Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1209 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 843 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Scattered showers and storms have developed this evening
across northeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of a cold front
that currently stretches from near Miami to near Oilton.
Scattered showers and storms are expected to persist through
much of the night as the front pushes to the south and a
mid-level shortwave moves across southeast Oklahoma. A few
storms could become strong to marginally severe with large hail
the main concern. Have updated pops slightly for the remainder of
tonight. Otherwise, current forecast for tonight is on track.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The unsettled pattern will remain through the rest of the period,
with near daily shower and storm chances into the next week. some
severe potential will exists across the region, but particulars
will depend on the evolution of previous day's convection so the
details will be ironed out with future forecasts.

Friday looks to be the most tame day of the forecast period, with
most locations staying dry as a dryer airmass filters in behind
the cold front this evening. Lingering showers and storms will
remain possible across southeast Oklahoma and into the terrain of
western Arkansas where the front will stall through the day
Friday. Moisture will begin to return Friday evening as the weak
boundary moves back northward. Another complex of showers and
storms forming across western Kansas Friday evening could make its
way into northeast Oklahoma Saturday morning in a decaying state,
but periods of locally heavy rainfall will be possible,
especially across northeast Oklahoma Saturday morning. Another
disturbance is progged to advance northeastward across the
Southern Plains Saturday night into Sunday, bringing widespread
rain chances to the area through much of the day Sunday. Showers
and storms should increase Sunday morning across eastern Oklahoma
and move eastward into western Arkansas Sunday afternoon. Again,
severe potential will be low given the background environment but
anytime there are storms in May there is potential for some
embedded strong to severe storms.

As we head into next week, strong zonal flow aloft develops as a
lead shortwave trough ejects out of the Rockies and into the
Central and Northern Plains. At the surface, a frontal boundary
will then drop southeastward and likely set up camp somewhere
across the Southern or Central Plains while a dryline extends
southward across western to central Oklahoma and into Texas.
Periodic ripples in the flow aloft are forecast to advance across
the Plains states throughout the rest of the week. This, combined
with the strong flow aloft and continued low level moisture
advection into the region will create a scenario with at least
daily isolated to scattered storm development within the warm
sector. The large instability and persistent strong deep layer
shear would support severe weather with any storms that develop.
Mid level capping will limit the coverage of storms through the
first part of the week, likely confined to areas of increased
synoptic forcing where any speed max can increase convergence
along the dryline. More widespread, organized severe potential
will be probable during this time, but those details will come in
the coming days with better agreement on timing and location of
the various vort maxes that track through the region.
Nevertheless, be prepared for another round of springtime storms
across the Plains next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Ongoing showers and storms along and south of Interstate 44 will
continue to slowly spread south and eastward through the early
morning hours. Outside of near term thunderstorm impacts, MVFR to
periodic IFR ceilings are expected to expand in coverage and
persist through mid to late morning. Eventually ceilings erode
and/or rise into low VFR levels during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  78  61  74 /  10  70  60  90
FSM   64  81  65  77 /  10  70  50  90
MLC   65  80  63  76 /  20  70  70  90
BVO   59  76  57  73 /  10  70  50  80
FYV   61  80  60  75 /  10  70  40  90
BYV   60  79  60  73 /  10  70  40  80
MKO   62  77  62  74 /  10  70  60  90
MIO   61  76  59  72 /  10  70  40  90
F10   63  78  62  74 /  20  70  70  90
HHW   64  79  64  75 /  20  60  50  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
451 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
451 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This evening.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas ahead of an upper low and weak cold front.
Organized severe weather is not expected, but a few of these
storms could become severe briefly with hail and wind the main
threats. Locally heavy rainfall from these storms could lead to
flash flooding.

A complex of storms could organize tonight and move east across
southern Oklahoma. There is a limited risk of severe wind from
these storms if they were to move into southeast Oklahoma before
weakening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The unsettled weather pattern continues through the middle of next
week, with daily thunderstorm chances. The greatest potential for
significant severe weather will be from Monday onward as the flow
aloft strengthens. The potential for flash flooding will exist
with any pockets of locally heavy rainfall that occurs, especially
this weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1200 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

OKZ068>070-072-074-030530-
Haskell OK-Adair OK-Muskogee OK-Sequoyah OK-Cherokee OK-
1200 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL HASKELL...
NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH...SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR...SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE
AND EASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 AM CDT...

At 1200 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 5 miles south of Eldon to 4 miles northwest of
Webbers Falls. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tahlequah...                      Warner...
Vian...                           Gore...
Webbers Falls...                  Braggs...
Greenleaf State Park...           Pumpkin Center...
Cookson...                        Cherokee Landing State Park...
Bunch...                          Lake Tenkiller State Park...
Keefeton...                       Box...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 276 and
296.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3598 9492 3575 9465 3531 9517 3551 9535
      3555 9535 3555 9539 3557 9540
TIME...MOT...LOC 0500Z 329DEG 16KT 3585 9488 3554 9524

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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