Severe Thunderstorm Warning 369, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 904 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

It's been relatively quiet across much of the forecast area this
afternoon and thus far this evening. A remnant MCV, currently
situated over southwest MO, is causing thunderstorms across
northern AR, just east of the forecast area. These storms are
aided by modest WAA taking place ahead of the MCV. Trends in the
hi-res model guidance suggest storms will build westward across
far northwest AR, best chances in Carroll and Madison counties,
over the next few hours. In addition to locally heavy rainfall,
damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be the primary
threats with any organized storm.

Consistency in CAMs indicate additional storms developing across
northeast OK and northwest AR after midnight tonight, likely due
to a combination of a strengthening low-level jet and the approach of
a southward-advancing frontal boundary. The highest chances of
precipitation should remain north of the I-40 corridor (along and
just north of the frontal boundary) through much of the overnight
period, but isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop
south of I-40 closer to daybreak tomorrow morning as the front
continues to push south. Instability and 0-6 km shear are
expected to decrease through as the night progresses, which should
limit the severe potential. However, cannot completely rule out a
few strong to severe storms, capable of producing marginally
severe hail/wind gusts, with the stronger updrafts that occur. In
addition, a flooding potential will exist overnight as locally
heavy rainfall appears likely with heavier/training thunderstorms,
particularly across northeast OK and northwest AR.

The main changes that were made to this update were to adjust the
PoPs through 12z. Additional adjustments will likely be needed
through the night.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Storm chances will persist while trending southward into
Thursday as the front continues a southward push. This will also
mark the beginning of a prolonged stretch of below normal
temperatures that will persist into at least early next week. The
pattern of high amplitude ridging in the western CONUS and
persistent downstream trough over the plains will result in
essentially daily rain and thunderstorm chances, with a possible
uptick in coverage over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Main impacts to terminals in the short term will be thunderstorms
during the overnight and morning hours. Storms are expected to
develop shortly across NE OK sites and spread into NW AR sites
through the night. Storm chances decrease to the south but will be
possible for those sites during the mid morning hours. Main
impacts will be reductions in visibility and lighting. Storms
should clear the area by late morning with lesser chances at more
thunderstorms development across SE OK and WC AR Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Winds will come around northerly behind a
frontal boundary, but will be noticeably lighter than recent
days.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  70  90  66 /  40  10  10   0
FSM   92  73  89  69 /  50  50  30   0
MLC   90  70  88  67 /  30  40  20   0
BVO   90  64  89  61 /  40  10   0   0
FYV   87  67  86  61 /  60  30  20   0
BYV   86  66  85  61 /  70  30  10   0
MKO   88  69  88  66 /  40  30  10   0
MIO   86  65  85  62 /  50  10   0   0
F10   88  68  88  65 /  40  30  10   0
HHW   95  70  86  69 /  30  50  40   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054>064-066>070.

AR...Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1048 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1048 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Primarily along and north of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...After midnight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After midnight.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered to numerous storms are expected after midnight across portions of
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a cold front slowly
pushes into the region. A few strong to severe storms will be
possible along with locally heavy rainfall.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early Wednesday
as they spread southward as the cold front moves into the region.
Thunderstorms may persist across far southeast Oklahoma into
Thursday, otherwise much cooler temperatures are expected behind the
passing cold front. The weather pattern over the weekend into early
next week will become favorable for daily thunderstorm chances and
temperatures below normal for mid July.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.