Severe Thunderstorm Warning 288, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
622 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Cold front currently near a Tulsa to Ardmore line and making slow
but steady progress eastward. Conditions have become increasingly
unstable ahead of the front through the day and minimal inhibition
remains supporting short term guidance of storm initiation along
the front during the mid afternoon hours. Shear will support
supercell mode, especially south of Interstate 40, with limited
low level shear and mostly straight and elongated hodographs
supportive of aggressive splitting supercells capable of very
large hail. Scattered severe storms are likely to persist will
into the evening before a gradual decrease in intensity and
coverage by late evening as the front continues its slow
southeastward progress.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Warm sector quickly recovers during the day Saturday with data
remaining consistent in a broad fetch of a strongly unstable and
deeply sheared airmass overspreading much of the Southern Plains
by late afternoon. The approaching shortwave trough and associated
wind fields are all within the classic configuration supporting a
significant severe weather event from late Saturday afternoon
through Saturday night. The higher storm coverage will focus north
of the local region along the sfc low track and warm frontal
zone. Further south along the dryline through OK storm coverage
remains more uncertain, however confidence remains high in at
least isolated to scattered supercells initiating along the
dryline through central OK and spreading into E OK during the
evening hours. The background environment supports significant
severe weather potential and weather conditions should be followed
closely from trusted weather sources Saturday evening into the
overnight hours.

The cold front associated with the passing wave lags to the west
and does not completely clear western AR until Sunday afternoon.
The bulk of guidance keeps the frontal passage dry with only low
chances of storms developing along the boundary during the day
Sunday. This period will continue to monitored for higher storm
potential but at this time it appears Sunday is a trend downward
in the severe potential.

A brief dry period Monday into Tuesday as sfc high pressure
prevails. The flow aloft becomes northwesterly through the Plains
by mid week and will eventually support repeated rounds of
thunderstorm complexes moving through the region Wednesday into
Friday. By late week the pattern likely returns to more
southwesterly flow aloft and unsettled and stormy conditions
persist.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A cold front is progressing across E OK this afternoon and will
bring storm chances to the TAFs across W AR and SE OK. Where
chances are higher, TEMPOs for MVFR conditions were maintained
during the favored time windows. The front never really clears the
W AR sites tonight, and MOS guidance shows potential for fog at
those sites late tonight into Saturday morning. After any fog that
develops lifts, VFR conditions will prevail thru the end of the
forecast. Storm chances will increase again for the E OK sites
just beyond the scope of this forecast.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  88  72  90 /   0   0  40   0
FSM   68  90  73  90 /  50   0  20  20
MLC   65  88  72  91 /  50   0  20  10
BVO   53  87  69  88 /   0   0  40   0
FYV   60  86  69  87 /  50   0  30  20
BYV   60  86  70  87 /  50   0  30  20
MKO   62  86  72  89 /  30   0  30  10
MIO   57  85  69  86 /  10   0  50  20
F10   61  87  72  90 /  20   0  40   0
HHW   67  87  72  89 /  50   0  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
457 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
457 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late afternoon or early evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas,
  	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are developing along a cold
front that is currently moving through northeast Oklahoma late this
afternoon. A few storms along the front may become severe into the
evening, especially across southeast Oklahoma and west central
Arkansas where the environment is more supportive of severe weather.
The strongest storms will be capable of producing all hazards,
including large to significant hail in excess of two inches in
diameter. A low tornado threat will exist as well. The severe
weather risk will end with the passage of the cold front. The front
is expected to exit the area around, or a little after midnight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Strong storm system will bring storm chances back to the area on
Saturday as storms could develop along a dryline in central
Oklahoma and spread eastward into the eastern Oklahoma during the
evening hours. All severe hazards will be possible, including
large to very large hail and tornadoes. Storms will likely be
isolated to widely scattered as a capping inversion limits
convection along the boundary during the afternoon before the
arrival of stronger forcing. A couple of quiet days are expected
for the remainder of the holiday weekend. Nightly thunderstorm
chances will return by mid week as northwest flow aloft sets up
and chances increase for storm complexes moving into the region
overnight.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>