Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
610 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Thunderstorms continue to develop early this afternoon across
northeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of a cold front that extends
from near Nowata to near Oilton and back into south-central
Oklahoma. Thunderstorm development is expected to continue in
the vicinity of the front as it moves east across the region. With
the airmass already extremely unstable and very little if any cap
in place, any storms that develop will have the potential to become
severe rapidly. Giant hail and significant tornadoes will be the
main concern with impressive deep layer shear above. The storms are
expected to come to an end later this evening as the cold front
exits.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Most of the area will be dry on Thursday. However, there will be
a small chance of showers/storms across southeast Oklahoma Thursday
afternoon/evening as a storm system skirts the area to the
south. High pressure is expected to prevail Friday into Saturday with
dry conditions forecast area-wide. Shower/storm chances return
Sunday and continue into early next week as an upper level low slowly
moves out of the Rockies and into the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A cold front will continue to move through eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening. Ongoing showers/storms along the
front in northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas are
expected to continue to expand in coverage across southeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening with the movement of
the front. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with
large hail and strong winds. Also within the storms...LIFR to MVFR
conditions are forecast. By 06z the storms and cold front are
forecast to be southeast of the CWA TAF sites. Behind the
front...clearing skies should spread over the CWA tonight and
remain common into Thursday morning. During the day
Thursday scattered/broken high clouds are forecast to move over
the CWA. Winds ahead of the front remain south to southwest and
then transition to west to northerly behind the frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  80  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  84  57  78 /  80  10  10   0
MLC   60  81  57  77 /  10  20  10   0
BVO   49  78  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   54  80  50  75 /  60  10  10   0
BYV   54  77  50  72 /  80   0  10   0
MKO   55  78  53  75 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   50  76  50  73 /  10   0   0   0
F10   55  78  53  75 /   0  10  10   0
HHW   63  82  58  77 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
442 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
442 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...SEVERE STORM THREAT THRU THIS EVENING...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited to Elevated.
	AREA...East of US highway 69.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending by mid-evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...East of US highway 69.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending by mid-evening.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...West-central and northwest Arkansas and extreme eastern Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending by mid-evening.

DISCUSSION...
A slow-moving cold front will collide with a very unstable and
strongly sheared air mass over eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas to bring scattered strong to severe storms this afternoon
and into the evening, primarily east of US highway 69. Very large
hail to 2 inches in diameter or greater and isolated damaging
wind are the primary threats. Low level shear isn't particularly
strong (especially compared to Monday night's event), but there is
enough to support some tornado threat with the more discrete
cells. Locally heavy rainfall may support an isolated flash flood
threat, especially across far northeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas where storms will have more of a tendency to train over
the same areas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY thru TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A slight chance of thunderstorms will remain across far southeast
Oklahoma on Thursday with dry and mild weather for areas further
north. The quiet weather pattern will continue for late week
into the weekend with thunderstorm chances returning by early
next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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