20  50  10
FYV   74  98  72  96 /  40  20  40  30
BYV   73  98  70  94 /  50  20  50  30
MKO   75  98  75  97 /  20  20  30  20
MIO   72  97  70  94 /  50  20  60  20
F10   74  99  75  99 /  20  10  20  10
HHW   78 100  76 102 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>059-062-
     063-068-069-073-075.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ049-053>059-
     062-063-068-069-073-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060-
     061-064>067-070>072-074-076.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ060-
     061-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
911 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
911 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue late
this evening and early overnight. The environment is favorable
for severe downburst winds from any sustained surface based storms
that can get going. Storms may also produce hail up to the size
of quarters and locally heavy rainfall. Convection will gradually
weaken late this evening and early overnight with loss of daytime
heating.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A secondary uptick in storm coverage and severe potential will be
Friday afternoon and evening as storms move into the region from
Kansas. Outside of any relief from rain and storms, dangerous
heat will persist through the weekend. Relatively cooler temps are
expected next week as the upper ridge shifts west away from the
region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
948 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

OKZ054-059-060-064-160330-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
948 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...
NORTHWESTERN CREEK...SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE AND WEST CENTRAL TULSA
COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM CDT...

At 948 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Terlton, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Cleveland...                      Mannford...
Oilton...                         Jennings...
Westport...                       Osage...
Hallett...                        Terlton...
Keystone State Park...            Walnut Creek State Park...
Silver City...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 9662 3630 9662 3637 9619 3607 9617
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 260DEG 17KT 3620 9651

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1012 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     Hail             2 SW Oneta              36.00N 95.74W
08/15/2024  M1.00 Inch       Wagoner            OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1025 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

OKZ060-064>066-160400-
Tulsa OK-Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-Creek OK-
1025 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN CREEK...NORTHWESTERN
OKMULGEE...SOUTH CENTRAL TULSA AND NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES
THROUGH 1100 PM CDT...

At 1025 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 6 miles northeast of Bristow to 7 miles north of
Welty to 5 miles north of Paden. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bristow...                        Jenks...
Okfuskee...                       Glenpool...
Kiefer...                         Beggs...
Mounds...                         Kellyville...
Slick...                          Welty...
Liberty...                        Mason...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 186 and 206.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3562 9662 3576 9651 3597 9643 3601 9594
      3573 9603 3552 9622 3555 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 275DEG 30KT 3591 9633 3573 9642 3559 9655

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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